backedgeapproaching Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Past few runs have not really looked great down here for the midweek system, 12Z Euro trended a little worse. Maybe a sloppy inch or two here. Its pretty remarkable for ALB at this point. Euro has nothing over the next 7 days for them. Then we torch the following week. They are going to need a late March/Early April miracle to just get into double figures. Obviously something can still pop up, but all time futility is within reach. I think they are around 8" and futility is 13.8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Snow squalls this evening? 247 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016 ...SNOW SQUALLS EXPECTED THIS EVENING... SNOW SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WHILE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO AN INCH OR SO...SNOW SQUALLS WILL BRING A 30 MINUTE PERIOD OF VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS ONE-HALF MILE PRODUCING WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. THE SUDDEN CHANGE IN VISIBILITY THAT SNOW SQUALLS PRODUCE COULD LEAD TO TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. EXPECT SNOW SQUALLS TO DEVELOP IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BETWEEN 7 TO 9 PM...THE ADIRONDACKS BETWEEN 8 AND 10 PM...AND IN THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OF VERMONT AND NEW YORK BETWEEN 9 PM AND 11 PM. AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE TEENS OVERNIGHT...ANY ACCUMULATED SNOW ON ROADS WILL FREEZE AND LEAD TO SLIPPERY TRAVEL ON UNTREATED ROADS AFTER SNOW HAS ENDED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 BTV has issued Advisories for Vermont and a Winter Storm Watch for the Adirondacks and their NY zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 I was just checking my local forecast and it looks like the BTV NWS grids are being updated – our point forecast says we’re under a Winter Weather Advisory and accumulations for the storm sum to the 4-8” range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 BTV has issued Advisories for Vermont and a Winter Storm Watch for the Adirondacks and their NY zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Current projected accumulations map and advisory text: WWUS41 KBTV 292008 WSWBTV URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 308 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016 NYZ035-VTZ001>012-016>019-010900- /O.NEW.KBTV.WW.Y.0008.160302T0600Z-160303T0600Z/ EASTERN ESSEX-GRAND ISLE-WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX- WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON- ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND-WINDSOR-EASTERN FRANKLIN- EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN RUTLAND- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PORT HENRY...TICONDEROGA...ALBURGH... SOUTH HERO...ST. ALBANS...NEWPORT...ISLAND POND...BURLINGTON... JOHNSON...STOWE...ST. JOHNSBURY...MONTPELIER...MIDDLEBURY... VERGENNES...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH...RUTLAND...SPRINGFIELD... WHITE RIVER JUNCTION...ENOSBURG FALLS...RICHFORD...UNDERHILL... BRISTOL...RIPTON...EAST WALLINGFORD...KILLINGTON 308 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WINTRY MIXED PRECIPITATION...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY. * LOCATIONS...ALL OF NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT...AND THE SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OF NEW YORK. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OF HEAVY DENSE SNOW...ALONG WITH SLEET AND UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE. * MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATE...UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR...MAINLY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. * TIMING...SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING AND TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY. SOME AREAS MAY ALSO SEE RAIN MIX IN BEFORE TRANSITIONING BACK TO SNOW DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY EVENING. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL RESULT FROM ICY AND SLIPPERY ROAD SURFACES DUE TO MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL AND WINTRY MIXED PRECIPITATION. * WINDS...WEST 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...LOWS 1 BELOW TO 25 ABOVE ZERO. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. * VISIBILITIES...DOWN TO LESS THAN ONE MILE AT TIMES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL MEDIA...OR GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS WEATHER SITUATION. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 The zoom in forecast looks to have me around 4 or 5 inches yet I doubt it and am unmoved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 As expected down here..meh less than 1" here. Maybe 1-2" above 1500Ft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Updated map for projected snow accumulations through one of the headlines on the BTV NWS home page: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Looks good to me! I'll take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 The 18z 4km NAM/WRF is so close to a big event, but not quite there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 oh the agony! I'm thinking this trends better. no science behind that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 oh the agony! I'm thinking this trends better. no science behind that. We always worry on south flow with mid-level warming. I could see both happening, either a 1-4" slop/mixed event, or a 5-8" snow/sleet event. Tough call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 oh the agony! I'm thinking this trends better. no science behind that. Hope it does. Just compared the 12Z to 18Z GFS and it seems the low is about 25 miles further NW on the new run. It will be interesting for me with a track right over Dendriteland. Definitely a switch to freezing rain but could the CAD stay in long enough to keep me just below freezing? Once the low passes a flash freeze so perhaps a wintry appeal will return and stick around for while with the cold air mass coming in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Hope it does. Just compared the 12Z to 18Z GFS and it seems the low is about 25 miles further NW on the new run. It will be interesting for me with a track right over Dendriteland. Definitely a switch to freezing rain but could the CAD stay in long enough to keep me just below freezing? Once the low passes a flash freeze so perhaps a wintry appeal will return and stick around for while with the cold air mass coming in. Yeah that's definitely a worse run. Much more rain and less snow up this way. The low moved from tracking over S/VT to C/VT and that's enough to make a big difference in this event. That would lead to a more 1-4" solution than a 4-8" solution from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Back to the quarry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
