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Feb 2-3 Tn Valley Severe Storms OBS


jaxjagman

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Here is my outlook. I was looking at supercell composite parameter values, as well as surface based CAPE values, for the different forecast hours tomorrow (Tuesday.) Threat-wise, I think it is at least a 15% wind/5% tornado risk, if not higher. (Not trying to go crazy here, but maybe 10% tornado risk.) I think there is a minor threat of severe weather north of the Ohio River. My best guess for supercell activity in northeast Mississippi is based off the 4km NAM reflectivity, and the area where the CAPE/shear/helicity is the highest. This includes a considerable 0-3km SRH of 400 m2/s2 in northeast Mississippi, up to Nashville. Dew points should max out in the upper 60's at the Mississippi/Alabama border.

 

 

 

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Sounds and looks reasonable,thanks for your input.

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Great wind fields with low instability is like winter storm low press swinging through Georgia and the Carolinas while our 850 temps are +2C. Oh but things can change. If the surface heats up better than forecast the CAPE LI and EHI will respond accordingly. I am not really excited about that prospect, but anything can happen.

 

Basically the mid levels are a touch warm on the sounding. It is true upstream; and, it should advect in here for Tuesday. Keep in mind the parent system has been trending north for 48 hours now. All the splicing of levels and/or indices aside, a quick look at fundamentals helps. Low press going through Wisconsin is just not the same as going through Illinois for Mid South mayhem.

 

SPC looks good at ENH; no MDT unless instability spikes. I am not going to lose any sleep over this. Event would be totally un-chasable with high storm speeds and possibly best low-level mesoscale details toward dark. I never like a big outbreak in a populated area anyway. Prefer local set-ups impacting far fewer people.

 

All my skepticism aside, I am thrilled to see so much interest in this thread. Great to see the list of members interested in severe weather is growing!

Gonna get windy,i like watching the trees bend,as long as they don't bend on my house or on the power lines..lol

 

 

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

250 PM EST MON FEB 1 2016

...STRONG WINDS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY

MORNING...

.A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND

GREAT LAKES...CREATING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE

TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 30

MPH ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE

AT TIMES IN SOME SPOTS.

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-

005-006-008-021000-

/O.NEW.KMRX.WI.Y.0003.160202T2100Z-160203T1500Z/

CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-

SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-

NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-

SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-

SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-

BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-

SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-

SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-

WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MURPHY...HAYESVILLE...ONEIDA...

LA FOLLETTE...TAZEWELL...SNEEDVILLE...ROGERSVILLE...KINGSPORT...

BRISTOL...MOUNTAIN CITY...WARTBURG...CLINTON...OAK RIDGE...

MAYNARDVILLE...RUTLEDGE...MORRISTOWN...NEWPORT...COSBY...

GREENEVILLE...CEDAR CREEK...JOHNSON CITY...ERWIN...ELIZABETHTON...

ROAN MOUNTAIN...KINGSTON...LENOIR CITY...KNOXVILLE...DANDRIDGE...

MARYVILLE...CADES COVE...SEVIERVILLE...GATLINBURG...DUNLAP...

PIKEVILLE...DAYTON...DECATUR...ATHENS...MADISONVILLE...

COKER CREEK...JASPER...CHATTANOOGA...CLEVELAND...BENTON...

DUCKTOWN...JONESVILLE...WISE...NORTON...GATE CITY...LEBANON...

ABINGDON

250 PM EST MON FEB 1 2016 /150 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016/

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ TUESDAY TO

10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A WIND

ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ TUESDAY TO

10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY.

* EVENT...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH

  WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS

  AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS

* TIMING...LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES WILL BE BLOWN DOWN...AND

  UNSECURED OUTDOOR OBJECTS MAY BE BLOWN OVER. DRIVING MAY BE

  DIFFICULT FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

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URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
322 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM CST TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT
CST TUESDAY NIGHT...

.A STRONG SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND PUSH A WARM FRONT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE AS THE TUESDAY MORNING HOURS PROGRESS. AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO
THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AS TUESDAY MORNING
PROGRESSES ALSO...A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE MID STATE. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH GUSTS OF 35 MPH TO 50 MPH EXPECTED FROM
THE MID MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY LASTING THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS.

