NNE Winter. Will it ever snow again?

[ono]

What gives? Everybody's abandoned ship?

 

Nope. Still think it's going to snow. Many folks have thrown in the towel it seems. Kinda kills the conversation. So just holding tight, waiting for the vibe to improve.  

[mreaves]

I haven't completely jumped either, though only because mud sucks. As an aside, we are 8,000 trail passes below last year at VAST. That's going to hurt next year's budget. I don't know what we will do if next winter bears even a slight resemblance to this one at all. If we can get enough snow to open some riding, the pent up demand may give us a shot in the arm with three day passes.

P.S. I may have melted but it doesn't mean I've jumped.

[Hitman]

Hahah I think it is looking that way.

Well, I say, we hunker down, muddle through to Friday, assess the damage, then try to move forward and hope by some miracle, we can salvage something out of this mess.

[J.Spin]

I’ve added the latest advisories and projected accumulations maps from the BTV NWS below.  In general accumulations of snow are expected to be just an inch or two, so the Winter Weather Advisory in the area is focused on the potential ice.

 

 

 

WWUS41 KBTV 232052

WSWBTV

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT

352 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016

 

NYZ029>031-034-VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012-017>019-241000-

/O.NEW.KBTV.WW.Y.0006.160224T0300Z-160224T2200Z/

SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-

WESTERN ESSEX-ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-ORANGE-

WINDSOR-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN RUTLAND-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...STAR LAKE...SARANAC LAKE...

TUPPER LAKE...DANNEMORA...LAKE PLACID...NEWPORT...ISLAND POND...

JOHNSON...STOWE...ST. JOHNSBURY...MONTPELIER...BRADFORD...

RANDOLPH...SPRINGFIELD...WHITE RIVER JUNCTION...UNDERHILL...

BRISTOL...RIPTON...EAST WALLINGFORD...KILLINGTON

352 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016

 

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO

5 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MAINLY FREEZING RAIN WITH SOME SNOW AND

SLEET MIXING IN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5

PM EST WEDNESDAY.

 

* LOCATIONS...ALL OF VERMONT EAST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND FOR

  THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

 

* HAZARD TYPES...FREEZING RAIN... SLEET AND SNOW.

 

* ACCUMULATIONS...ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.01" TO AS MUCH AS 0.10"

  IN ELEVATIONS LESS THAN 1000 FEET. ABOVE 1000 FEET ICE

  ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 0.25" WILL BE POSSIBLE. SNOW ACCUMULATION

  OF UP TO 1 INCH OF HEAVY WET SNOW.

 

* MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATE...UP TO ONE QUARTER INCH PER HOUR...MAINLY

  TUESDAY LATE EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

 

* TIMING...LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN LATE TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN

  TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE PERIOD OF

  LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE

  ENDING EARLY EVENING.

 

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO

  THE POTENTIAL FOR SLICK ROADS AS SNOW AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN

  OCCUR. ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ICE

  ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS POWERLINES AND TREE BRANCHES.

 

* WINDS...EAST 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.

 

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S.

 

* VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN 1 MILE AT TIMES... MAINLY THROUGH THIS

  EVENING AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING IN PERIODS OF SNOW.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING

RAIN... SNOW... OR SLEET... WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE

PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE

CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

 

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL MEDIA...OR

GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS

WEATHER SITUATION.

 

&&

[backedgeapproaching]

What gives? Everybody's abandoned ship?

I kind of mentally checked out a bit, doesn't mean I won't get excited if something gets inside 48 hours that might look promising.

Just need a to get a decent event and maybe get on a late season hot streak.

[powderfreak]

When I left my house I only had about 0.25" and found 1.5" in the parking lot at the ski resort when I arrived about 8 minutes later.  Very light snow falling in town but turned to SN/SN+ up here at 1,500ft. 

 

We'll see how much we can grab before it mixes.  Looks like at least one more burst so 2" should be in reach.

 

It is cold though.  Colder than forecast.

