NNE Winter. Will it ever snow again?

[J.Spin]

I've got like a foot of water in a lowland of my yard that the dog is playing in...on top of a couple inches of snow. It's like a giant slush puppy. If it freezes before draining I might be able to ice skate across the backyard tomorrow.

 

I don’t know how the storm played out for the ski areas in general, but it was certainly a net snowpack gain in our area of the Winooski Valley.  Quantitatively the snowpack is both deeper than it was before the storm (as judged by the depth at our stake), and it’s certainly denser as well.  It’s basically a saturated pack, so it can’t really get denser than it is.

 

On my way in to Burlington this morning I was able to get a sense for the state of the snowpack westward from our area.  Just down below our area at the east end of Bolton Flats the snowpack looks about the same as it did before, with perhaps an inch or two, but that quickly disappears over the course of a couple of miles, and by the time one gets to Bolton itself the snow is basically gone.  From there through to Burlington there are some patches in protected areas, but the ground in the valley is generally bare.

 

It looks like the next opportunity for snow in the area is tonight:

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT

705 AM EST WED FEB 17 2016

 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

 

...ESE MOVEMENT OF 500MB TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN NY AFTER 18Z...AND INTO VERMONT AFTER 21Z. THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BEFORE DISSIPATING WITH DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM NW-SE LATE THIS EVENING THRU ABOUT 06Z ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. SNOWFALL AMTS GENERALLY A DUSTING TO 1" FOR THE NRN VALLEYS...AND 1-2" FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH SOME OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENTS.

[mreaves]

My area vaporized.  Patchy snow at best.  Here in downtown Montpelier, they seemed to have fared better in terms of retention.  Alas, I have resigned myself to crapiness for the next two months, although I reserve the right to get excited for a decent event should it happen. To pass the time I am going to be looking at buying new golf clubs.  My current set of Mizunos are 7 years old and there is nothing I love more than throwing money at a hobby that is supremely frustrating. 

[eyewall]

I don’t know how the storm played out for the ski areas in general, but it was certainly a net snowpack gain in our area of the Winooski Valley.  Quantitatively the snowpack is both deeper than it was before the storm (as judged by the depth at our stake), and it’s certainly denser as well.  It’s basically a saturated pack, so it can’t really get denser than it is.

 

On my way in to Burlington this morning I was able to get a sense for the state of the snowpack westward from our area.  Just down below our area at the east end of Bolton Flats the snowpack looks about the same as it did before, with perhaps an inch or two, but that quickly disappears over the course of a couple of miles, and by the time one gets to Bolton itself the snow is basically gone.  From there through to Burlington there are some patches in protected areas, but the ground in the valley is generally bare.

 

It looks like the next opportunity for snow in the area is tonight:

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT

705 AM EST WED FEB 17 2016

 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

 

...ESE MOVEMENT OF 500MB TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN NY AFTER 18Z...AND INTO VERMONT AFTER 21Z. THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BEFORE DISSIPATING WITH DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM NW-SE LATE THIS EVENING THRU ABOUT 06Z ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. SNOWFALL AMTS GENERALLY A DUSTING TO 1" FOR THE NRN VALLEYS...AND 1-2" FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH SOME OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENTS.

 

 

 

There was no chance we would keep any snow here with the rain and temps torching to 55-60F at their peak. Hopefully tonight overperforms a little.

[tamarack]

Same 12" at the stake this morning as I had two days ago, but it's not the same pack, after 0.47" LE in frozen plus 0.66" RA.  At least half of that precip remains in the current stuff.   Looking at brown grass from my AUG window, and only patches n the woods.  Of course, the home front has maintained white cover since the late Dec storm while the AUG lawns were bare 2 weeks ago and have never had more than about 6" at any time this "winter."

[Hitman]

My area vaporized.  Patchy snow at best.  Here in downtown Montpelier, they seemed to have fared better in terms of retention.  Alas, I have resigned myself to crapiness for the next two months, although I reserve the right to get excited for a decent event should it happen. To pass the time I am going to be looking at buying new golf clubs.  My current set of Mizunos are 7 years old and there is nothing I love more than throwing money at a hobby that is supremely frustrating. 

I shaved my beard this morning since the old growth obviously wasnt helpful (who would've thunk it?).  anyway, will start anew tomorrow with hopefully better results.

[eyewall]

A few weenie flakes flying here.

[dryslot]

Mother nature brutally attacked us yesterday

[dendrite]

I think we only lost a couple inches here. We torched for probably about 6hrs (45F+).