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-021000-
/O.NEW.KOHX.WI.Y.0001.160202T1500Z-160203T0600Z/
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-HOUSTON-
HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-SMITH-
JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-WILLIAMSON-
MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-
COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-GILES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...CLARKSVILLE...SPRINGFIELD...
GALLATIN...LAFAYETTE...CELINA...BYRDSTOWN...ERIN...WAVERLY...
DICKSON...ASHLAND CITY...NASHVILLE...LEBANON...MOUNT JULIET...
HARTSVILLE...CARTHAGE...GAINESBORO...COOKEVILLE...LIVINGSTON...
JAMESTOWN...LOBELVILLE...CENTERVILLE...HOHENWALD...FRANKLIN...
BRENTWOOD...COLUMBIA...LEWISBURG...MURFREESBORO...WOODBURY...
SMITHVILLE...SPARTA...CROSSVILLE...SHELBYVILLE...TULLAHOMA...
MANCHESTER...MCMINNVILLE...ALTAMONT...SPENCER...WAYNESBORO...
LAWRENCEBURG...PULASKI
322 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
TUESDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT
CST TUESDAY NIGHT.

* TIMING...9 AM CST TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY NIGHT.

* WINDS...SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH.

* IMPACTS...DOWNED SMALL TREES AND OR DOWNED TREE LIMBS ALONG WITH
  ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. DRIVING MAY BE DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY
  FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OVER 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG MAY BLOW DOWN A FEW TREES OR TREE LIMBS AND CAUSE
ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. DRIVING MAY ALSO BECOME DIFFICULT...
ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

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I wish I could be more interested in this system, but I just don't see any potential in it for the East TN Valley. :(

 

It is MUCH better to observe from a safe distance. At about 4:15 the morning of April 27, 2011 a tornado-warned storm knocked out my electricity (among other things) for the next four days. No internet or TV. Two days later I was sent down to Phil Campbell without knowing how bad it was. That was something I never want to see again.

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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0701 AM CST TUE FEB 02 2016

   VALID 021300Z - 031200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS
   MS...AL...TN...KY...AND SRN IND...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENH AREA...FROM
   THE CNTRL GULF CST TO THE LWR OH VLY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ABOVE
   AREAS...FROM THE GULF CST INTO THE MID-OH VLY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADOES --- A FEW
   OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG --- ARE EXPECTED FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE
   THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY OVER PARTS OF THE
   SOUTH.

   ...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
   POTENT KS UPR LOW AND TROUGH EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NE INTO WI BY THE
   END OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE SYSTEM DEAMPLIFYING AS IT ENCOUNTERS
   CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE UPR GRT LKS. AT THE SAME TIME...SECONDARY
   SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER NW MEXICO SHOULD SHEAR ENE INTO TX THIS
   EVE...AND INTO THE LWR TN AND OH VLYS EARLY WED...AS UPSTREAM JET
   STREAK TRACKS SE INTO AZ/NM.

   KS SFC LOW SHOULD FURTHER OCCLUDE AS IT CONTINUES ENE INTO NRN MO
   THIS EVE AND TO LK MI BY 12Z WED. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP
   NE INTO THE LWR OH VLY EARLY TNGT...WHILE TRAILING SRN PORTION
   ADVANCES SOMEWHAT MORE SLOWLY E/SE INTO SW LA THIS EVE...AND TO NEAR
   MOB BY 12Z WED. MEANWHILE...W-E WARM FRONT NOW OVER AR AND THE
   MID-SOUTH SHOULD ACCELERATE/RE-FORM NWD THROUGH THE DAY...REACHING S
   CNTRL IL AND SW IND BY LATE AFTN...AND CONTINUING NE ACROSS THE
   MID-OH VLY TNGT/EARLY WED.

   ...LWR MS TO LWR-MID OH VLY TODAY/TNGT...
   SIGNIFICANT SVR WEATHER...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF A COUPLE STRONG
   TORNADOES...APPEARS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY THROUGH TNGT OVER PARTS OF
   LWR MS...TN...AND LWR OH VLYS.

