jaxjagman Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Figured it's time to start a thread.Euro has been consistent with a severe threat for several runs.850mb winds in excess of 50+ kts from the S, shouldn't have much problem with any moisture lifting into the Valley.Dynamical system modeled to pull just to our NW.Though there is a tornado threat even if this doesn't transpire i believe we'll see several wind damage reports.With the latest snow and the a weaker system ahead of this one should add fuel to the fire for some tree damage reports with a saturated ground as the euro has been hinting wind gust in excess of 50kts through out the Valley. DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0357 AM CST THU JAN 28 2016 VALID 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE WILL AMPLIFY CONSIDERABLY AFTER DIGGING INLAND ACROSS THE CALIFORNIA COAST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING EXIST BETWEEN THE ECENS AND NCEP MREF CONCERNING THIS PROCESS. HOWEVER...THE 500 MB MEAN HEIGHT FIELD FORECASTS GENERATED BY THE TWO MODELS BECOME FAIRLY SIMILAR AS THE IMPULSE TURNS EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS NEXT MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. SPREAD THEN INCREASES ONCE AGAIN THEREAFTER...AS IT ACCELERATES ACROSS AND NORTHEAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IT STILL APPEARS THAT STRONG CYCLOGENESIS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE ALONG AN ARCING PATH...FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU AND OHIO VALLEY...THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BY LATE WEEK. WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW...A 100 KT JET STREAK AT 500 MB IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...COINCIDING WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 50-70 KT SOUTHERLY JET AT 850 MB. GREATEST SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME APPEAR IN A SWATH ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...WHERE A SUBSTANTIVE INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION. SEVERE STORM PROBABILITIES MAY BEGIN RAMPING UP LATE MONDAY EVENING NEAR THE ARKLATEX VICINITY...BEFORE CONTINUING OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARK PLATEAU AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE EVOLUTION OF A SEVERE SQUALL LINE APPEARS POSSIBLE BY EARLY TUESDAY...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND RAPIDLY PROPAGATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO AND THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. NEAR OR JUST AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE SQUALL LINE...ACROSS PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES ALL APPEAR POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Heck yeah it's time to start a thread! Those wind fields are impressive and should result in some type of strong to severe thunderstorms. Some runs offer a subtle hint of separate southern upper level energy in spite of the surface low ejecting north. Such a scenario would re-energize an existing squall line. Speaking of, the line just gets started late Monday. Perhaps it will not be a rain-out mess on Tuesday morning. Looks like not too much of a Gulf Coast rain blob shown; however, action on the warm front could limit northward expansion. Closer to March I'd feel pretty confident about this set-up. Being the first of February, chance destabilization failing is real. Still this is clearly the most interesting thread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 28, 2016 Author Share Posted January 28, 2016 Heck yeah it's time to start a thread! Those wind fields are impressive and should result in some type of strong to severe thunderstorms. Some runs offer a subtle hint of separate southern upper level energy in spite of the surface low ejecting north. Such a scenario would re-energize an existing squall line. Speaking of, the line just gets started late Monday. Perhaps it will not be a rain-out mess on Tuesday morning. Looks like not too much of a Gulf Coast rain blob shown; however, action on the warm front could limit northward expansion. Closer to March I'd feel pretty confident about this set-up. Being the first of February, chance destabilization failing is real. Still this is clearly the most interesting thread! Love a good storm.Probably banter but i hope the euro gets better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Give me some thunder in the mountains during winter. Within two weeks, winter returns. I used to laught at that rule until...well, until I actually looked at the results. Hopefully the severe wx isn't too bad. Edit...My severe wx bill during the past 1.5 yrs is over 20k. Insurance covered most of it, but still had to pay 2k out of pocket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 28, 2016 Author Share Posted January 28, 2016 Euro and GFS looks quite similar other than some smaller details on todays 12z runs.GFS has been on the slower side than the Euro.Euro seems to be fitting into the GFS slower side.Storm as it heads from the western Valley is being shown to strenghten rapidly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 28, 2016 Author Share Posted January 28, 2016 Forbes torcon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Five day out Torcons....What is the world coming too...Stormmaster G needs to put his foot down! