Lava Rock Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 The CPV lost any remaining snow it had and it looks like early spring out there. I took these today: Wow, I had to do a double take. For snowmobiling we are starting over. Ground needs some cold and one storm won't cut it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 2, 2016 Author Share Posted February 2, 2016 I threw up in my mout a little bit at the sight of those pics Eyewall and that's no comment on your photography. Lava Rock, I was just thinking the same thing about the trails around here. Worst season since 2005-06, maybe even worse. 2006-07 started out awful too but we know how that ended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 I threw up in my mout a little bit at the sight of those pics Eyewall and that's no comment on your photography. Lava Rock, I was just thinking the same thing about the trails around here. Worst season since 2005-06, maybe even worse. 2006-07 started out awful too but we know how that ended. It can't get any worse that is for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 I threw up in my mout a little bit at the sight of those pics Eyewall and that's no comment on your photography. Lava Rock, I was just thinking the same thing about the trails around here. Worst season since 2005-06, maybe even worse. 2006-07 started out awful too but we know how that ended. It's pretty bad outside of the far north, but I think 2006 was much worse. Have not heard of folks scavenging mall snowpiles to patch lower elevation snomo trails to allow access to higher terrain that still had snow. Folks in The Forks and Greenville did a lot of that in 2006. Hope conditions don't descend to that abyssal level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 The similarities to another strong El Nino in 1982-83 is fairly impressive. I know some of us were joking about that winter because it was the only year with 0" snow depth on December 31st...but then this year put up a 0" spot on Christmas Day which is now second for all-time latest 0" reading at the stake. Anyway, fairly remarkable comparison to me. The good news is that the second half had some good storms and a big meteorological "spring" snowfall season (March, April, May). So although 1982-83 was a rough winter, there was a fun period in March/April/May. I don't think we'd complain at the ski areas with several good storms mixed in between nickels and dimes. Even these types of storms wouldn't save the winter, but it would at least make for a fun couple months. Spring storms in 1983: March 12-15...18" March 28-29...15" April 11-12...16" April 17-21...26" (including 15" in 24 hours on the 17th) May 9-10...16" Wow, I thought ‘06-‘07 was a lot like this season, but the similarity between those profiles uncanny; thanks for putting up the analysis. I’ve got the comparison with ‘06-‘07 below, and you can see the similarities there, but the ‘06-‘07 snowpack was already starting take off by this point. Who can say if we’ll have a second half like ’82-’83 or ‘06-‘07, but the models do suggest at least a return to our typically snowy NNE regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 January precipitation totals: 26.2” Snow/2.43” L.E. January is over, and total snowfall at our site was 26.2” for the month. That’s still well below average of course, but actually somewhat respectable among the rather pitiful snowfall we’ve had for Januarys as of late. It’s only a few inches behind last season (29.5”), and it easily surpassed the previous two seasons of ’12-’13 (21.9”) and ’13-‘14 (15.8”). It also came very close to ‘07-‘08 (27.6”), and all in all was quite the improvement over what we experienced this past December, which was by far the lowest in my records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Even with the rain tomorrow, looks like The County will end up with net positive, with snow on the frontside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Wow, I thought ‘06-‘07 was a lot like this season, but the similarity between those profiles uncanny; thanks for putting up the analysis. I’ve got the comparison with ‘06-‘07 below, and you can see the similarities there, but the ‘06-‘07 snowpack was already starting take off by this point. Who can say if we’ll have a second half like ’82-’83 or ‘06-‘07, but the models do suggest at least a return to our typically snowy NNE regime. '06-'07 turned out fine because the snowpack went above average in early february. '82-'83 not until late April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 '06-'07 turned out fine because the snowpack went above average in early february. '82-'83 not until late April. Yeah there's a big difference between the two in that regard. The storms may still come but like ADK was saying, at some point it just seems to be too little too late. But heck, we'll all take everything we can get, who are we kidding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Yeah there's a big difference between the two in that regard. The storms may still come but like ADK was saying, at some point it just seems to be too little too late. But heck, we'll all take everything we can get, who are we kidding. I have a vivid recollection of the **** eating grin on my face after Vday '07. that was some epic skiing. I'm holding out hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 2, 2016 Author Share Posted February 2, 2016 I have a vivid recollection of the **** eating grin on my face after Vday '07. that was some epic skiing. I'm holding out hope. Our snowmobile club's Tucker Cat got stuck trying to groom trails after that. There was a lot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 28/21F as of 8:30pm. Will be curious to see what happens on the front end tomorrow AM. Models always warm me up to quickly at the surface. Don't know how much will be snow, sleet or freezing rain before we crack 32F. Gray has me at 1" of snow/sleet and between .10 and .25" ice accum. Deer all over the pastures this evening enjoying the grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Steady sleet as I step outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 19F with freezing rain at the summit. 23F at 2,600ft. Bouncing between 27-29F in the base area with mostly sleet. Aggregates of sleet at that. Like rock candy falling from the sky. Winds near 50mph upper mountain. This is at least the second time this season we've been making snow while sleet and freezing rain is falling. Its that cold on the upper mountain that adding compressed air is making snow, but Mother Nature can't even figure out how to get it to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 19F with freezing rain at the summit. 