   COMBINATION OF INCREASING LOW-LVL MOISTURE /WITH PW INCREASING TO
   AOA 1.50 INCHES/ AND STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD /WITH 500 MB SW FLOW
   AOA 75 KTS/ ATOP BROADENING WARM SECTOR ON SE SIDE OF KS UPR SYSTEM
   WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS...AND
   POTENTIALLY A FEW STRONG TORNADOES...LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY WED.

   MORNING RAOBS OVER THE LWR MS VLY...AND WELL-DEFINED...EWD-MOVING
   BORE OVER SRN MO/AR...INDICATE PRESENCE OF STOUT CAP/INHIBITION
   LAYER THAT LIKELY WILL DELAY ONSET OF SFC-BASED CONVECTION OVER MOST
   OF WARM SECTOR TIL POSSIBLY MID TO LATE AFTN. BY THAT
   TIME...HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF MODEST DAYTIME HEATING AND HEIGHT
   FALLS CLOSE TO UPR TROUGH EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A BAND OR TWO
   SFC-BASED TSTMS ALONG AND POSSIBLE JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM S
   CNTRL IL SSW INTO PARTS OF SE MO...FAR NE AR AND WRN TN.
   LONG...HOOKED HODOGRAPHS...WITH CONSIDERABLE 0-1 SRH PROVIDED BY
   SLIGHTLY BACKED NEAR-SFC FLOW...AND INCREASING MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS
   INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S F/ SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS WITH
   LOW-LVL MESOCYCLONES AND TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY IN WRN KY...WRN
   TN...AND NRN MS. THE STORMS LIKELY WILL EVOLVE INTO BROKEN LINE
   SEGMENTS WITH A CONTINUING RISK FOR TORNADOES AND DMGG WIND FROM
   EMBEDDED LEWPS THROUGH LATE EVE E/NE INTO MIDDLE TN AND CNTRL KY.

   FARTHER S...ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FORM BY LATE IN THE DAY IN
   SOMEWHAT MORE MOIST /SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 60S F/ AND CONFLUENT
   ENVIRONMENT OVER ERN MS AND WRN AL. GIVEN WEAK NATURE OF LOW-LVL
   FORCING...SOME LONGER-LIVED DISCRETE STORMS COULD EVOLVE THERE.
   GIVEN STRENGTH OF LOW-LVL VEERING WIND PROFILES...THESE TOO WILL
   HAVE AN ASSOCIATED RISK FOR TORNADOES INTO EARLY TNGT.

   FINALLY...OTHER STORMS SHOULD FORM BY LATE IN THE DAY ALONG
   EWD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT OVER WRN MS. THESE STORMS ALSO WILL BE IN
   AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR LONG-LASTING MESOCYCLONES AND POTENTIAL
   TORNADOES...ONE OR TWO OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG. GLANCING INFLUENCE
   OF NW MEXICO SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL STRENGTHEN LOW TO MID-LVL FLOW
   THIS EVE INTO TNGT OVER MS AND AL...AND MAY YIELD A SVR THREAT THAT
   LINGERS LATER INTO TNGT/EARLY WED THAN OTHERWISE WOULD HAVE BEEN THE
   CASE.

   ..CORFIDI/PICCA.. 02/02/2016

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It is MUCH better to observe from a safe distance. At about 4:15 the morning of April 27, 2011 a tornado-warned storm knocked out my electricity (among other things) for the next four days. No internet or TV. Two days later I was sent down to Phil Campbell without knowing how bad it was. That was something I never want to see again.

 

This is a great point and one I know I tend to forget at times. A friend of my ex-wife rode out Hurricane Hugo in SC in 1989...and to paraphrase his comment "I thought it was a good idea until the roof started bouncing up and down on the house." 

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The wind fields look good later on.Just looked at TYS on the HRRR showing some 70kts@ 850mb.Last NAM 4k looks the same

 

Sun beaming through my office window in Florence, Al. unfortunately. It's already 65 degrees with a dew point of 61.

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Sun beaming through my office window in Florence, Al. unfortunately. It's already 65 degrees with a dew point of 61.

Yeah my stinking garage door the rollers when i shut went pop,pop,pop this morn.It's all screwed up and hanging on by a needle.Hopefully it gets fixed in time,what i time to screw up.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0072
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0954 AM CST TUE FEB 02 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NERN AR...SERN MO...SRN IL...WRN MS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

   VALID 021554Z - 021730Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SOME UNCERTAINTY LINGERS CONCERNING TIMING...BUT TRENDS
   ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING STORM DEVELOPMENT CAPABLE OF
   PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...WHICH COULD
   COMMENCE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 17-18Z.

