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NNE Winter. Will it ever snow again?

mreaves

By mreaves,
in New England

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backedgeapproaching

backedgeapproaching

Posted
Posted

Don't think much model guidance supports 4-6" even in the higher elevations in SVT..but that is what ALY is going with as of now. Although BTV has a similar map as well.

 

 

ALY DISCO:

 

THERE ARE A FEW FACTORS THAT WILL BE IN PLAY THAT STILL RESULT IN
A HIGH ENOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE THAT SOME WINTRY MIX AND LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION...SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND BERKSHIRES. THE FIRST IS THE NEARBY PRESENCE OF THE
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH COMBINED WITH THE APPROACHING
SURFACE LOW...WILL INDUCE A PERSISTENT NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY
AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW THAT WILL ALLOW ENOUGH COLD AIR TO FILTER SOUTH
TO ABOUT INTERSTATE 90 FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO
THIS COLD AIR BEING IN PLACE INITIALLY...WET-BULB EFFECTS WILL
LIKELY AID IN A SNOW AND/OR WINTRY MIX POTENTIAL AT THE
PRECIPITATION ONSET ESPECIALLY IF THE PRECIPITATION IS MODERATE TO
HEAVY...WITH DYNAMICAL COOLING EFFECTS FURTHER ADDING INFLUENCE

 

 

 

                                                                               ALY

 

12798818_1192783847400165_64721995605059

 

 

 

                                                                                          BTV

image1.png

 

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ENYsnow

ENYsnow

Posted
Posted

Don't think much model guidance supports 4-6" even in the higher elevations in SVT..but that is what ALY is going with as of now. Although BTV has a similar map as well.

 

 

ALY DISCO:

 

THERE ARE A FEW FACTORS THAT WILL BE IN PLAY THAT STILL RESULT IN

A HIGH ENOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE THAT SOME WINTRY MIX AND LIGHT

TO MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR PRIMARILY ACROSS THE

SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION...SOUTHERN

VERMONT AND BERKSHIRES. THE FIRST IS THE NEARBY PRESENCE OF THE

DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH COMBINED WITH THE APPROACHING

SURFACE LOW...WILL INDUCE A PERSISTENT NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY

AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW THAT WILL ALLOW ENOUGH COLD AIR TO FILTER SOUTH

TO ABOUT INTERSTATE 90 FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO

THIS COLD AIR BEING IN PLACE INITIALLY...WET-BULB EFFECTS WILL

LIKELY AID IN A SNOW AND/OR WINTRY MIX POTENTIAL AT THE

PRECIPITATION ONSET ESPECIALLY IF THE PRECIPITATION IS MODERATE TO

HEAVY...WITH DYNAMICAL COOLING EFFECTS FURTHER ADDING INFLUENCE

 

Not quite sure what ALY is seeing, maybe their far northwest zones see 1-3" but I'd be surprised if ageo flow and wetbulb effects counteract the rapid surge of mid-level warmth.

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted

A few snow pellets overnight, and about half a mile away a ground-covering flurry.  Also, mixing ahead of the CF bumped the temp to 35 from the 9 PM obs of 28.  Then it dropped to 12 by 7 AM.  Looks like the 4th consecutive system that drops a couple inches then almost immediately washes them away.  Feb featured 4 such events, so why not start March on the same track?

 

Feb. wx:

 

Avg max:  32.1   +3.3

Avg min:  10.7   +5.1

Avg temp: 21.4   +4.2.

DJM avg:  24.40   Mildest of 18 years here, just ahead of 01-02 (24.35)

 

Highest:  50, on 2/1  That day's mean of 37.5 was also tops, and 2/21  the mildest low, 31.

Lowest:  -22 on 2/15  The previous day was 2/-17, for coldest day and coldest max.

On 2/15 the temps were 17/-22, and on the next day 46/14, for a change of 32.5.  The only bigger 1-day change I've found in my records is for March 19-20, 1976, in Ft. Kent:  24/-25 then 50/19.  That 75° rise in about 32 hr is also unmatched.

 

Precip:  4.95",  +1.97"  Largest 1-day was 2/16 with 1.12", and largest storm 24-25 with 2.05".

 

Snowfall:  17.7"   4.3" BN but even that is deceptively close.  The 4 snow/quick-melt storms totaled 10.0" of the month's total, and together provided about 24 hr of added snow cover.  Average snow depth was 11.4", 6.9" BN and only 2/2006 had an appreciably lower avg depth.

 

In total, a very frustrating month for lovers of wintry wx, especially in NNE where AN precip almost always results in AN snowfall.  This was a month that shows why "almost" must be part of the equation.

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backedgeapproaching

backedgeapproaching

Posted
Posted

A few snow pellets overnight, and about half a mile away a ground-covering flurry.  Also, mixing ahead of the CF bumped the temp to 35 from the 9 PM obs of 28.  Then it dropped to 12 by 7 AM.  Looks like the 4th consecutive system that drops a couple inches then almost immediately washes them away.  Feb featured 4 such events, so why not start March on the same track?

 

Feb. wx:

 

Avg max:  32.1   +3.3

Avg min:  10.7   +5.1

Avg temp: 21.4   +4.2.

DJM avg:  24.40   Mildest of 18 years here, just ahead of 01-02 (24.35)

 

Highest:  50, on 2/1  That day's mean of 37.5 was also tops, and 2/21  the mildest low, 31.

Lowest:  -22 on 2/15  The previous day was 2/-17, for coldest day and coldest max.

On 2/15 the temps were 17/-22, and on the next day 46/14, for a change of 32.5.  The only bigger 1-day change I've found in my records is for March 19-20, 1976, in Ft. Kent:  24/-25 then 50/19.  That 75° rise in about 32 hr is also unmatched.

