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NNE Winter. Will it ever snow again?


mreaves

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30.9F light snow.  1" or so.  Temp still slowly dropping and its actually blowing off the roof a bit.   Temp got up to 32.2F this afternoon and with the sun angle it melted some off.  With darkness approaching its accumulating again, even sticking to my dirt road.  Too bad there is not much qpf to my SW.

post-268-0-84431200-1457992640_thumb.jpg

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powderfreak, on 14 Mar 2016 - 3:47 PM, said:

"People ask me all the time how I'm going to make Vermont winters great again. Let me tell you, No one is going to make Vermont winters better than I will. We never win anymore. The storms all go to the south. Or the north. I can tell you that they do cause I know. And Tahoe is kicking our ass. They eat our shirts in snow totals. We have a seven hundred inch snow deficit. Nobody will negotiate better for snow than I will. We are going to build a wall to keep all the nasty New Hampshire and New York City residents out. The wall will be huge. And New Hampshire will pay for it. Mark my words they will. I will place a huge beautiful golden door in the l wall because not all of them are mean. Maybe one or two percent aren't. I know how to build beautiful walls. I'm a builder." #MakeVTWintersGreatAgain

-@Eric Morton

New Hampshire already pays for the bridges across the Conn River! It is time for Vt to take out it's check book and pay for the wall. Then when everyone wants to cross the bridge for tax free shopping, tough sh*t! You can't get there from here!!( I see where Bernie gets his ideas for free everything!! :) )

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Event totals: 0.7” Snow/0.22” L.E.

 

I saw some sleet at times during the day today in Burlington, but as was mentioned earlier there was no accumulation there.  While heading home from the CPV into the mountains, I was able to see that visible snow accumulations at valley level started right around Jonesville and increased from there as you headed east.  We picked up 0.7” from today’s snow and sleet activity, and there’s been a bit of additional sleet this evening to add another tenth of an inch of accumulation

 

Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.7 inches

New Liquid: 0.22 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 3.2

Snow Density: 31.4% H2O

Temperature: 34.0 F

Sky: Sleet

Snow at the stake: 1.0 inches

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Looking outside at white ground again seems odd for whatever reason...not much but even the dog is rolling in it like its some rarity.  Been a rough winter for events, even an inch or less.

 

Very light sleet still falling, almost like snow grains they are so small. 

 

Classic March with the above freezing temperatures followed by the wet-bulb cooling to below freezing.

 

 

 

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Another victim of Winter 2015-2016.... The famed Stowe Derby Cross Country ski race has been officially canceled for just the third time in the 71 years the event has been run.  This is just the second time since World War II that the race has been canceled due to lack of snow...showing you just how reliable the snow usually is.  And one of those other cancellations was due to lack of interest around the war-time.

 

So there's another proof of how bad this winter has been when the Derby gets canceled for only the second time since WWII. 

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Another victim of Winter 2015-2016.... The famed Stowe Derby Cross Country ski race has been officially canceled for just the third time in the 71 years the event has been run.  This is just the second time since World War II that the race has been canceled due to lack of snow...showing you just how reliable the snow usually is. 

 

So there's another proof of how bad this winter has been when the Derby gets canceled for only the second time since WWII. 

 

Wow that is a big deal.

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Event totals: 0.8” Snow/0.24” L.E.

 

We picked up a final tenth of an inch of sleet yesterday evening that went into this morning’s observations:

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.1 inches

New Liquid: 0.02 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 5.0

Snow Density: 20.0% H2O

Temperature: 36.1 F

Sky: Cloudy

Snow at the stake: 1.0 inches

 

It looks like the next chance for snow in the area could be in the Friday timeframe.  There’s not talk of accumulations at this point, but comments from the BTV NWS forecast discussion are below:

 

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

AS OF 310 PM EDT TUESDAY...FRIDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OUR GENERAL FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST AND SO ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BY LIFTED OROGRAPHICALLY AND RESULT IN SOME MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS. 925MB TEMPS WILL BE -12C TO -9C DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND THEN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WHERE THE LOWS WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOW TEENS.

 

I’m also passing along a few shots from Saturday at Bolton and Sunday at StoweWith the warm temperatures the spring skiing was excellent of course, but I was also impressed with the light this weekend – cool sunset light among some clouds on Saturday evening, and just tons of available light on Sunday afternoon.  At times I was able to shoot action at 1/8000 sec at F/2.8 and found myself just about pinned at ISO 100.  I almost had to stop down to avoid overexposure, but it’s hard to complain – there’s nothing like super-fast shutter speeds for freezing absolutely everything.  Additional images are in the reports linked above.

 

12MAR16A.jpg

 

13MAR16A.jpg

 

13MAR16D.jpg

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KALB daily departures since December 1:

 

80 positive days 

20 negative days 

 

50 days +10 or greater 

17 days +20 or greater 

7 days -5 or less

4 days -10 or less (4 days in a row Feb 12-15)

 

 

Going back further, November, which can have wintry weather, was more of the same with only 4 departure days:  -3, -5, -6, -2

 

Some of the data blows my mind.  Like 50 +10 departure days!  With only 4 -10 departure days that came all in a row.  It's like winter never happened.  It was a southern NJ winter in upstate NY.  Add to that 10.3" total snowfall at the airport (local measurements closer to 8") and you have the least wintry winter since the earliest accounts of settlers in this area.