   DISCUSSION...STRONGEST UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID TO
   UPPER JET STREAK /100+ KT AT 500 MB/ NOW NOSING THROUGH THE LOWER
   MISSOURI VALLEY CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE
   REGION.  HOWEVER...GRADUAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ARE NOW UNDERWAY
   SOUTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE MIDDLE TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY...AHEAD OF APPROACHING LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING.

   AS THIS CONTINUES...ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL COOLING...COUPLED WITH
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION...APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO
   INCREASING INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING INHIBITION.  WEAK BOUNDARY
   LAYER DESTABILIZATION IS BEING AUGMENTED ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
   ARKANSAS INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF WESTERN TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI
   BOOTHEEL BY SURFACE HEATING.  GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT THE
   ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY CONDUCIVE TO BOUNDARY LAYER
   BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT.  THIS MAY INCLUDE INTENSIFICATION OF AN
   APPROACHING FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION...AND DISCRETE STORM
   DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF IT.

   STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE
   STORM DEVELOPMENT.  AND STRONG TO EXTREME LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG A
   50+ KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET AXIS MAY SUPPORT LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES
   CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES AND LOCALLY ENHANCED DAMAGING WIND
   POTENTIAL.  THIS THREAT PROBABLY WILL DEVELOP FURTHER NORTHEASTWARD
   WITH WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION INTO AT LEAST PARTS
   OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

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It is MUCH better to observe from a safe distance. At about 4:15 the morning of April 27, 2011 a tornado-warned storm knocked out my electricity (among other things) for the next four days. No internet or TV. Two days later I was sent down to Phil Campbell without knowing how bad it was. That was something I never want to see again.

I became a weather spotter last February, and I haven't been able to report one thing yet to MRX. I'd like to at least be able to report something, lol.

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I became a weather spotter last February, and I haven't been able to report one thing yet to MRX. I'd like to at least be able to report something, lol.

 

Oh, ok. I understand. Maybe you'll get one that goes through a wilderness area up there so no one will get hurt.

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 9
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1220 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

   * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
     EASTERN ARKANSAS
     SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
     WESTERN KENTUCKY
     SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
     NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
     WESTERN TENNESSEE

   * EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1220 PM UNTIL
     700 PM CST.

   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
     A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
     SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

   SUMMARY...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO EVOLVE
   ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
   WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED.

   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
   OWENSBORO KENTUCKY TO 40 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GREENWOOD
   MISSISSIPPI.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
   ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

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Mississippi is getting slammed. Anybody surprised? Actually they always had the best forecast for rotating storms, with the combination of instability and shear. Temperatures and dewpoints met expectations. Couple 70 dews mixed out to 68, not a surprise this windy, but it is moist up to 850 and the line is already rolling.

 

Western Tennessee has almost as much instability and impressive wind shear. Should be good for some high straight line winds; isolated tornado threat too. Farther east the I-65 corridor temps and dews are also on track, but those dews are lower than west, which may not be enough for big time severe. Should line up for some strong winds, but probably not tornadoes.

 

Hi-Res models always differentiated between the Mississippi Valley and I-65 corridor, despite rumblings of I-65 lighting up on a convergence zone. Only the farther west area had the following forecast: slightly elevated updraft helicity with some cells; locally higher/backed 925 mb winds near cells; and, some of the supercell/tornado parameters locally higher.

 

Both areas of interest had boundary enhancement other than the main front. Synoptic warm front lifted through West Tenn into Kentucky, leaving behind residual local helicity. Looks like a subtle pre-frontal trough in Mississippi, which is quite different from the convergence zone in Alabama. Mississippi boundary may be subtle but it is sharper.

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There could be a significant wind event along the mountains and adjacent areas of East TN tonight.  A strong LLJ will shift into the mountains this evening, along with a favorable wind profile and stable boundary layer near the mountains. The NAM also indicates that a temperature inversion may develop around 850mb over that area. All of this suggests a strong downslope/mountain wave event, with possible damaging wind gusts  in the usual areas.

 

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