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NNE Winter. Will it ever snow again?


mreaves

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Unnerving. Sb reporting 9" summit.

 

2-3" in the base area here and "at least 4 inches on the upper mountain".

 

Gotta go out and check the board at 3,000ft. 

 

Regarding Sugarbush they had good squalls it looked like and same with MRG.  That area was the little jackpot.  I want to see what the Co-Op reports show from the west side there.  Someone like Lincoln or Starksboro on the west slope could've gotten 8" last night. 

 

I also actually just looked it up and I think my "upper mountain" snowboard at 3,000ft is the same elevation as their mid-mountain reports from the top of Super Bravo for comparison.  I never really thought about it but if they are at the top of Heavens Gate measuring its like almost 1,000ft higher, no?

 

May need to throw another board in the woods at 3,700ft to even it out.  We had a lot of media folks here on Tuesday and I skied with one yesterday and they were curious as to why the snow board is only 2/3rds of the way up the hill for upper mountain snow.  And I explained I wanted something to simulate what you'd be skiing on, not necessary just at the top of the lift and they looked at me like I had three heads.  We had a good chuckle.

 

Looked like Jay was 6-8", Smuggs said 6" (but now updated to 3-6"), Sugarbush 4-9", MRG 6-8", Killington 1".

 

Man Killington can't catch a break at all.  They are at 35" of snowfall and the next mountain north is Sugarbush with 92" of snowfall.

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Event totals: 4.9” Snow/0.17” L.E.

 

The snowfall has been ramping up to something much more typical of a decent pattern around here over the past day; evening and morning observations reports are below.

 

Details from the 8:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 1.8 inches

New Liquid: 0.10 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 18.0

Snow Density: 5.6% H2O

Temperature: 24.3 F

Sky: Light Snow (1-5 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 3.0 inches

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 1.9 inches

New Liquid: 0.06 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 31.7

Snow Density: 3.2% H2O

Temperature: 20.3 F

Sky: Light Snow (1-2 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 4.5 inches

 

Our forecast here at the house continues to looks snowy through the rest of the week, with projected accumulations in the 3-6” range:

 

10FEB16A.jpg

 

There certainly wasn’t any trouble hitting the 3-6” that the BTV NWS called for in their point forecast from earlier this week, and it’s only Thursday.  There’s actually another 3-5” in the point forecast here through Saturday with the persistence of this upper level trough and then a more defined Alberta Clipper on Friday night.

 

The BTV NWS hasn’t really been breaking out many specific shortwave details from the upper level trough over the past few days, and for the most part it’s just been continuously snowing, so I’ve been logging this as one event.  If the anticipated Friday night Alberta Clipper system and associated arctic front is defined enough I’ll be able to isolate it in my records as its own storm.

 

FXUS61 KBTV 110951

AFDBTV

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT

451 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

 

.SYNOPSIS...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR OUR WEATHER FROM TODAY STRAIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES CONTINUE AND WILL BE MOST PERSISTENT IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY AND THE LAKE EFFECT PRONE AREAS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK ON FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SQUALLS FRIDAY EVENING, FOLLOWED BY THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON THUS FAR FOR THE WEEKEND.

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2-3" in the base area here and "at least 4 inches on the upper mountain".

 

Gotta go out and check the board at 3,000ft. 

 

Regarding Sugarbush they had good squalls it looked like and same with MRG.  That area was the little jackpot.  I also actually just looked it up and I think my "upper mountain" snowboard at 3,000ft is the same elevation as their mid-mountain reports from the top of Super Bravo.  I never really thought about it but if they are at the top of Heavens Gate measuring its like almost 1,000ft higher, no?

 

May need to throw another board in the woods at 3,700ft to even it out.  We had a lot of media folks here on Tuesday and I skied with one yesterday and they were curious as to why the snow board is only 2/3rds of the way up the hill for upper mountain snow.  And I explained I wanted something to simulate what you'd be skiing on, not necessary just at the top of the lift and they looked at me like I had three heads.  We had a good chuckle.