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Dr. Greg Forbes.png Forbes torcon Is that a 4 for the entire state of Tennessee? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 28, 2016 Author Share Posted January 28, 2016 Five day out Torcons....What is the world coming too...Stormmaster G needs to put his foot down! He said it ..lol https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vcqel1M2av8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 28, 2016 Author Share Posted January 28, 2016 Is that a 4 for the entire state of Tennessee? https://weather.com/tv/shows/amhq/news/tornado-torcon-index Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 https://weather.com/tv/shows/amhq/news/tornado-torcon-index I'm guessing when he doesn't specify a specific part of the state, he is talking about the entire state, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 29, 2016 Author Share Posted January 29, 2016 GFS is showing what the euro has been showing,even if like i said earlier there is no tornado, the wind damage could be extreme in the Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 29, 2016 Author Share Posted January 29, 2016 ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290905 SPC AC 290905 DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0305 AM CST FRI JAN 29 2016 VALID 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE D4-D6 PERIOD INDICATING A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER PERHAPS BEGINNING AS EARLY AS LATE MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF AR...NRN LA AND NERN TX...WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL THREAT EXPANDING ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES NWD TO THE OH VALLEY. ON MON/D4...LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AS A STRONG UPPER JET INTENSIFIES ACROSS OK AND TX. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE RAPIDLY INCREASING AS SLY WINDS STRENGTHEN...BUT INSTABILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO FAVOR SEVERE STORMS UNTIL LATE IN THE D4 PERIOD WHEN 60-65 F DEWPOINTS WILL PRECEDE THE COLD FRONT FROM ARKANSAS SWD. STORMS SHOULD FORM IN THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS OR SMALL BOWS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS OR BRIEF TORNADOES. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MATURE WITH AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT TO THE E ON TUE/D5...WITH BOTH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE BEST OVERLAP OF INSTABILITY AND ASCENT WOULD APPEAR TO BE FROM CNTRL AND NRN MS INTO NRN AL...WRN AND MIDDLE TN DURING THE DAY...OR JUST E OF THE MS RIVER. DESPITE THE WEAK INSTABILITY...EXTREME SHEAR PROFILES WILL FAVOR A FEW TORNADOES...POSSIBLY ONE OR TWO STRONG...ALONG WITH DAMAGING BOWING STRUCTURES. SOME SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY TO PERSIST AFTER 00Z ACROSS AL...THE FL PANHANDLE...NWRN GA AND PERHAPS ERN TN/KY...BUT CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE OPTIMAL WITH THE LOW CONTINUING TO LIFT NWD...LEAVING THE INSTABILITY BEHIND TO THE S. ..JEWELL.. 01/29/2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 d4.png d5.png ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290905 SPC AC 290905 DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0305 AM CST FRI JAN 29 2016 VALID 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE D4-D6 PERIOD INDICATING A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER PERHAPS BEGINNING AS EARLY AS LATE MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF AR...NRN LA AND NERN TX...WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL THREAT EXPANDING ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES NWD TO THE OH VALLEY. ON MON/D4...LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AS A STRONG UPPER JET INTENSIFIES ACROSS OK AND TX. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE RAPIDLY INCREASING AS SLY WINDS STRENGTHEN...BUT INSTABILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO FAVOR SEVERE STORMS UNTIL LATE IN THE D4 PERIOD WHEN 60-65 F DEWPOINTS WILL PRECEDE THE COLD FRONT FROM ARKANSAS SWD. STORMS SHOULD FORM IN THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS OR SMALL BOWS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS OR BRIEF TORNADOES. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MATURE WITH AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT TO THE E ON TUE/D5...WITH BOTH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE BEST OVERLAP OF INSTABILITY AND ASCENT WOULD APPEAR TO BE FROM CNTRL AND NRN MS INTO NRN AL...WRN AND MIDDLE TN DURING THE DAY...OR JUST E OF THE MS RIVER. DESPITE THE WEAK INSTABILITY...EXTREME SHEAR PROFILES WILL FAVOR A FEW TORNADOES...POSSIBLY ONE OR TWO STRONG...ALONG WITH DAMAGING BOWING STRUCTURES. SOME SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY TO PERSIST AFTER 00Z ACROSS AL...THE FL PANHANDLE...NWRN GA AND PERHAPS ERN TN/KY...BUT CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE OPTIMAL WITH THE LOW CONTINUING TO LIFT NWD...LEAVING THE INSTABILITY BEHIND TO THE S. ..JEWELL.. 