 

MMNV1 is still 19F at 4,000ft and its 25F here at 1,500ft.  That sounds like a good sleet column to me with probably 3,000ft of sub-freezing air at least.

[powderfreak]

Well, I say, we hunker down, muddle through to Friday, assess the damage, then try to move forward and hope by some miracle, we can salvage something out of this mess.

 

You need to see what weather models John is looking at this morning .

 

May see all snow, especially in the higher elevations?  I'm thinking there's a 100% chance that its rain and freezing rain this afternoon.

 

Its like its getting to the point that if you ignore it completely, maybe it won't happen, haha.  I'm thinking of burying my head in the sand from like 12pm today until 12am Friday.

 

 

6:30 AM

Sugarbush is under a Winter Weather Advisory until 2PM, with snow and other types of frozen precipitation likely and temps in the 20s and low 30s. We may see all snow, especially at higher elevations.  

We have a fresh dusting this morning, which has helped velvet-ize the corduroy on 44 groomed runs. Head to Ripcord, Snowball and Elbow for some of the best carving conditions.

[eyewall]

Just under an inch here it looks like eyeballing it. It is nice to see the ground covered even if only for a few hours before we go back to stick season. Yes, it is down to that this year LOL.

[mreaves]

1.75" at home, looks like a little less here in Montpelier.  It was still snowing when I left but had transitioned to very light sleet but the time I got to work.  They didn't touch the roads in anticipation of the mess coming and the melt afterward.  In this crappy winter 1.75" looks nice. I keep thinking that when we get a normal 4"-8" or 6"-10" snowfall it's going to feel like Boston last February 

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 0.9” Snow/0.10” L.E.

 

The snow was transitioning over to mixed precipitation as I was leaving the house this morning a bit before 8:00 AM, but road conditions weren’t too bad in the Waterbury area at that point – generally a bit slushy from the morning’s snow, but treated.

 

Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.3 inches

New Liquid: 0.01 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 30.0

Snow Density: 3.3% H2O

Temperature: 31.8 F

Sky: Light Snow (2-4 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 2.5 inches

 

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.6 inches

New Liquid: 0.09 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 15.0

Snow Density: 6.7% H2O

Temperature: 30.7 F

Sky: Light Snow (5 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 2.5 inches

[Hitman]

You need to see what weather models John is looking at this morning .

May see all snow, especially in the higher elevations? I'm thinking there's a 100% chance that its rain and freezing rain this afternoon.

Its like its getting to the point that if you ignore it completely, maybe it won't happen, haha. I'm thinking of burying my head in the sand from like 12pm today until 12am Friday.

Must be some kind of proprietary model he's running in his basement.

I'm just hoping it's not 1.5" of ncp and we see some love on the backside.

[klw]

1.3 at the house as of 7:30 ish, puts me over 30 inches on the year

[eyewall]

Raining now here in the CPV. Time to draw the shades until tomorrow night.

[backedgeapproaching]

.2"

Soooo,yeah. Underwhelmed, again.

I havent been able to even get to the NWS forecast of 1-2" the past few events-ha.

It's been absolutely pulling teeth to get any type of synoptic snow--clipper, SWFE, coastal.

Without oragraphic help or lake ontario in play I would be probably around 5-6" for the season. I know that plays a part in the seasonal snow total every year, but still.

I can't imagine Bennington has more than 10-12" this year. I think RUT has about 15-17" going by CoCoRaHS.

[backedgeapproaching]

33F currently with some -RA

[powderfreak]

Pouring sleet currently at the mountain.  Mixed with freezing drizzle.  Sometimes when it comes down hard its like rock candy here in the base area, as it looks like aggregates of sleet pellets fused together with the freezing rain.  Very interesting.

 

Good thick cold layer sitting on the east slope for the time being.

 

3,600ft...23F

2,600ft...25F

1,500ft...28F

 

2.75" SN/IP combo at 3,000ft.  Very dense stuff which will hopefully help insulate from the coming rain and warmth.