 

I think the SB higher report lines up with what the WRF was showing and what radar showed. Clearly a higher pulse of moisture and energy down that way.  

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Hmmmmmmm. Things have got to break our way at some point. I'm going to follow mreaves lead and shun shaving. Kind of like the playoffs. Hope to have some ice forming on the whiskers next week.

From btv

MODELS DIVERGE ON SOLUTION FOR

NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES FOR NEXT WEEK. WITH HIGH

UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT THE THE REST OF THE

PERIOD.

It can only help.  I think the power of the beard (or pseudo-beard in my case) is self evident.  It's finally starting to act like Vermont out there. I  ended up picking up about 1.5" when all was said and done overnight. Maybe with a little more growth we can turn next week's system into a shellacking.

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2-3" in the base area here and "at least 4 inches on the upper mountain".

Gotta go out and check the board at 3,000ft.

Regarding Sugarbush they had good squalls it looked like and same with MRG. That area was the little jackpot. I want to see what the Co-Op reports show from the west side there. Someone like Lincoln or Starksboro on the west slope could've gotten 8" last night.

I also actually just looked it up and I think my "upper mountain" snowboard at 3,000ft is the same elevation as their mid-mountain reports from the top of Super Bravo for comparison. I never really thought about it but if they are at the top of Heavens Gate measuring its like almost 1,000ft higher, no?

May need to throw another board in the woods at 3,700ft to even it out. We had a lot of media folks here on Tuesday and I skied with one yesterday and they were curious as to why the snow board is only 2/3rds of the way up the hill for upper mountain snow. And I explained I wanted something to simulate what you'd be skiing on, not necessary just at the top of the lift and they looked at me like I had three heads. We had a good chuckle.

Looked like Jay was 6-8", Smuggs said 6" (but now updated to 3-6"), Sugarbush 4-9", MRG 6-8", Killington 1".

Man Killington can't catch a break at all. They are at 35" of snowfall and the next mountain north is Sugarbush with 92" of snowfall.

I kind of had a feeling we were in a good spot when the btv discussion mentioned lake effect streamers off Lake Ontario. We seem to do well with that.

Assuming the natural snow trails will reopen.

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2-3" in the base area here and "at least 4 inches on the upper mountain".

 

Gotta go out and check the board at 3,000ft. 

 

Regarding Sugarbush they had good squalls it looked like and same with MRG.  That area was the little jackpot.  I want to see what the Co-Op reports show from the west side there.  Someone like Lincoln or Starksboro on the west slope could've gotten 8" last night. 

 

I also actually just looked it up and I think my "upper mountain" snowboard at 3,000ft is the same elevation as their mid-mountain reports from the top of Super Bravo for comparison.  I never really thought about it but if they are at the top of Heavens Gate measuring its like almost 1,000ft higher, no?

 

May need to throw another board in the woods at 3,700ft to even it out.  We had a lot of media folks here on Tuesday and I skied with one yesterday and they were curious as to why the snow board is only 2/3rds of the way up the hill for upper mountain snow.  And I explained I wanted something to simulate what you'd be skiing on, not necessary just at the top of the lift and they looked at me like I had three heads.  We had a good chuckle.

 

Looked like Jay was 6-8", Smuggs said 6" (but now updated to 3-6"), Sugarbush 4-9", MRG 6-8", Killington 1".

 

Man Killington can't catch a break at all.  They are at 35" of snowfall and the next mountain north is Sugarbush with 92" of snowfall.

I think they do the mid mtn from the base of the heavens gate lift which would be about 3000'.  Gadd peak where the super bravo lets off is 3150'.  Lincoln peak is 3975' and the top of heavens gate is slightly below that.

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Huh?  anything thats not a cutter looks good to me.

It's a thread the needle system. H7 cuts west of VT on the 6z GFS...H85 over the state.

