NNE Winter. Will it ever snow again?

[dendrite]

Up to 41F and soaring away.

[powderfreak]

Westfield, VT CoCoRAHS at about 1,000ft elevation to the east of Jay Peak picked up 0.54" liquid and 5.0" snow overnight.  That's probably one of the bigger snow events of the season, haha.

 

Had 3.0" even at 3,000ft and its dense so I'm betting we got a shot of 0.25-0.3" liquid.

[J.Spin]

Is over toward the Rez side looking filled-in enough?

 

We didn’t head off the back side at all during our tour, but I bet it’s fine in the 2,500’ to 3,000’ elevation range (which is where a lot of the best skiing is anyway around there).  That’s leeward side, so the base should be deeper than where we were on the windward side.  I still think the quality of the turns would drop once one gets below ~2,500’ though – the powder just gets a bit too shallow to keep you off the old base.

[borderwx]

3" here at the house.

just under boot deep at 3100' up near Jay, so 6-8" is legit.  Really fun skiing, no sign of crust, quiet turns with no wind, so nice to have  the BC open.  Kept waiting to hit the reef underneath, but the things seem sealed up nicely.  Hopefully March  can keep it going.

[wxeyeNH]

On a positive note  epic ice skating conditions at least here in Central NH (as long as you test the ice).  The big lakes of NH are snow free.  I don't ever remember this happening in February.  Miles and miles of smooth ice.  This weekend is the ice fishing derby and there are hundreds of people out on Newfound Lake so the ice must be thick enough, although I certainly would be scared to walk the one mile across the lake, Here is a picture of the beautiful clear ice.  It's  from yesterday morning.  Just fyi, I did not take the picture someone elses drone.

[Lava Rock]

On a positive note epic ice skating conditions at least here in Central NH (as long as you test the ice). The big lakes of NH are snow free. I don't ever remember this happening in February. Miles and miles of smooth ice. This weekend is the ice fishing derby and there are hundreds of people out on Newfound Lake so the ice must be thick enough, although I certainly would be scared to walk the one mile across the lake, Here is a picture of the beautiful clear ice. It's from yesterday morning. Just fyi, I did not take the picture someone elses drone.

They should get the ice boats out there

[wxeyeNH]

4pm      Pittsburg NH  24F   Whitefield 49F.  Pretty good front right across extreme  NNE

[eduggs]

Another 60 degree day down by the Hudson.  50s well up into the higher elevations.  Lakes that have inlets and outlets are starting to show some open water.  I didn't think that would happen so soon after it was -20 a few weeks ago.

[Lava Rock]

Was out digging rocks out of lawn that had popped up. Zero frost in the ground. I'm just dumb founded how bad this year was.

[powderfreak]

Fun day on the mountain thanks to 3" new snow last night.  This is a major snowstorm this season, lol.

 

[wxeyeNH]

18Z GFS  is a bit more east than 12Z.  If the trend continues could it make it a bit more interesting?  Perhaps for you VT guys and maybe keeping the CAD in NH a bit longer?

[Hitman]

Good skiing this weekend.

Not eyewall quality, but not bad for me.

[powderfreak]

Sweet shot Hitman...moon is pretty cool in that one.

[dendrite]

1816 year without a summer

2016 year without a winter?

[MBRI]

1816 year without a summer

2016 year without a winter?

Any early calls for 2216?

[dendrite]

Any early calls for 2216?

A year without snow

[mreaves]

Chilly morning........................................................... for ****ing June!

[grambo]

Any early calls for 2216?

 

Hottest year that we measure from our orbiting ark.

[J.Spin]

Fun day on the mountain thanks to 3" new snow last night.  This is a major snowstorm this season, lol.

 

Yeah, there was some great skiing up high – we found up to a foot of powder in the usual spots below the Kitchen Wall thanks to these past couple of events.  I’d say in the afternoon the very best skiing was from 3,000’ on up, with 2,500’-3,000’ delivering in some spots as well.  I’ve added an image below and we’ve got some additional ones in our report.

 

[J.Spin]

3" here at the house.

just under boot deep at 3100' up near Jay, so 6-8" is legit.  Really fun skiing, no sign of crust, quiet turns with no wind, so nice to have the BC open.  Kept waiting to hit the reef underneath, but the things seem sealed up nicely.  Hopefully March can keep it going.