01/29/2016 Well, at least it looks like East Tennessee's Severe threat appears to be limited to the usual "a few spots see wind damage, but it won't be that bad for most areas". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 29, 2016 Author Share Posted January 29, 2016 This afternoons models show a shift to the S somewhat.The GEM is the furthest S but it gets no support from any other model even the GEPS.Looks like with the further shift S this will go into the eastern part of the Valley over night.The showalter for the east was basically non-existent now it's showing something.So there is convection being shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 This afternoons models show a shift to the S somewhat.The GEM is the furthest S but it gets no support from any other model even the GEPS.Looks like with the further shift S this will go into the eastern part of the Valley over night.The showalter for the east was basically non-existent now it's showing something.So there is convection being shown. In other words, folks in East TN Valley need to keep an eye on this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 29, 2016 Author Share Posted January 29, 2016 In other words, folks in East TN Valley need to keep an eye on this system. Yeah it looks better now to the E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Yeah it looks better now to the E I got a question. Does this look like just a big squall line event, or could there be some smaller bow segments and supercells in addition? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 29, 2016 Author Share Posted January 29, 2016 I got a question. Does this look like just a big squall line event, or could there be some smaller bow segments and supercells in addition? Looks like a strong line right now,but this could change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 How are the models looking now, Wareagle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 The top CIPS analog is 1/10/2008. That day ended up being a moderate risk and produced 36 tornado reports. A PDS watch was issued from the KY/TN border down to the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 30, 2016 Author Share Posted January 30, 2016 How are the models looking now, Wareagle? Some minor changes,we'll see what the 0Z runs show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 30, 2016 Author Share Posted January 30, 2016 Seen this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 cipps.png Seen this one Reports everywhere except the valley in East TN, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 I'm almost hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 30, 2016 Author Share Posted January 30, 2016 GFS and the GEFS shifted N.See what the euro says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 GFS and the GEFS shifted N.See what the euro says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 30, 2016 Author Share Posted January 30, 2016 DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0226 AM CST SAT JAN 30 2016 VALID 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH AND SFC FEATURES RESULTING IN A SLIGHT WWD SHIFT IN SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR TUE/D4. IN ADDITION...INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LESS COMPARED TO EARLIER PROGS WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. NONETHELESS...STRONG FORCING FROM THE SFC LOW SWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND A LONG DURATION OF STRONG WIND FIELDS SHOULD RESULT IN A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH A SQUALL LINE...AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES FROM NRN MS TO THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY. AS THE SFC LOW MOVES NEWD QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING...A MOIST AIR MASS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST WITH MORE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THERE. FOR WED/D5...A SUBSTANTIAL ZONE OF SWLY FLOW WILL EXIST ACROSS THE SERN TO MID ATLANTIC STATES...BUT FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE RATHER WEAK EXCEPT FOR WHAT REMAINS OF THE SFC TROUGH. WHILE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S F SHOULD EXIST AS FAR N AS NC...WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT/POOR LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO WEAK INSTABILITY PROFILES WHICH WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE LIKELY WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY WIND PROFILES...BUT POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW FOR A D5 AREA AT THIS JUNCTURE. COOL AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BEYOND WED/D5 AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE E COAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 30, 2016 Author Share Posted January 30, 2016 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN553 AM CST SAT JAN 30 2016 .DISCUSSION... WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL MOVETHROUGH THE AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING RATHERVIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA HEADED THIS WAY BUTMOISTURE IS LACKING SO