borderwx Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 The other coach I was working with yesterday at Stowe was asking when we were going to start taking the students to some of the other off piste/sidecountry spots that we haven’t hit yet this season, and I told him I was waiting for the Mt. Mansfield Stake to hit the 40” mark to give us that extra margin of coverage I’d like to see in some spots. The stake is currently at 34”, and it’s possible this is the week the depth finally gets there. It looks like there are 2 to 3 potential systems in the pipeline this week, and the forecast for the higher elevations of Mansfield over the next few days shows 5-10”+ of accumulation. If that Tuesday/Wednesday system breaks a bit more favorable with respect to snow that could really help, but even as the forecast stands it looks like a net gain. Should be pretty free to head for steeper terrain J by the weekend. I stayed to mellow pitches, the combo of disbelief and not having been out yet at all allowed me to enjoy the old stand by pitches that I knew were largely reef free. I was surprised by the depths in the brook. This has a good winter for preserving my work time off, thinking work might not be a good idea for me on wednesday:) we'll see. edit: to keep up with the boo hoo's, we are back to all grass here at the house after today's warm rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 …it should be fun to see what the BTV NWS forecast discussion has this afternoon after the meteorologists digest the latest model data. Some of this afternoon’s thoughts from the BTV NWS; their current thinking is that the line of mixed precipitation will be slicing through the northern half of the state with 5-10” where the precipitation stays all snow to the north and west: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 642 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016 .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 445 PM EST MONDAY...STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING WINTER STORM TO THE AREA...STARTING AS SNOW IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TUESDAY EVENING. LOW WILL TRACK FROM OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO SOUTHEASTERN VT BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THIS TRACK WILL KEEP COLDER NE FLOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THEREFORE KEEP PRECIP AS ALL SNOW...ALSO ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN ALL SNOW THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. AS FOR THE WARM NOSE...EXPECT MIXED PRECIP TO SPREAD FROM SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. STEADY SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS FOR LATE WEDNESDAY WITH POSSIBLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 5-10 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ZONES ACROSS VT. AREAS SOUTH AND EAST WILL HAVE LESSER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES. BEST CHANCE FOR FZRA WILL BE IN SOUTH CENTRAL VT WITH ICE AMOUNTS UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted March 1, 2016 Author Share Posted March 1, 2016 The winds are really blowing hard here rather suddenly. Frequent gusts in the 40-50 mph range. This is obviously associated with the FROPA. So far no substantial precip as of 10:30pm.Light snow here. I totally didn't expect it. I guess I'm just too caught up in the anticipation for tomorrow's big event lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Light snow here. I totally didn't expect it. I guess I'm just too caught up in the anticipation for tomorrow's big event lol. The peak gusts have settled a little now but yeah we will see what we can pull from that one. We are riding the line for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Snowing sideways out. Moderate intensity would be my estimation. Big wet flakes. Winds are absolutely roaring. I would agree with Eyewall on the 40-50mph gusts. We don't get wind like this often down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Snow squalls moving through after tying a record high temperature for the day... record of 50F tied with 1896 in Burlington. ... Record high temperature for February 29th tied at Burlington Vermont... The temperature at the Burlington International Airport in Burlington Vermont early this morning has reached 50 degrees. This ties the record high temperature for February 29th of 50 degrees set in 1896. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted March 1, 2016 Author Share Posted March 1, 2016 Ground whitened, wind howlin. The dismal winter of 2015-16 rolls on unabated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 We must havE angered the gods for they hath whitened the ground with cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 We never saw a squall here. Either way it looks like a slight roll back for tonight on snow amounts. Hopefully we still do alright. Oh so close to a bigger event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Event totals: 0.2” Snow/0.23” L.E. The most notable thing about the frontal passage last night was the wind, but we did pick up some snow accumulation as well. Temperatures were marginal, so the snow was fairly slushy and dense on the board when I cored it last night. I was quite surprised to find 0.23” of refrozen liquid in the rain gauge this morning, so it seemed to catch a good amount of material that fell despite the winds. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.2 inches New Liquid: 0.03 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 6.7 Snow Density: 15.0% H2O Temperature: 12.2 F Sky: Clear Snow at the stake: 1.0 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 I’ve added the latest advisory and accumulations maps from the BTV NWS below for the upcoming storm. The Winter Storm Watches in Northern New York were converted to Winter Storm Warnings along the northern tier, and Winter Weather Advisories everywhere else. Some places staying all snow are still forecast for 5-10”+, but those areas are farther northwest now based on the expected track of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Snowing sideways out. Moderate intensity would be my estimation. Big wet flakes. Winds are absolutely roaring. I would agree with Eyewall on the 40-50mph gusts. We don't get wind like this often down here. IMG_1282.GIF And yet 0" on the snow report. The winter of 2015-2016 everybody! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 .3 overnight. May go shovel the roof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 .3 overnight. May go shovel the roof. lol. Absolutely horrendous up there. Sad indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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