 

The other coach I was working with yesterday at Stowe was asking when we were going to start taking the students to some of the other off piste/sidecountry spots that we haven’t hit yet this season, and I told him I was waiting for the Mt. Mansfield Stake to hit the 40” mark to give us that extra margin of coverage I’d like to see in some spots.  The stake is currently at 34”, and it’s possible this is the week the depth finally gets there.  It looks like there are 2 to 3 potential systems in the pipeline this week, and the forecast for the higher elevations of Mansfield over the next few days shows 5-10”+ of accumulation.  If that Tuesday/Wednesday system breaks a bit more favorable with respect to snow that could really help, but even as the forecast stands it looks like a net gain.

[adk]

Coming home from Iceland to this is just the worst. 

[backedgeapproaching]

No one excited about the 6-8" the 00Z Euro spits out for NVT for the Tues night-Wed deal?

[eyewall]

No one excited about the 6-8" the 00Z Euro spits out for NVT for the Tues night-Wed deal?

 

Probably 2-4" here as we will taint.

[J.Spin]

No one excited about the 6-8" the 00Z Euro spits out for NVT for the Tues night-Wed deal?

 

I think it’s pretty cool, and even as things stand right now it’s probably a net gain for the snowpack in the mountains, but the general tenor in the thread right now is to complain about or dismiss storms that aren’t warning-level, 100% snow events.

 

There is a thread for the event though, which fortunately has a bit of discussion:

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47968-winter-wx-threat-march-1-2-best-chance-north/

 

I’d say watch what the meteorologists at the BTV NWS have to say in their forecast discussions going forward.  They’re quite level-headed of course, and right now it sounds like they’re thinking a Winter Weather Advisory type of situation for NVT based on the most recent forecast discussion:

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT

937 AM EST MON FEB 29 2016

 

A WINTER STORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATER TODAY IF LATER MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW IT REMAINING COLD ENOUGH TO BE ALL SNOW THERE. FURTHER EAST...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD TO VERMONT...AS THESE AREAS WILL SEE A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND PLAIN RAIN ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOWING COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AND VERMONT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SO EXPECTING ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES INTO WESTERN MAINE.

 

We’ll see what the models suggest for the next couple of cycles – if the event trends snowier like what the ECMWF is showing, we’ll see what the BTV NWS thinks about the situation in their afternoon update.

 

Like I said above though, I think’s it’s already a net gain in the higher elevations around here; the current Mansfield point forecast for Tuesday Night-Wednesday is below, which is already on top of potential accumulations from the current event:

 

Tuesday Night

A chance of snow before 4am, then snow and sleet likely between 4am and 5am, then sleet likely after 5am. Cloudy, with a low around 13. Wind chill values as low as -8. Very windy, with a south wind 31 to 36 mph increasing to 43 to 48 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

 

Wednesday

Freezing rain and sleet before 8am, then snow and sleet between 8am and 9am, then snow after 9am. High near 31. Very windy, with a south wind 43 to 48 mph becoming west 31 to 36 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

 

Wednesday Night

Snow likely before 7pm, then a chance of snow showers between 7pm and 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 0. Very windy, with a northwest wind 36 to 41 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

[powderfreak]

Posted in the banter but probably belongs in here instead... this is one of the more impressive 1-hour changes I've seen in a little while at MVL.

 

And to make sure the leap day has a good high temp, we saw a 23F increase in temperature in 1 hour overnight between 3-4am.

 

Pretty crazy jump for the middle of the night, mixing out that inversion big time.

 

That's a 1F rise every 2.6 minutes for an hour straight.  This is why I went to sleep and everything was frozen solid outside, and then woke up to let the dog out at 5am to standing water everywhere.

 

[eyewall]

I think it’s pretty cool, and even as things stand right now it’s probably a net gain for the snowpack in the mountains, but the general tenor in the thread right now is to complain about or dismiss storms that aren’t warning-level, 100% snow events.

 

There is a thread for the event though, which fortunately has a bit of discussion:

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47968-winter-wx-threat-march-1-2-best-chance-north/

 

I’d say watch what the meteorologists at the BTV NWS have to say in their forecast discussions going forward.  They’re quite level-headed of course, and right now it sounds like they’re thinking a Winter Weather Advisory type of situation for NVT based on the most recent forecast discussion:

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT

937 AM EST MON FEB 29 2016

 

A WINTER STORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATER TODAY IF LATER MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW IT REMAINING COLD ENOUGH TO BE ALL SNOW THERE. FURTHER EAST...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD TO VERMONT...AS THESE AREAS WILL SEE A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND PLAIN RAIN ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOWING COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AND VERMONT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SO EXPECTING ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES INTO WESTERN MAINE.