 

Woke up to about 23F at 530am...still dropping to the current 19.6F now with a brisk wind. I still like Monday despite the GFS shredding the system. The Euro had a few inches in S NH. There's a long way to go with the storm late next week too. Hopefully no one melts down over a d7 system.

[eyewall]

I think we only lost a couple inches here. We torched for probably about 6hrs (45F+).

 

Woke up to about 23F at 530am...still dropping to the current 19.6F now with a brisk wind. I still like Monday despite the GFS shredding the system. The Euro had a few inches in S NH. There's a long way to go with the storm late next week too. Hopefully no one melts down over a d7 system.

 

Next week's system will slip away somehow (most likely a cutter). I am betting the streak. Anyway this morning it is 12F with full stick season in place (frozen bare ground).

[CoastalWx]

Next week's system will slip away somehow (most likely a cutter). I am betting the streak. Anyway this morning it is 12F with full stick season in place (frozen bare ground).

 

Always good to go with emotions.

[Lava Rock]

Next week's system will slip away somehow (most likely a cutter). I am betting the streak. Anyway this morning it is 12F with full stick season in place (frozen bare ground).

A coating-1" on saturday followed by 40's on Sunday. Weds next week looks like snow to rain setup. Lock it in. The winter that keeps disappointing.

[eyewall]

A coating-1" on saturday followed by 40's on Sunday. Weds next week looks like snow to rain setup. Lock it in. The winter that keeps disappointing.

 

It is consistent at least LOL.

 

 

Emotions aside, the reality is the models have no appreciable handle on next week's system yet. At least 10 Euro ensemble members cut or run up the Hudson Valley while others take it closer to the 40/70 benchmark. Obviously the GFS isn't doing all that great either with a good degree of variability from inside track to a weaker storm farther off shore this morning. The potential system is only starting to get out of pure fantasy range.

[backedgeapproaching]

 

 

I think we only lost a couple inches here. We torched for probably about 6hrs (45F+).

 

Woke up to about 23F at 530am...still dropping to the current 19.6F now with a brisk wind. I still like Monday despite the GFS shredding the system. The Euro had a few inches in S NH. There's a long way to go with the storm late next week too. Hopefully no one melts down over a d7 system.

 

.

Well, that lasted approximately 32 mins.   

[powderfreak]

Well, that lasted approximately 32 mins.

[dryslot]

Its probably time for some to take a break from the board for health reasons

[powderfreak]

Some good signs on the 12z models for a 1-4" snowfall across NNE on Friday night.

 

Its in the second half of the RGEM range, but that was a good run dropping 0.2-0.4" of QPF across a lot of VT and NH.

 

This RGEM map would be a top 5 snowfall this winter, so hopefully it pans out haha.

 

 

GFS was a little less but still gave a nice burst of a couple tenths of QPF on Friday night.

 

[Hitman]

btv has me for 1-2" friday night.  concerned about the winds on saturday.

[powderfreak]

btv has me for 1-2" friday night. concerned about the winds on saturday.

Yeah they may be an issue, especially for the usual suspects.

[klw]

18Z 4k NAM

[wxeyeNH]

So little snow this winter that I got the lawnmowers out early.  Currently have one working the front and 8 out back.

 

Actually driving around the Bristol/Plymouth NH area most everything is snow covered except the higher elevations.  Why I torched for many hours killing my snow cover the valleys remained cold and kept most of theirs.  Deer are all over my pastures eating.  Glad they are getting some calories before we cover things up again perhaps as early as tomorrow night.  Yesterday took the drone and flew it down to get a good look at them.  They are very curious about it and not really very scared.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i3AdGW8ARVc

[powderfreak]

Looks surprisingly white for record low snow, haha.  Currently the Co-Op has had 7" of snowfall this month, out of a normal 3 feet to-date.

 

Looking at the photos you'd never know we were running at like 19% normal snowfall so far in February.  Last night's 1" of snowfall was nice, so we almost made it to the 1.5-2" daily average.  Thank God for snowmaking.

 

[powderfreak]

Great news today actually... with 23" at the Stake, this is no longer the lowest snow for the date in the 60-year data set. 

 

1961 had 22" today, so we can sleep soundly tonight knowing that there was one year in the past half century with less snowpack than today.