 

Just looking at the resorts around here, we are in the same boat with Bolton and Smuggs with 2-3" range prior to the real changeover.  Its still sleeting pretty hard so will probably be enough to get 3,000ft to a full 3-spot.  As much frozen QPF as possible on the ground would be appreciated.

[RU848789]

Visitor from NJ here.  Just curious on how bad it's really been. I went to the Stowe page and they're listing 96" of snow, so far this season vs. an average of 314".  That average sounds really high to me, so I assume that's the summit or at least the top of the ski area (see the link - do those numbers sound right?).  And if they only have 96" (~30% of seasonal) well more than halfway through a VT winter, sounds like it's not been a great year for them.  Too bad for all of you guys, as I love heading up there in the winter.  As I'm sure most of you know, it's been really warm in the NYC/NJ area, too, (top 2-3 warmest winter ever), but somehow I have 31" of snow this winter vs. a seasonal average of 28" (22" from the blizzard).  Good luck the rest of the way...

 

http://www.onthesnow.com/vermont/stowe-mountain-resort/historical-snowfall.html?&y=0&q=snow

[grambo]

Raining now here in the CPV. Time to draw the shades until tomorrow night.

 

Do you think we will see much in the way of accumulations on the backside of this heading into Friday?

[eyewall]

Do you think we will see much in the way of accumulations on the backside of this heading into Friday?

 

I wouldn't go more than a dusting here in the valley. The higher terrain as always could pick up a few inches.

[powderfreak]

Visitor from NJ here.  Just curious on how bad it's really been. I went to the Stowe page and they're listing 96" of snow, so far this season vs. an average of 314".  That average sounds really high to me, so I assume that's the summit or at least the top of the ski area (see the link - do those numbers sound right?).  And if they only have 96" (~30% of seasonal) well more than halfway through a VT winter, sounds like it's not been a great year for them.  Too bad for all of you guys, as I love heading up there in the winter.  As I'm sure most of you know, it's been really warm in the NYC/NJ area, too, (top 2-3 warmest winter ever), but somehow I have 31" of snow this winter vs. a seasonal average of 28" (22" from the blizzard).  Good luck the rest of the way...

 

http://www.onthesnow.com/vermont/stowe-mountain-resort/historical-snowfall.html?&y=0&q=snow

 

You could say it hasn't been a great year for NNE .

 

Here are some of Stowe's snowfall totals since 1997.  Since then its an average of 310", and yes if you ever see seasonal snowfall totals or averages from a New England ski resort its usually from the upper elevations unless otherwise stated.

 

Compare those totals to sitting at 105" (with this morning's 3" above 3,000ft) on February 24th, we have a long way to go.

 

[Lava Rock]

You could say it hasn't been a great year for NNE .

 

Here are some of Stowe's snowfall totals since 1997.  Since then its an average of 310", and yes if you ever see seasonal snowfall totals or averages from a New England ski resort its usually from the upper elevations unless otherwise stated.

 

Compare those totals to sitting at 105" (with this morning's 3" above 3,000ft) on February 24th, we have a long way to go.

 

Snowfall_totals.jpg

how does jay compare?

[eyewall]

Visitor from NJ here.  Just curious on how bad it's really been. I went to the Stowe page and they're listing 96" of snow, so far this season vs. an average of 314".  That average sounds really high to me, so I assume that's the summit or at least the top of the ski area (see the link - do those numbers sound right?).  And if they only have 96" (~30% of seasonal) well more than halfway through a VT winter, sounds like it's not been a great year for them.  Too bad for all of you guys, as I love heading up there in the winter.  As I'm sure most of you know, it's been really warm in the NYC/NJ area, too, (top 2-3 warmest winter ever), but somehow I have 31" of snow this winter vs. a seasonal average of 28" (22" from the blizzard).  Good luck the rest of the way...

 

http://www.onthesnow.com/vermont/stowe-mountain-resort/historical-snowfall.html?&y=0&q=snow

 

The fact that places in the Mid-Atlantic and Burlington, NJ have higher season totals than Burlington, VT should tell you that yes it has been abysmal. As for the Stowe explanation refer to PF's post.