 

Precip:  4.95",  +1.97"  Largest 1-day was 2/16 with 1.12", and largest storm 24-25 with 2.05".

 

Snowfall:  17.7"   4.3" BN but even that is deceptively close.  The 4 snow/quick-melt storms totaled 10.0" of the month's total, and together provided about 24 hr of added snow cover.  Average snow depth was 11.4", 6.9" BN and only 2/2006 had an appreciably lower avg depth.

 

In total, a very frustrating month for lovers of wintry wx, especially in NNE where AN precip almost always results in AN snowfall.  This was a month that shows why "almost" must be part of the equation.

 

You really do hold snow cover well there. Even in this putrid year, your average depth was almost 12".

 

Meanwhile here, snow sublimates faster than you can type sublimate..lol.

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wxeyeNH

wxeyeNH

Posted
Posted

And in the meantime, GYX upgraded us to 4-8... ??? So confused

Well Alex today the model trends have been NW with the low.  So downgrades not upgrades would make sense.  Seems like the low is now going to track over NW Vermont.  Yesterday was S Vermont.  So I would think all areas of NH are going over to freezing rain or rain. It's interesting to see how cold it is today just over the boarder.  Montreal is around 12F so as soon as this low passes I would guess there is going to be a really rapid freeze.  This is unlike the other storms where it was a slow cool down.  The trick is not to clear any snow until after the rain stops or everything will remain icy for the next several days.  

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J.Spin

J.Spin

Posted
Posted

I haven’t seen any changes in the BTV NWS advisories map yet for this upcoming system (Winter Storm Quo), but I see there’s been an update to the projected accumulations map.  In general the totals have been tapered back an inch or two since the previous version and pushed to the northwest, although there’s a huge change out near Watertown, where there was a large area of 8-12” that now shows <1”.

 

01MAR16C.jpg

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted

You really do hold snow cover well there. Even in this putrid year, your average depth was almost 12".

 

Meanwhile here, snow sublimates faster than you can type sublimate..lol.

 

Biggest snow-saver this year has been CAD, such that we only get into the low 40s while AUG/BML et.al. touch 50+, and we're only at serious melt temps for a few hours.  The current 10" is hard enough that stomping a significant footprint involves some pain.

 

GYX current forecast for southern Franklin has 3-5" overnight and 4-7 total.  I'm guessing we struggle to reach half the low end, would be glad to be wrong because that much SN with +/-1" qpf and quick-arriving CF would mean a net gain.  Not that it matters - gfs 16-day suggests winter is done, and GYX's new AFD talks of "spring pattern" arriving sometime next week.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

Biggest snow-saver this year has been CAD, such that we only get into the low 40s while AUG/BML et.al. touch 50+, and we're only at serious melt temps for a few hours.  The current 10" is hard enough that stomping a significant footprint involves some pain.

 

GYX current forecast for southern Franklin has 3-5" overnight and 4-7 total.  I'm guessing we struggle to reach half the low end, would be glad to be wrong because that much SN with +/-1" qpf and quick-arriving CF would mean a net gain.  Not that it matters - gfs 16-day suggests winter is done, and GYX's new AFD talks of "spring pattern" arriving sometime next week.

 

I can't wait, Early ice out looks like a safe bet for opening day 4/01, I need to edit this, For the lakes i usually travel to, Sebago never had ice in.................lol

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wxeyeNH

wxeyeNH

Posted
Posted

Well that was fun while it lasted...for a day or so there it looked like we might sneak away with something but for 4 runs in a row this has gone steadily downhill now.

 

 

PF,  looks like I get more snow than you according to the GFS.  A solid 3"!  I'm at 28.2/7F right now so should drop into the mid 20's for abit before warming up.  It's March now and with the luck in NNE doesn't really make a difference.  Maybe this will be the biggest snowfall of the season for the Whites?

 

All the Bob houses are already off Newfound Lake.  Last year this time we were having car races on the lake. Tale of 2 seasons although last year was still frustrating watching storm after storm hit south of us for the most part.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

PF,  looks like I get more snow than you according to the GFS.  A solid 3"!  I'm at 28.2/7F right now so should drop into the mid 20's for abit before warming up.  It's March now and with the luck in NNE doesn't really make a difference.  Maybe this will be the biggest snowfall of the season for the Whites?

 

All the Bob houses are already off Newfound Lake.  Last year this time we were having car races on the lake. Tale of 2 seasons although last year was still frustrating watching storm after storm hit south of us for the most part.

 

Yeah, GFS actually doesn't even give us much precip at all.  Mid-level dryslot is on top of us quickly (from here to Pittsburgh, NH to Rangley, ME...looks like you guys get a better shot of moisture to the south as the SE flow low level jet ramps up (sliding east) when thermal profiles are colder.  Though a good deal of that could also be freezing rain or IP that the model is thinking snow.

 

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eekuasepinniW

eekuasepinniW

Posted
Posted

Yeah, GFS actually doesn't even give us much precip at all.  Mid-level dryslot is on top of us quickly...looks like you guys get a better shot of moisture as the SE flow low level jet ramps up (sliding east) when thermal profiles are colder.  Though a good deal of that could also be freezing rain or IP that the model is thinking snow.

 

attachicon.gifgfs_tprecip_neng_9.png

Hey, I'm gonna jackpot.
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mreaves

mreaves

Posted
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Posted

1" - 1.5" of snow and sleet which was then pummeled by heavy rain.  Quite the mixed bag heading into work, a little bit of everything including giant globs of snow.  At least there won't be much to melt and the ground isn't that frozen.  Maybe we'll get a good start on golf season, though my club won't be opening until April 15th.

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