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NNE Winter. Will it ever snow again?


mreaves

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Went for a run here in St. J. Beautiful night to do 8 miles. 32 and rain. In town was one long puddle with every driveway intersection with the road being a puddle. Out of town on dirt roads was a joy- nothing like running downhill on top of packed snow/ ice with a stream running over it. I am just surprised I didn't bust and go airborne at anypoint.

Sounds like a good treadmill night to me.
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Event totals: 1.1” Snow/0.96” L.E.

 

The mixed precipitation eventually changed over to just rain today, but we did pick up another couple of tenths of an inch of dense frozen precipitation.  As expected, the distribution of the water in this event thus far is more biased toward liquid than the one last week at our location, with 0.14” falling as frozen and 0.82” falling as liquid.

 

Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.2 inches

New Liquid: 0.04 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 5.0

Snow Density: 20.0% H2O

Temperature: 34.7 F

Sky: Light Rain

Snow at the stake: 2.5 inches

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You could say it hasn't been a great year for NNE ;).

 

Here are some of Stowe's snowfall totals since 1997.  Since then its an average of 310", and yes if you ever see seasonal snowfall totals or averages from a New England ski resort its usually from the upper elevations unless otherwise stated.

 

Compare those totals to sitting at 105" (with this morning's 3" above 3,000ft) on February 24th, we have a long way to go.

 

attachicon.gifSnowfall_totals.jpg

 

 

The fact that places in the Mid-Atlantic and Burlington, NJ have higher season totals than Burlington, VT should tell you that yes it has been abysmal. As for the Stowe explanation refer to PF's post.

 

 

For the most part it has been...the morning snow totals have always come from the upper Gondola elevations as that's where the groomers are at that point in the morning routine.

As much as the different measuring techniques and location varies between the resort and Co-Op, the overall "theme" of the winter remains the same.

For example, in the last 5 seasons the Co-Op has come in under 200" (with this year I think it'll be the first ever 6-year stretch that failed to hit 200" there)...which are all below normal. If you look at the resort numbers, you also see a drop in snowfall over the past 5-6 years compared with the decade prior.

The numbers may differ but the overal tenor stays pretty similar relative to normal (but of course there are slight differences here and there).

 

Thanks for the replies/intel.  Tough year for you guys, but at least getting not so much snow in a season is an anomaly for you guys, as opposed to climo, for us, lol.  

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Event totals: 1.1” Snow/2.04” L.E.

 

There’s little doubt this system will see more of the precipitation falling as liquid vs. frozen, with another good shot of rain overnight bringing this event past 2” total.  It’s remained fairly cool though, so the snowpack only went down a half inch.  It looks like the back end frozen of this sandwich storm comes in tonight though; our valley forecast is calling for something in the 1-3” range with more in the higher elevations:

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT

402 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016

 

PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS TO A RAIN AND SNOW MIX THIS EVENING, AND EVENTUALLY ALL SNOW TONIGHT BEFORE ENDING EARLY FRIDAY. MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES IS EXPECTED AT THE VALLEY FLOOR, WITH UP TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS OF NORTHERN VERMONT.

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Just getting light rain here on the western edge of this train at the mountain (though town is pouring)... but man poor (our pour) MRG area has just been getting trained over by this torrential rain line for the last 60-90 minutes.

 

Saw some lightning strikes with this in Addison County, probably what Apache saw.

 

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Really interesting temperature fluctuations on the drive in to work this morning.  Full snow cover and 37° at home when I got up at 6:00, by the time I left at 7:15, the snow was melting rapidly and the car thermo read 46°, the wind was really starting to crank.  Drove down in to South Barre and the temp was 33° with ice and snow still on the trees, the car thermo even hit 32° briefly on the way up to Exit 6 on I-89.  Just before the on-ramp, the car thermo jumped rapidly from 36° to 45° and eventually made it to 47° on the interstate.  It was a bit surreal, there was snow cover and then you went around a corner an it was completely bare.  By the time I got down here to Montpelier, it was back down to 35°.

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Really interesting temperature fluctuations on the drive in to work this morning.  Full snow cover and 37° at home when I got up at 6:00, by the time I left at 7:15, the snow was melting rapidly and the car thermo read 46°, the wind was really starting to crank.  Drove down in to South Barre and the temp was 33° with ice and snow still on the trees, the car thermo even hit 32° briefly on the way up to Exit 6 on I-89.  Just before the on-ramp, the car thermo jumped rapidly from 36° to 45° and eventually made it to 47° on the interstate.  It was a bit surreal, there was snow cover and then you went around a corner an it was completely bare.  By the time I got down here to Montpelier, it was back down to 35°.

 

Really saw CAD at work this morning.  It was 32.5 on our new indoor-outdoor, which reads 1-2F higher than my max-min.  Trees well iced on Mile Hill, up to 1/4" accretion, then 12 miles south the temp sign read 55.  Last evening that new instrument stayed locked at 32.0 for 4 hours, then 32.1 for the next 5 (at least.  That was the reading during the 2:45 AM TS.  Did not stay up after that.)  Also had some of the most dense ground fog I can recall, stuff that would fog the windshield in half a second.

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I haven't completely jumped either, though only because mud sucks. As an aside, we are 8,000 trail passes below last year at VAST. That's going to hurt next year's budget. I don't know what we will do if next winter bears even a slight resemblance to this one at all. If we can get enough snow to open some riding, the pent up demand may give us a shot in the arm with three day passes.

P.S. I may have melted but it doesn't mean I've jumped.

About sums up the winter up here as well as NH and your area, What a beating the industry is taking along with the business's that rely on it..........