 

We’ll see what the models suggest for the next couple of cycles – if the event trends snowier like what the ECMWF is showing, we’ll see what the BTV NWS thinks about the situation in their afternoon update.

 

Like I said above though, I think’s it’s already a net gain in the higher elevations around here; the current Mansfield point forecast for Tuesday Night-Wednesday is below, which is already on top of potential accumulations from the current event:

 

Tuesday Night

A chance of snow before 4am, then snow and sleet likely between 4am and 5am, then sleet likely after 5am. Cloudy, with a low around 13. Wind chill values as low as -8. Very windy, with a south wind 31 to 36 mph increasing to 43 to 48 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

 

Wednesday

Freezing rain and sleet before 8am, then snow and sleet between 8am and 9am, then snow after 9am. High near 31. Very windy, with a south wind 43 to 48 mph becoming west 31 to 36 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

 

Wednesday Night

Snow likely before 7pm, then a chance of snow showers between 7pm and 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 0. Very windy, with a northwest wind 36 to 41 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

 

 

I think they are dismissed because we haven't had a single warning level event this entire winter. I however will be happy if we can come out of this with 4 inches here.

[Hitman]

From Win at sugarbush.

 

In reviewing our historical records, I discovered that there have actually been three worse years.  As of the last day of February we have received only 117” of natural snow.  However, the winters of ‘73/’74, ‘79/’80 and ‘83/’84 were even sparser.   By the end of February the ‘73/’74 season had recorded only 109” of snow.  The season of ‘79/’80 was even worse with only 90” of snow.  83/84 was only slightly better with 99”.  But look at what happened afterwards in two of those three years.  In March of ‘73/’74 we received 53” of snow followed by 24” in April.  The spring of ‘83/’84 was even better with 44” in March and another 44” in April.  Unfortunately, ‘79/’80 did not fare as well.

[powderfreak]

After comparing the 12z GFS and the 12z ECM, they are both almost identical in track so it looks like the goal-posts are quite narrow now. 

 

GFS/ECM both have the low tracking through southern VT to central Maine.  GFS is 989mb over Mount Snow and ECM is 994mb over DDH at hour 48.  Both are within miles of each other so I'm willing to toss the GGEM solution which is a 990mb over BTV at the same time.

 

The GFS is slightly stronger at all levels, allowing for slightly more warming aloft ahead of the low, so while they have the same track, the strength differences allow the EURO to probably stay frozen (snow/sleet) up here, the GFS would argue for FZRN or RN for a time, going back to snow on the backside. 

 

Either way, I do like the potential for a nice flash freeze and period of moderate snowfall across most of central/northern VT.  It should at least help us end with a net gain and white ground, even if its only a 2-3" backside snowfall. 

 

Looks like anyone that stays all snow has a good shot at a 6+ snowfall, with 3-6" for areas that mix with IP/ZR, and then 1-3" for anyone that is relying solely on the backside snow for any accumulations. 

[ono]

Watching that Weds storm... heading to the Chic Chocs for 6 days. The low is so close- nail biter.

[J.Spin]

After comparing the 12z GFS and the 12z ECM, they are both almost identical in track so it looks like the goal-posts are quite narrow now.

 

GFS/ECM both have the low tracking through southern VT to central Maine.  GFS is 989mb over Mount Snow and ECM is 994mb over DDH at hour 48.  Both are within miles of each other so I'm willing to toss the GGEM solution which is a 990mb over BTV at the same time.

 

The GFS is slightly stronger at all levels, allowing for slightly more warming aloft ahead of the low, so while they have the same track, the strength differences allow the EURO to probably stay frozen (snow/sleet) up here, the GFS would argue for FZRN or RN for a time, going back to snow on the backside.

 

Either way, I do like the potential for a nice flash freeze and period of moderate snowfall across most of central/northern VT.  It should at least help us end with a net gain and white ground, even if its only a 2-3" backside snowfall.

 

Looks like anyone that stays all snow has a good shot at a 6+ snowfall, with 3-6" for areas that mix with IP/ZR, and then 1-3" for anyone that is relying solely on the backside snow for any accumulations.

 

Thanks for the nice summary PF – it should be fun to see what the BTV NWS forecast discussion has this afternoon after the meteorologists digest the latest model data.