ONLY EXPECT TO SEE SOME INCREASE IN UPPERLEVEL CLOUDINESS. SURFACE WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE DAY ASSURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ACROSS THE REGION AS SURFACELOW DEVELOPS IN SOUTHERN PLAINS. WILL BE CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY ONSUNDAY. HIGHS TODAY AND SUNDAY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S. LOW MOVESEAST ON SUNDAY WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT BRINGING A GOOD CHANCEFOR RAIN HERE IN THE MID STATE SUNDAY NIGHT. I CANT RULE OUT ARUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE SUNDAY NIGHT ASVERTICAL VELOCITIES ARE QUITE STRONG NEAR THE FRONT. FRONT WORKSEAST OF MID STATE EARLY MONDAY SO LOOK FOR COOLER TEMPS DURING THEDAY MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. UPPER ZONAL FLOW PATTERN INITIALLY ACROSS THE U.S THIS WEEKENDWILL BUCKLE OVER WESTERN U.S. AS WE GO INTO THE FIRST PART OF THEWORK WEEK. ENERGY HITTING THE WESTERN U.S COAST ON SUNDAY WILLDIG OUT A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WITH A 130 KNOT SPEED MAX NOSINGOUT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. MODELS HAVEBEEN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A STRONG AND DYNAMIC SURFACE CYCLONEACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND ARIZONA ON SUNDAY THAT MOVES OUT INTOTHE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND INTO SOUTHEASTKANSAS BY 12Z TUESDAY. THIS PLACES MID STATE WELL WITHIN WARMSECTOR DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. HERE`S THE WAY ISEE IT FOR NOW. THERE SHOULD BE AN ON-GOING QUASI-LINEAR LINE OFCONVECTION DOWN THROUGH EASTERN ARKANSAS BY 21Z TUESDAY THATMOVES SLOWLY EAST AND ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER BY 03Z TUESDAYEVENING AND THEN ALIGN ALONG INTERSTATE 65 BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAYNIGHT BEFORE PULLING OFF THE PLATEAU BY 12Z. LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIESDURING THE DAY AND REACHES 60 KNOTS EARLY TUESDAY EVENING WITHSTRONG BULK SHEAR IN THE MID STATE. I CAN SEE BULK SHEAR REACHINGAS MUCH AS 70 KNOTS HERE IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE BETWEEN 00Z TO 06ZTUESDAY EVENING. GOOD TURNING IN THE HODOGRAPHS AS WELL. IN ADDITIONTO WIND DAMAGE COULD SEE A TWISTER OR TWO HERE IN MIDDLE TENNESSEETUESDAY EVENING TO JUST PAST MIDNIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 30, 2016 Author Share Posted January 30, 2016 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN502 AM CST SAT JAN 30 2016 .DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CST SAT JAN 30 2016/ MILD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE MIDSOUTH TODAYAND SUNDAY. EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE LIFTINGINTO AR...WITH LITTLE TO NO ASSOCIATED CLOUDS PER IR CHANNEL.UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOLLOWING THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGELATER TODAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE TO THE MIDSOUTH ONSUNDAY NIGHT...SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO RESULT IN A WEAK SURFACEFRONTAL WAVE AND A BUMP IN RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WARMFRONT WILL RETURN NORTH ON MONDAY...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPERLEVEL LOW THAT WILL ARRIVE TO CENTRAL KS BY TUESDAY MORNING.MONDAY/S TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN MILD...UNDER STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTFLOW ALOFT. TODAY/S 00Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS TRACK THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPERLOW FROM CENTRAL KS TO NORTHERN IA TUESDAY...WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVEEJECTING FROM NORTHERN MO INTO SOUTHERN WI TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TOTHE SOUTH...NEUTRAL TO SLIGHT POSITIVELY ORIENTED HEIGHT FALLSWILL OCCUR OVER THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY.OVER THE MIDSOUTH...00Z GFS DEPICTED A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SFC-1KMMUCAPE AT OR BELOW 600 J/KG ALONG THE MS RIVER AT NOON TUESDAY.THE MODEST INSTABILITY APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDCOVER AND SCATTERED PRE FRONTAL SHOWERS. CONCURRENTLY... GFS PROGS925MB WINDS NEAR 55KT ALONG THE MS RIVER MIDDAY TUESDAY...THOUGHTHESE WINDS ARE DEPICTED ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD OFTHE CONVECTIVE LINE. GIVEN THE HEIGHT FALLS AND RELATIVELY STRONG WIND FIELDS...AISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL EXIST WHERE BOWING SEGMENTSARE ABLE TO PERSIST. IN ADDITION...THE RELATIVELY SHOW EASTWARDMOVEMENT OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOCALLYHEAVE RAINFALL. FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND EXIT OF RAINFALL TUESDAYEVENING...DRY AND COOL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDEROF THE WEEK. OUTER PERIODS OF GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT DEEPER HEIGHTFALLS OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE U.S...SUGGESTIVE OFCOLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF FEBRUARY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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