23F at 2,600ft. Bouncing between 27-29F in the base area with mostly sleet. Aggregates of sleet at that. Like rock candy falling from the sky. Winds near 50mph upper mountain. This is at least the second time this season we've been making snow while sleet and freezing rain is falling. Its that cold on the upper mountain that adding compressed air is making snow, but Mother Nature can't even figure out how to get it to snow. Just took a peek at our sounding so far, and there is a warm layer near the surface, but another around H7. Not quite saturated over GYX yet, but not dry either. So I'm not surprised it's sleet to start given that all the dry air is at H8, and warmth at H7. Also makes sense that the summit is FZRA given that profile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Winter Weather Advisories are up in the area for the various forms of mixed precipitation – totals expected are up to an inch or two: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Just took a peek at our sounding so far, and there is a warm layer near the surface, but another around H7. Not quite saturated over GYX yet, but not dry either. So I'm not surprised it's sleet to start given that all the dry air is at H8, and warmth at H7. Also makes sense that the summit is FZRA given that profile. Great info, which is also why the cloud level is so high. Its sleeting but the base of the clouds have been well above the top of the mountain. Good visibility at all levels. Normally when it precipitates, the cloud level drops into that 3,000-4,000ft range...so the dry air at H8 makes sense from that standpoint. Also in these CAD situations, the clouds will be at like 2,000ft and above. But it is efficiently precipitating from whatever layer is saturated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 35F and sheets of RA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Event totals: 0.1” Snow/0.01” L.E. The tenth of an inch of accumulation on the board this morning was mostly sleet, but there seemed to be some granular flakes in there as well. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.1 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0 Snow Density: 10.0% H2O Temperature: 34.9 F Sky: Light Sleet Snow at the stake: 2.5 inches This event will kick off the month with regard to frozen accumulation, and it looks like the next potential storm would come through the area on Sunday. It looks like more exciting weather times are on the way according to the BTV NWS: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 630 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016 .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... BY SUNDAY THE EXCITEMENT STARTS TO PICK UP AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE THERE WILL BE A VERY SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT WITH THE SHORTWAVE SO THERE WILL BE SOME CONCERN WITH CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING. BEHIND THE FRONT AT 925MB THE TEMPS DROP FROM -8C TO -20C OVER ABOUT 100 MILES. EVEN THOUGH WE WILL BE LOOKING AT A GLANCING BLOW, GIVEN HOW TIGHT THAT GRADIENT IS I DO EXPECT THE AREA TO SEE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN NEW YORK FROM MASSENA THROUGH THE VT/NY BORDER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Honestly, I have to say that if feb. was a repeat of jan, I'm not sure I'd want to see snow in March and April.....just let's get on to the nice warmth. That said, if we start to have something resembling winter in Feb. I'll be more willing to embrace a snowy March and April. My sentiments exactly, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Great info, which is also why the cloud level is so high. Its sleeting but the base of the clouds have been well above the top of the mountain. Good visibility at all levels. Normally when it precipitates, the cloud level drops into that 3,000-4,000ft range...so the dry air at H8 makes sense from that standpoint. Also in these CAD situations, the clouds will be at like 2,000ft and above. But it is efficiently precipitating from whatever layer is saturated. Being farther west, you're probably above freezing at that H7 layer aloft. Partial melt there, then refreeze through that dry layer around the summits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Being farther west, you're probably above freezing at that H7 layer aloft. Partial melt there, then refreeze through that dry layer around the summits. Still cold. 4,000ft...22F 3,600ft...21F 2,600ft...25F 1,500ft...30F Just wind-whipped sleet. Lovely. Gusting to 72mph at the summit right now. Its like getting shot in the face with a pellet gun if you catch it wrong, ha. Facemask required. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Still cold. 4,000ft...22F 3,600ft...21F 2,600ft...25F 1,500ft...30F Just wind-whipped sleet. Lovely. Gusting to 72mph at the summit right now. Its like getting shot in the face with a pellet gun if you catch it wrong, ha. Facemask required. Must feel like getting shot with a pellet gun, wicked! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 I gotta go up in elevation! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Plymouth State snow level radar is saying between 7 and 8 kft warm layer height. Matches our sounding almost spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Plymouth State snow level radar is saying between 7 and 8 kft warm layer height. Matches our sounding almost spot on. Yeah MWN still in the low to mid teens. Crazy it's that cold from 1,000-6,000ft but still too warm way up there to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 This is pretty much rock bottom today morale wise seeing it rain with bare ground in prime climo time. Here is to hoping the Euro is on to something next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 30.7F light freezing rain. Precip began 90 minutes minutes ago as sleet. Temp fell to 30.3F at onset and is now creeping up. Driveway and our dirt road is ice glazed but I hear main roads are fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Sleet. Just enough to cover the ground and make walking exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Just pounding sleet here at the ski area. Hoping to eat up as much QPF as possible with this frozen or freezing precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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