 

Speaking of 1961, that must've been a brutal February as the snowpack fell all month, ending at 12" by March 1st.  Then they made a decent recovery in March, going from 12" depth to 48" depth by mid-March.  Topped out at 60" in April after that fall to 12" during the second half of February.  Looks like that would've been an interesting year...starts out snowy, then almost completely melts out in February, then goes gangbusters in March/April to get back up to 60" on the ground.  That probably felt like two different winters with an epic melt month inbetween.

[bobbutts]

So little snow this winter that I got the lawnmowers out early.  Currently have one working the front and 8 out back.

 

Actually driving around the Bristol/Plymouth NH area most everything is snow covered except the higher elevations.  Why I torched for many hours killing my snow cover the valleys remained cold and kept most of theirs.  Deer are all over my pastures eating.  Glad they are getting some calories before we cover things up again perhaps as early as tomorrow night.  Yesterday took the drone and flew it down to get a good look at them.  They are very curious about it and not really very scared.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i3AdGW8ARVc

awesome vid.  looks like you're getting comfortable flying it FPV. I saw some study that showed bears around a "drone" and it hugely spiked their vitals, freaked them out.   It may be that your q500 is quiet enough and small enough not to cause that or maybe deer are different.

I jumped on the q500 4k wagon after seeing your and other people's vids and reviews and struggling with a cheapo gimbal.  I was able to sell enough gear to mostly pay for it, and I think it will be a great trade up.. 

[ORH_wxman]

1960-1961 was an epic winter for the mid Atlantic. It was also epic as close as interior SNE up into interior S NH (that was ORH's snowiest winter on record until 1992-1993)

Total disaster though at the picnic tables. Different from this year where all of New England save the south coast and Cape are having it rough.

[wxeyeNH]

awesome vid.  looks like you're getting comfortable flying it FPV. I saw some study that showed bears around a "drone" and it hugely spiked their vitals, freaked them out.   It may be that your q500 is quiet enough and small enough not to cause that or maybe deer are different.

I jumped on the q500 4k wagon after seeing your and other people's vids and reviews and struggling with a cheapo gimbal.  I was able to sell enough gear to mostly pay for it, and I think it will be a great trade up.. 

Thanks.  The drone was the best electronic purchase I have ever made.  Because I am already at a high elevation I can fly the drone 400 feet above my head but really be over 1400 feet above the countryside.  I really enjoy flying it over low clouds.  Eyewalls Phantom has better range but 1/2 mile is fine for me.  In another year drones will even be better!  Here's a picture of low clouds over Newfound Lake.  Every flight is different as far as weather is concerned.  Would love to get a summer picture with a nice thunderstorm and shelf cloud in the distance.

[powderfreak]

1960-1961 was an epic winter for the mid Atlantic. It was also epic as close as interior SNE up into interior S NH (that was ORH's snowiest winter on record until 1992-1993)

Total disaster though at the picnic tables. Different from this year where all of New England save the south coast and Cape are having it rough.

 

I wonder what happened in January and February that season...just massive losses on the whole and sustained for two months with no gains at all.  Looking at the daily numbers, there were some very nice snowy periods, too.  Storms of 15", 20", 16", 18" and some more around a foot...knowing how that summit measures snow, that could be much more significant with twice a day measuring and much less wind-effect on the snowboard. 

 

Anyway, the Coop data says that winter of '60-61 had 193.8" of snow.  The last time the Coop saw that was in the 2009-2010 season.  There must've been some impressive melt periods, as the snowfall (shown by the multiple spikes from a 12-inch gain in October, and then December, March & April were the snowier months, with January & February being a atrocious.  Coop average is 220" (I think), so still below average obviously....but that's looking like a real snowy year right now, haha.

 

[bobbutts]

[Lava Rock]

Brutal

[dryslot]

 

Most people don't care unfortunately, Its taking its toll thru out NNE

[mreaves]

Most people don't care unfortunately, Its taking its toll thru out NNE

Here in VT, snowmobiling is managed by a number of local clubs and the association they belong to, VAST - Vermont Association of Snow Travelers a nonprofit. The money from trail passes is pooled and VAST contracts with each club to maintain trails. The contracts guarantee a minimum of 50% of their grooming payments regardless of the actual amount of grooming that gets done so there is some planning and protection for years like this. Even though VAST and the local clubs are not generating much money, they aren't spending much either. Obviously things are tough but right now we are most concerned about the small businesses such as restaurants, hotels etc. that depend on winter recreation as a large part of their income. The state will also suffer. I mentioned earlier that tax revenues fell quite a bit short of projections for January and I don't see how February will be any different.