 

I'm not saying it's putrid...it's one of the better solutions out there if you want snow. I just thought that snow map looked too generous.

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Looked like Jay was 6-8", Smuggs said 6" (but now updated to 3-6"), Sugarbush 4-9", MRG 6-8", Killington 1".

 

Thanks for the updates PF.  I’ve put together the usual north to south listing of available snowfall totals from the Vermont ski areas – these totals are what I could assemble for this week’s ongoing event with the general upper level low.  It’s a really interesting pattern with this event, with that huge spike in the Mad River Valley areas of North-Central Vermont as people have noted, then there’s a tier of snowfall below that in Northern Vermont and Southern Vermont.  Amazingly, as PF noted above, there was a huge hole in Central Vermont as seen from Suicide Six down to Okemo:

 

Jay Peak: 9”

Burke: 5”

Smuggler’s Notch: 9”

Stowe: 9”

Bolton Valley: 6”

Mad River Glen: 17”

Sugarbush: 13”

Middlebury: 8”

Suicide Six: 2”

Pico: 1”

Killington: 1”

Okemo: 4”

Bromley: 11”

Stratton: 10”

Mount Snow: 9”

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Huh?  anything thats not a cutter looks good to me.

 

06 gfs drowns everybody east of the NH-Maine line, taking the initial 2-5" SN with it.  Forecast winds at 850 are south at 100+ for all but the farthest west in Maine, even 75+ at RUM.  Doubt my CAD kingdom can withstand that. 

 

If all that were to verify, it might look like a repeat of 2/2/1976, when gusts to 115 mph were clocked along Penobscot Bay, and so much water got blown up the estuary that it flooded downtown BGR.  (Mostly just parking lots, fortunately, though the 200+ car owners weren't too pleased.)  Water rose 15 feet in 15 minutes.

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It can only help.  I think the power of the beard (or pseudo-beard in my case) is self evident.  It's finally starting to act like Vermont out there. I  ended up picking up about 1.5" when all was said and done overnight. Maybe with a little more growth we can turn next week's system into a shellacking.

I take it back hitman!  The power of two shaving strikes has the GFS flooding us!  

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Thanks for the updates PF.  I’ve put together the usual north to south listing of available snowfall totals from the Vermont ski areas – these totals are what I could assemble for this week’s ongoing event with the general upper level low.  It’s a really interesting pattern with this event, with that huge spike in the Mad River Valley areas of North-Central Vermont as people have noted, then there’s a tier of snowfall below that in Northern Vermont and Southern Vermont.  Amazingly, as PF noted above, there was a huge hole in Central Vermont as seen from Suicide Six down to Okemo:

 

Jay Peak: 9”

Burke: 5”

Smuggler’s Notch: 9”

Stowe: 9”

Bolton Valley: 6”

Mad River Glen: 17”

Sugarbush: 13”

Middlebury: 8”

Suicide Six: 2”

Pico: 1”

Killington: 1”

Okemo: 4”

Bromley: 11”

Stratton: 10”

Mount Snow: 9”

 

Holy crap at MRG!  13" in the last 24 hours at the summit and still snowing.

 

This was last night's accums at 3,000ft on Mansfield.

 

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its still dumping on the webcams.  time for me to get of the office and hit the road.

From the Mad River Glen website --

 

Localized Lake Effect Storm Re-opens MRG!

 

10-20" (SERIOUSLY) of fluffy "Champlain Powder" has been delivered overnight and throughout the day and MRG is back in business on Friday! Oh and by the way… still DUMPING and doesn’t seem to be letting up!  We have received upwards of 20" of new snow this week so far and not a moment too soon!  It’s absolutely blower, the kind of “Champlain Powder” we sometimes get when the lake is unfrozen and the wind hits just right. Weird thing is that there is very little new snow just a few hundred feet in elevation down from the base area – very localized storm – very cool indeed!

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