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NNE Winter. Will it ever snow again?


mreaves

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Kiddos are on February break this week. Poor buggers can't catch a break.   First, two-weeks at Christmas with no snow on the ground, now this.  De-frickin-lightful.

 

I drive Uber here and there for extra money and I talked to a lot of people who bailed on skiing this past weekend because of the cold. It is like mother nature found every possible way to hit the resorts. Frozen/Loose Granular coming up this week LOL.

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Picked up more than I thought overnight. 3". Decided it was best to snowblow the driveway as to avoid any refreeze/rutting situation, although 50F+ tonite and downpours should melt most of the packed snow layer currently present. FWIW, with only ~7-8" base on the ground, the woods and around the house look the best it's looked all winter. We're one decent storm away from getting sledding trails open and groomed, now this. With 40F tomorrow and Saturday looking minimal, I guess we start looking towards the end of the month/March for anything significant. This just blows. 

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Event totals: 2.9” Snow/0.57” L.E.

 

Also of note is that this storm just pushed the season’s total snowfall past the 50” mark at our site.  That’s typically the first snowfall benchmark I look for each season, although if things are on track it comes in December.

 

 

Holy crap!  I didn't realize you were that far ahead of me up here, lol.  I just hit 31.5" today.  This is probably one of the larger spreads as a percentage that the two of us have seen in a few winters.

 

Looking at the snow tally, J.Spin's superior location among us VT'ers at this latitude is quite obvious:

 

J.Spin...50.1"

Myself...31.5"

klw...26.1"

eyewall...25.7"

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Holy crap!  I didn't realize you were that far ahead of me up here, lol.  I just hit 31.5" today.  This is probably one of the larger spreads as a percentage that the two of us have seen in a few winters.

 

Looking at the snow tally, J.Spin's superior location among us VT'ers at this latitude is quite obvious:

 

J.Spin...50.1"

Myself...31.5"

klw...26.1"

eyewall...25.7"

 

This was the rare occasion where the other CoCoRaHS Waterbury observer got a little more than JSpin. Although, I'm guessing maybe the other Waterbury guy is in a little better spot for synoptic type storms with E/SE flow?

 

 

 

2/16/2016   6:00 AM   VT-WS-18   Waterbury 3.3 NE  0.50 4.5 NA VT Washington

 

 

 

2/16/2016   6:00 AM   VT-WS-19   Waterbury 3.0 NW  0.57 2.9 5.0 VT Washington
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This was the rare occasion where the other CoCoRaHS Waterbury observer got a little more than JSpin. Although, I'm guessing maybe the other Waterbury guy is in a little better spot for synoptic type storms with E/SE flow?

2/16/2016 6:00 AM VT-WS-18 Waterbury 3.3 NE 0.50 4.5 NA VT Washington

2/16/2016 6:00 AM VT-WS-19 Waterbury 3.0 NW 0.57 2.9 5.0 VT Washington

Other places routinely get more than JSpin in the different events...the thing with his location is it won't get screwed by any wind direction. Someone may be better at east flow, some better at west flow (say Underhill), but J's spot will do better at both of them in the means.

There's been some west slope events where I've gotten like 2" while J gets 7-8", and that's where most of our differences have come from, plus he had some mesoscale stuff where Waterbury did well in general.

That's the beauty of his location...he's never looking at an event and saying, "We usually don't do that well in these type set ups"....like I might say on a blocked flow NW upslope for example. Or someone on the west slope might say with strong easterly flow causing downslope high winds and drying.

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Other places routinely get more than JSpin in the different events...the thing with his location is it won't get screwed by any wind direction. Someone may be better at east flow, some better at west flow (say Underhill), but J's spot will do better at both of them in the means.

There's been some west slope events where I've gotten like 2" while J gets 7-8", and that's where most of our differences have come from, plus he had some mesoscale stuff where Waterbury did well in general.

That's the beauty of his location...he's never looking at an event and saying, "We usually don't do that well in these type set ups"....like I might say on a blocked flow NW upslope for example. Or someone on the west slope might say with strong easterly flow causing downslope high winds and drying.

I also think that his absolute precision and consistency with measuring is an an important aspect too. He rarely, if ever, misses his regular 6 hour measurements. I could live next door to him and not measure as much just because of my natural propensity to be a slacker.
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Picked up more than I thought overnight. 3". Decided it was best to snowblow the driveway as to avoid any refreeze/rutting situation, although 50F+ tonite and downpours should melt most of the packed snow layer currently present. FWIW, with only ~7-8" base on the ground, the woods and around the house look the best it's looked all winter. We're one decent storm away from getting sledding trails open and groomed, now this. With 40F tomorrow and Saturday looking minimal, I guess we start looking towards the end of the month/March for anything significant. This just blows. 

 

It is a wire to wire ratter. There is not getting around this being the most horrendous winter in many decades. I am already counting down until next winter. I wish we could just skip right over spring and summer. The second half everyone was talking about just did not materialize.

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It is a wire to wire ratter. There is not getting around this being the most horrendous winter in many decades. I am already counting down until next winter. I wish we could just skip right over spring and summer. The second half everyone was talking about just did not materialize.

 

I thought you got to the acceptance stage?  You still seem in the angry stage, lol.

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I got the same report from SB.  Not for 'nothing, but is it possible we see a net gain on the mtns from this.  3" of cement could be somewhat helpful.