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KALB daily departures since December 1:

 

80 positive days 

20 negative days 

 

50 days +10 or greater 

17 days +20 or greater 

7 days -5 or less

4 days -10 or less (4 days in a row Feb 12-15)

 

 

Going back further, November, which can have wintry weather, was more of the same with only 4 departure days:  -3, -5, -6, -2

 

Some of the data blows my mind.  Like 50 +10 departure days!  With only 4 -10 departure days that came all in a row.  It's like winter never happened.  It was a southern NJ winter in upstate NY.  Add to that 10.3" total snowfall at the airport (local measurements closer to 8") and you have the least wintry winter since the earliest accounts of settlers in this area. 

 

You would hope that this was the worst of the worst and you will never see it this bad again in our lifetime....we hope :yikes:.  8" is so biblically bad for ALB, its hard to fathom.  Even 25" would be historically bad. I feel like I have posted this map a lot this year :lol:

 

Maybe there are a few ALB locals who are 103+yrs olds and were around for 1912-13 and 15-16. They got to experience the top 2 futility years, lucky them!

 

I really have no idea about futility for my location, but I would guess being at 29"(assuming I stay there) currently would be top 5 and at least top 10 considering ALB number 5 least snowiest is 27"

 

Season_LeastSnowiest(1).JPG

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You would hope that this was the worst of the worst and you will never see it this bad again in our lifetime....we hope :yikes:.  8" is so biblically bad for ALB, its hard to fathom.  Even 25" would be historically bad. I feel like I have posted this map a lot this year :lol:

 

Maybe there are a few ALB locals who are 103+yrs olds and were around for 1912-13 and 15-16. They got to experience the top 2 futility years, lucky them!

 

I really have no idea about futility for my location, but I would guess being at 29"(assuming I stay there) currently would be top 5 and at least top 10 considering ALB number 5 least snowiest is 27"

Without the Lakes I'm not sure ALB would have gotten any snow this year.  I suppose lots of places in western NY owe most of their snowfall to lake effect, but usually ENY gets some synoptic contribution - actually it's usually mostly synoptic snow.  Just not this year.

 

I consider anything under about 25" a pretty bad winter in the valleys around here.  So I would generally lump this winter in with the lousy ones.  But usually there is a least one 6" event mixed in, even in the ratters.  What makes this winter really stand out is the complete lack of any snow event (max was 1.5") and the incredible season long warmth.  It wiped out all snow mobiling and severely shortened the ice fishing season.

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Without the Lakes I'm not sure ALB would have gotten any snow this year.  I suppose lots of places in western NY owe most of their snowfall to lake effect, but usually ENY gets some synoptic contribution - actually it's usually mostly synoptic snow.  Just not this year.

 

I consider anything under about 25" a pretty bad winter in the valleys around here.  So I would generally lump this winter in with the lousy ones.  But usually there is a least one 6" event mixed in, even in the ratters.  What makes this winter really stand out is the complete lack of any snow event (max was 1.5") and the incredible season long warmth.  It wiped out all snow mobiling and severely shortened the ice fishing season.

Oh, I think you are 100% right on that one.  ALB's snow was pretty much all LE streamers. Like you said, that factors in to their snowfall totals every year, but I honestly think they would be at 1" or 2" without the lakes.

 

Without orographic help or the lakes I would be only around 5-6" I think.  Again, I know that is bigger part here than in ALB, but still just shows their was no synoptic snow to speak of anywhere in WNE and ENY.

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Musings...

 

First a BIG thank you to PF.  I have thought getting Euro info was very expensive and he told me about WeatherBELL yesterday.  Only $20 bucks a month.  Signed up and through enjoyed watching the 12Z Euro come in.  Kept comparing the panels to last nights panels thinking I was doing something wrong, but no huge shift west.  Maybe we are not finished and this will be our storm in C/NNE.

 

60F and beautiful today

 

Eyewall great pictures.  The new Phantom 4 came out yesterday with collision avoidance and from what the reviews are saying the changes to the camera are even giving better pictures.  Now I want one....$1499!

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Musings...

 

First a BIG thank you to PF.  I have thought getting Euro info was very expensive and he told me about WeatherBELL yesterday.  Only $20 bucks a month.  Signed up and through enjoyed watching the 12Z Euro come in.  Kept comparing the panels to last nights panels thinking I was doing something wrong, but no huge shift west.  Maybe we are not finished and this will be our storm in C/NNE.

 

60F and beautiful today

 

Eyewall great pictures.  The new Phantom 4 came out yesterday with collision avoidance and from what the reviews are saying the changes to the camera are even giving better pictures.  Now I want one....$1499!

 

Got to love how it came out 2 months after getting mine but I wasn't going to spend that much anyway.

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