CapitalKid Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 NWS is indicating that there will be a severe weather outbreak across the Deep South, but also predicting some bad weather for Kentucky and areas around the Ohio River. Any thoughts on this potential event? http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Dr. Forbes says tornado outbreak is likely. TORCON of 5 for day 5. TUESDAYA severe thunderstorm and tornado outbreak is likely, although there is some uncertainty over how far north unstable air will be able to reach as a warm front surges northward during the day. Severe thunderstorms in central and east LA, MS, west and north AL, east AR, southeast MO, south IL, south IN, KY, TN, extreme northwest GA. TORCON - 5 east MS, west AL; 4 - TN, KY, south IL, south IN, southwest MO; 3 rest of area. A squall line may push overnight into west NC, northwest SC, west GA and the west FL panhandle with spotty damaging gusts and a chance of a tornado. TORCON - 2 to 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Was there a severe weather event/outbreak on 12/28? Pretty sure there was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 not really around here. it looks like there were a few wind reports in the south. 12/23 had a widespread wind event in the ohio valley as well as a few strong tornadoes further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Still looks like areas south of Indpls are in line for the possibility of some svr straight line winds mixing down tomorrow evening. Enhanced risk currently is up to the Ohio River by Louisville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Clown map image of STP off 18Z NAM for tomorrow evening probably overdoing it from instability standpoint, but hey, this is only Groundhog Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 There is a solid pocket of MU CAPE... ...that lifts north with this, maybe a shot at some elevated convection and hailers. That is a good signal too that the lapse rates are pretty good with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Was there a severe weather event/outbreak on 12/28? Pretty sure there was. Down south, yeah, there were 3 days which started with the EF4 in the Dallas metro area. Bunch of discrete supercells with those events, which seems to be the style this cool season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 I wouldn't be surprised to see an isolated wind report or two as far north as Ann Arbor from the isolated thunderstorms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 I wouldn't be surprised to see an isolated wind report or two as far north as Ann Arbor from the isolated thunderstorms Ehhh note sure about that dude. Gonna be a pretty formidable stable layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 I wouldn't be surprised to see an isolated wind report or two as far north as Ann Arbor from the isolated thunderstormsWind no, hail maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0072NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0954 AM CST TUE FEB 02 2016AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NERN AR...SERN MO...SRN IL...WRN MSCONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLEVALID 021554Z - 021730ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENTSUMMARY...SOME UNCERTAINTY LINGERS CONCERNING TIMING...BUT TRENDSARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING STORM DEVELOPMENT CAPABLE OFPRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...WHICH COULDCOMMENCE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 17-18Z.DISCUSSION...STRONGEST UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID TOUPPER JET STREAK /100+ KT AT 500 MB/ NOW NOSING THROUGH THE LOWERMISSOURI VALLEY CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THEREGION. HOWEVER...GRADUAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ARE NOW UNDERWAYSOUTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE MIDDLE TO LOWER MISSISSIPPIVALLEY...AHEAD OF APPROACHING LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING.AS THIS CONTINUES...ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL COOLING...COUPLED WITHLOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION...APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TOINCREASING INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING INHIBITION. WEAK BOUNDARYLAYER DESTABILIZATION IS BEING AUGMENTED ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERNARKANSAS INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF WESTERN TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURIBOOTHEEL BY SURFACE HEATING. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT THEENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY CONDUCIVE TO BOUNDARY LAYERBASED STORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS MAY INCLUDE INTENSIFICATION OF ANAPPROACHING FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION...AND DISCRETE STORMDEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF IT.STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERESTORM DEVELOPMENT. AND STRONG TO EXTREME LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG A50+ KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET AXIS MAY SUPPORT LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONESCAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES AND LOCALLY ENHANCED DAMAGING WINDPOTENTIAL. THIS THREAT PROBABLY WILL DEVELOP FURTHER NORTHEASTWARDWITH WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION INTO AT LEAST PARTSOF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...KERR/GOSS.. 02/02/201 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Surface low contains to deepen at 992 mb in central KS as it moves ne. Discrete cells and multiple lines of storms may impact our southern subforum southward today. Could be quite an active day. Will be interesting to get the new SPC update shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 1000 Surface based CAPE edging into MO's bootheel with low 70's temps and low 60's dews per SPC meso page. Warm front slowly progressing northward. Tor watch issued from there southward with northern edge at Ohio River near EVV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Know this isn't in this region, but there is an incredibly strong and large tornado in W AL right now. Near Carrolton, AL, has a TORE on it. Has a black hole on the SRV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Know this isn't in this region, but there is an incredibly strong and large tornado in W AL right now. Near Carrolton, AL, has a TORE on it. Has a black hole on the SRV. This is why El Ninos are awesome. Videos like this, think I've watched it 10 times already. One of the best I've seen in awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Another strong tornado today. Look how dark the tornado gets from the 1 min mark on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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