 

Yeah so here is the 1,500ft snow board at Stowe as of 12pm. 

 

I've decided to leave the snow on the board to see what it looks like tomorrow to assess the "net gain" potential.  Not very confident on any backside snow accums so figured it was safe to leave it on there till tomorrow morning.

 

This stuff has easily over a half inch of QPF in it, so I think it will take some work/energy to fully melt this off.

 

The funny thing is the snowbanks are about as big as they've been all winter from this event.  3-4" of heavy moisture laden and crusty snow probably causes more snowbank material than if we got 15" of fluff (if one cares about the height of berms on the side of the road, lol).

 

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It is a wire to wire ratter. There is not getting around this being the most horrendous winter in many decades. I am already counting down until next winter. I wish we could just skip right over spring and summer. The second half everyone was talking about just did not materialize.

 

Not yet, anyway, though the upper half of the hourglass doesn't have much left.   This is now my worst snow winter YTD of 18 here.  I'd only need 3.2" before March 2 to leapfrog 2007 and be 2nd worst.  Of course, I don't expect April to dump 37" of snow like it did that year, which finished with 95.3".  We can only dream...

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Not yet, anyway, though the upper half of the hourglass doesn't have much left.   This is now my worst snow winter YTD of 18 here.  I'd only need 3.2" before March 2 to leapfrog 2007 and be 2nd worst.  Of course, I don't expect April to dump 37" of snow like it did that year, which finished with 95.3".  We can only dream...

 

Congrats... to all of us for this lovely winter Nature has bestowed upon New England.

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Yeah so here is the 1,500ft snow board at Stowe as of 12pm. 

 

I've decided to leave the snow on the board to see what it looks like tomorrow to assess the "net gain" potential.  Not very confident on any backside snow accums so figured it was safe to leave it on there till tomorrow morning.

 

This stuff has easily over a half inch of QPF in it, so I think it will take some work/energy to fully melt this off.

 

The funny thing is the snowbanks are about as big as they've been all winter from this event.  3-4" of heavy moisture laden and crusty snow probably causes more snowbank material than if we got 15" of fluff (if one cares about the height of berms on the side of the road, lol).

 

attachicon.gifFeb_16.jpg

I care.  if we can hold on to some of that, then we can start putting some fluff on top of it.  next thing ya know, we might even be able to make some turns in the woods before this abortion of a winter is over.

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Guys.  It's only Feb 16th in NNE.  I have seen very snowy March's and early April's.  That gives us 8 more week for potentials.  Not that this pattern in conducive to heavy snow but we can see what can happen.  Look at the Mid Atlantic a couple of weeks ago.  I'll eat my hat if we just get a few more 3-5 inchers and that is it.  

 

Meanwhile this will probably be a net gain for me.  4" of snow with a crust on top on top of a couple inches of glacier.  It's going to take more than 8 hours or rain and warmth to get me to bare ground.  This afternoon will be interesting.  In thick fog right now and 35.5F

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Guys.  It's only Feb 16th in NNE.  I have seen very snowy March's and early April's.  That gives us 8 more week for potentials.  Not that this pattern in conducive to heavy snow but we can see what can happen.  Look at the Mid Atlantic a couple of weeks ago.  I'll eat my hat if we just get a few more 3-5 inchers and that is it.  

 

Meanwhile this will probably be a net gain for me.  4" of snow with a crust on top on top of a couple inches of glacier.  It's going to take more than 8 hours or rain and warmth to get me to bare ground.  This afternoon will be interesting.  In thick fog right now and 35.5F

 

Yeah I think a net gain may happen here too...but we've got a long way to go as we may not go below freezing until sometime tomorrow morning...if that.  It may rot around 32F most of tomorrow.

 

Regarding you eating your hat... I think if we got a "few" more 3-5" events that would be very snowy.  I had 2.5" in this event and can say I still haven't seen 4" of pure snow fall in one single setting yet this season.  So 3-5 inch events would be up there for largest events of the year and would be a huge win.

 

We've all seen snowy March and Aprils before, but given the seasonal tenor, its hard to really bite on any significant changes at this time.  I'd be more than happy with just a couple advisory level snows and call it a season.  Actually I just want one like 4-6" event of pure snow and all of it falls within 12 hours.  That'd be freakin' sweet.  lol.

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Guys.  It's only Feb 16th in NNE.  I have seen very snowy March's and early April's.  That gives us 8 more week for potentials.  Not that this pattern in conducive to heavy snow but we can see what can happen.  Look at the Mid Atlantic a couple of weeks ago.  I'll eat my hat if we just get a few more 3-5 inchers and that is it.  

 

Meanwhile this will probably be a net gain for me.  4" of snow with a crust on top on top of a couple inches of glacier.  It's going to take more than 8 hours or rain and warmth to get me to bare ground.  This afternoon will be interesting.  In thick fog right now and 35.5F

Ah, the voice of reason. The angel on the shoulder. I ain't falling for the "it's only mid-Feb". We've been burned all season with hopes of a colder, snowier pattern that never really materialize or having staying power. Roaring south winds, heavy liquid, and 50F+ will put a nice dent in the snow. I expect to see a lot of grass in the morning. But, I'll try and be optimistic with the rest of the season, but it just doesn't look like much change.

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