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NNE Winter. Will it ever snow again?


mreaves

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This was off-topic stuff in the thread it was in, but it prompted me to check my data set and write up some comments, and it seems good for the NNE thread:

 

We will need to see a big final month to 6 weeks over the interior and CNE/NNE for much of the region to have a better winter than '97-'98...we can already rule out some of the really bad places like where PF is....they aren't going to have a winter as snowy as that year.

 

You do realize that a lot of NNE can get crushed into April, right?

 

We’re all for getting crushed right through April, but people should appreciate that Will is on the right track with his comments.  Snowfall deficits like we’ve got up here this late in the season are monstrous.  You can’t recover from them in one storm, or even a few storms, we’re going to have to get into a storm train and have those usual NVT daily snowfalls doing their thing as well.

 

Using my data set, it’s not even possible to cherry pick months to get from where we are right now to a good season.  It would require back to back to back record months of February, March, and April, just to reach average seasonal snowfall.  And note, we’re already 10 days into February, and I’m including the February snowfall we’ve received, so that means that we don’t just have to see a record February – we have to see a record February (55”+) packed into just 20 days.  Then, that needs to be followed up by 60-70” in March/April.  Even if 2006-2007 (certainly setting the standard for amazing back ends of winter up here, with 95” from this point through April) was to walk through the door right now, we’d still end up well short of average.

 

For the mountains, my valley numbers have to be doubled, so as long as the mountains can casually whip out a couple of 100” months, things should be fine.  I’m sure PF can give the lowdown on the last time we’ve had back to back 100” months on Mansfield

 

Obviously the spring of 2007 showed us what’s possible, so if we were to somehow match or exceed that performance, it would be one hell of a snowy ride that people would be talking about for a long time.

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The scene as snow showers rolled in. Some good sized flakes were flying earlier but no accumulation for now:

 

12698530_10103117271280279_7118188717459

 

12716262_10103117302597519_1083966990934

 

What is falling now is melting and we have lost our cover from the last couple of days. It won't stick until later tonight around here unless we get a heavy burst.

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Gray flakeless day here, though I got a dusting overnight.  Some snowfall numbers thru Feb 9 compared to their avg YTD, for the eastern part of NNE:

 

CAR    50.5"    75%

BGR    33.2"    81%

PWM   34.5"    90%

CON    20.3"    51%

 

MBY    32.5"    63%

 

Looking like a 2nd year in a row where coast beats inland.  Yes, CAR is certainly inland, but their snowfall variation as a proportion of avg is much lower than the other locations.  A 75% winter would be their 12th lowest of 76.  (And a 63% winter in Farmington would be their 9th lowest of 123.)

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Flow is blocked with the low level northerly flow and relatively weak westerly flow above that... pretty cool as you can see it blossoming on the western slope because of that.  Our snow has shut off here on the east side after an inch or so.  We'll see if additional pulses of moisture aloft can work their way over the mountains.

 

 

 

 

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Flow is blocked with the low level northerly flow and relatively weak westerly flow above that... pretty cool as you can see it blossoming on the western slope because of that. Our snow has shut off here on the east side after an inch or so. We'll see if additional pulses of moisture aloft can work their way over the mountains.

Feb_10b.gif

Feb_10bVAD.gif

I figured that was the case with those on the other side getting snow and me getting flurries :(
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I figured that was the case with those on the other side getting snow and me getting flurries :(

 

You can come and collect all my snow if you want. I hate to see you slowly unraveling like this. :(

 

Big, fat flakes falling here in New Haven, VT. The video doesn't do the scene justice. It looks like I'm living in a snow globe right now. Accumulating fast.

Everybody loves yellow pixels.

Welcome to NNE.

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Hmmmmmmm. Things have got to break our way at some point. I'm going to follow mreaves lead and shun shaving. Kind of like the playoffs. Hope to have some ice forming on the whiskers next week.

From btv

MODELS DIVERGE ON SOLUTION FOR

NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES FOR NEXT WEEK. WITH HIGH

UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT THE THE REST OF THE

PERIOD.

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