[SJonesWX]

Visitor from NJ here.  Just curious on how bad it's really been. I went to the Stowe page and they're listing 96" of snow, so far this season vs. an average of 314".  That average sounds really high to me, so I assume that's the summit or at least the top of the ski area (see the link - do those numbers sound right?).  And if they only have 96" (~30% of seasonal) well more than halfway through a VT winter, sounds like it's not been a great year for them.  Too bad for all of you guys, as I love heading up there in the winter.  As I'm sure most of you know, it's been really warm in the NYC/NJ area, too, (top 2-3 warmest winter ever), but somehow I have 31" of snow this winter vs. a seasonal average of 28" (22" from the blizzard).  Good luck the rest of the way...

 

http://www.onthesnow.com/vermont/stowe-mountain-resort/historical-snowfall.html?&y=0&q=snow

You have had more snow than most of new england (aside from mountains).

[powderfreak]

Cars off the road up here now apparently... really icy above 1,300ft.

 

It had been slowly rising but now just dropped from 30.5F to 29.1F at 1,500ft.  Pouring sleet and freezing rain.

 

Tree branches getting droopy now with that glazed over look.

[tamarack]

Visitor from NJ here.  Just curious on how bad it's really been. I went to the Stowe page and they're listing 96" of snow, so far this season vs. an average of 314".  That average sounds really high to me, so I assume that's the summit or at least the top of the ski area (see the link - do those numbers sound right?).  And if they only have 96" (~30% of seasonal) well more than halfway through a VT winter, sounds like it's not been a great year for them.  Too bad for all of you guys, as I love heading up there in the winter.  As I'm sure most of you know, it's been really warm in the NYC/NJ area, too, (top 2-3 warmest winter ever), but somehow I have 31" of snow this winter vs. a seasonal average of 28" (22" from the blizzard).  Good luck the rest of the way...

 

http://www.onthesnow.com/vermont/stowe-mountain-resort/historical-snowfall.html?&y=0&q=snow

 

The Mansfield co-op site at 3950' elev. has an average closer to 220".  However, it's a windswept location with once-a-day observations, and PF has frequently noted its inadequacy in recording representative snowfall.  He currently observes at a more sheltered location at 3,000'.  I'm not sure if the data he showed has been at the same location back thru 1997-98.

[powderfreak]

The Mansfield co-op site at 3950' elev. has an average closer to 220". However, it's a windswept location with once-a-day observations, and PF has frequently noted its inadequacy in recording representative snowfall. He currently observes at a more sheltered location at 3,000'. I'm not sure if the data he showed has been at the same location back thru 1997-98.

For the most part it has been...the morning snow totals have always come from the upper Gondola elevations as that's where the groomers are at that point in the morning routine.

As much as the different measuring techniques and location varies between the resort and Co-Op, the overall "theme" of the winter remains the same.

For example, in the last 5 seasons the Co-Op has come in under 200" (with this year I think it'll be the first ever 6-year stretch that failed to hit 200" there)...which are all below normal. If you look at the resort numbers, you also see a drop in snowfall over the past 5-6 years compared with the decade prior.

The numbers may differ but the overal tenor stays pretty similar relative to normal (but of course there are slight differences here and there).

[powderfreak]

Just headed home and surprised it actually seems to be more sleet here than it was at the mountain. Wonder if the extra 750ft lower in elevation is allowing for better refreeze of the droplets. It's noisy out there.

[ApacheTrout]

0.57 inches of rain today, with a temp holding at 33F all day.  Deeee-lite-ful.

[mreaves]

Most of the snow we got overnight has stuck around. It's lasted much longer than last week's mess. That's a win in my book!

[klw]

Went for a run here in St. J.  Beautiful night to do 8 miles.  32 and rain.  In town was one long puddle with every driveway intersection with the road being a puddle.  Out of town on dirt roads was a joy- nothing like running downhill on top of packed snow/ ice with a stream running over it.  I am just surprised I didn't bust and go airborne at anypoint.