 

post-1154-0-41993800-1456407885_thumb.jp

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Really saw CAD at work this morning.  It was 32.5 on our new indoor-outdoor, which reads 1-2F higher than my max-min.  Trees well iced on Mile Hill, up to 1/4" accretion, then 12 miles south the temp sign read 55.  Last evening that new instrument stayed locked at 32.0 for 4 hours, then 32.1 for the next 5 (at least.  That was the reading during the 2:45 AM TS.  Did not stay up after that.)  Also had some of the most dense ground fog I can recall, stuff that would fog the windshield in half a second.

So you never got above 32.5F last night or this morning with the frontal passage?

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So you never got above 32.5F last night or this morning with the frontal passage?

 

Cold pockets in a lot of areas, Look at IZG for example..............

ASUS41 KGYX 251410RWRGYXWEATHER ROUNDUP FOR MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME900 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016MEZ002-005-006-010-012-015-018-020-021-024-026-027-029-251500-MAINECITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKSPORTLAND       DRZL/FOG  49  49 100 S9        29.25F VSB 1/2SANFORD        CLOUDY    55  54  94 S5        29.23FBAR HARBOR     CLOUDY    55  54  94 S20G30    29.37FWISCASSET      CLOUDY    51  50  96 S8        29.29F FOGROCKLAND       CLOUDY    52  50  93 SW9       29.31FFRYEBURG       FOG       36  36 100 CALM      29.23F VSB 1/4LEWISTONAUBURN CLOUDY    54  50  87 S10       29.24F VSB 1/2AUGUSTA        LGT RAIN  54  54 100 S13G26    29.25F FOGWATERVILLE     LGT RAIN  54  54 100 S8        29.23F FOGBANGOR         CLOUDY    53  53 100 S23G35    29.30F FOGGREENVILLE       N/A     43  43 100 VRB5      29.22FMILLINOCKET    LGT RAIN  33  32  96 CALM      29.29F VSB<1/4HOULTON        PTSUNNY   53  51  93 S10G22    29.29FPRESQUE ISLE   FOG       37  36  96 W3        29.30F VSB 1/4FRENCHVILLE    FOG       35  33  92 SE12      29.27F VSB<1/4CARIBOU        FOG       36  34  92 NE3       29.29F VSB<1/4$$
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Cold pockets in a lot of areas, Look at IZG for example..............

ASUS41 KGYX 251410RWRGYXWEATHER ROUNDUP FOR MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME900 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016MEZ002-005-006-010-012-015-018-020-021-024-026-027-029-251500-MAINECITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKSPORTLAND       DRZL/FOG  49  49 100 S9        29.25F VSB 1/2SANFORD        CLOUDY    55  54  94 S5        29.23FBAR HARBOR     CLOUDY    55  54  94 S20G30    29.37FWISCASSET      CLOUDY    51  50  96 S8        29.29F FOGROCKLAND       CLOUDY    52  50  93 SW9       29.31FFRYEBURG       FOG       36  36 100 CALM      29.23F VSB 1/4LEWISTONAUBURN CLOUDY    54  50  87 S10       29.24F VSB 1/2AUGUSTA        LGT RAIN  54  54 100 S13G26    29.25F FOGWATERVILLE     LGT RAIN  54  54 100 S8        29.23F FOGBANGOR         CLOUDY    53  53 100 S23G35    29.30F FOGGREENVILLE       N/A     43  43 100 VRB5      29.22FMILLINOCKET    LGT RAIN  33  32  96 CALM      29.29F VSB<1/4HOULTON        PTSUNNY   53  51  93 S10G22    29.29FPRESQUE ISLE   FOG       37  36  96 W3        29.30F VSB 1/4FRENCHVILLE    FOG       35  33  92 SE12      29.27F VSB<1/4CARIBOU        FOG       36  34  92 NE3       29.29F VSB<1/4$$

well that should preserve some snow, if any remains in those areas. I think Allagash, Madawaska avoided a lot of rain and must be net positive after getting 5-9" last night.

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Thanks for the replies/intel.  Tough year for you guys, but at least getting not so much snow in a season is an anomaly for you guys, as opposed to climo, for us, lol.  

 

Yup, pretty "tough" not getting snow we really depend on to drive a large part of our economy.... ehl oh ehl.

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So you never got above 32.5F last night or this morning with the frontal passage?

 

Whoosh!  Right over my head.  (literally)  Just checked wunderground, still only 35 from their New Sharon/Mercer link.

 

Cocorahs comment from Madawaska observer cited 7.5" snow pounded to 5.5" by 0.5" sleet and 0.3" ice accretion.  Nasty, but beats what happened farther south.  Looks like the Can Am 250 should be okay (unless another cutter or two blow thru between now and March 4-7.)

 

Edit:  FVE up to 42 at noon.  Torch there should be brief, so a net gain in snowpack.  Statement from CAR also noted FVE with 0.6" ice.  Hope there's less where the doggies have to run.  Saw 8" with 1/2" sleet from St. Pamphile (assume American side of the border), and that's more in the race trail area.

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32F and snowing again at the picnic tables.

 

Nice, let’s watch those snow levels drop.  Our valley forecast still sums to the 1-3” range for snow, but it sounds like the anticipated accumulations have been tapered down a couple inches from the initial thoughts based on the BTV NWS forecast discussion:

 

IN GENERAL, MOST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW BY 00Z, NORTHERN VERMONT IN THE 01-03Z RANGE AND CENTRAL VERMONT 02-04Z TIME. AS THE COLDER AIR COMES IN, THE MOISTURE DEPTH IS DECREASING, SO NOT LOOKING FOR A LOT OF ACCUMULATION TO OCCUR. PERHAPS A DUSTING TO 0.3" IN THE VALLEYS TO 1-3" AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

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