DTWXRISK Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 And the EPS say hold your horses Scooby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Wait someone explain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Use the ens means at this range, not an OP run. There is no overwhelming support for the OP potential at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 I agree that yes, the Euro OP verbatim does has a few similarities to the other map posted. This alone though does not signal another MECS+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Wait someone explain. Shhhh....Ralph and DT are having a debate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 DT is woofing about a possible threat 10 days out? Say it ain't so. Then again, it really is the only thing to track from now till then so might as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Shhhh....Ralph and DT are having a debate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Nevermind, it was just noted in another thread the the Euro ens have a Day 12 coastal signal. I do not have access to the EPS at that range, thus why I didnt see it.....not that I would agree with a model showing a D+12 storm signal anyway. If this is still on the EPS in 5 days, I will bite. Until then, tuning up the snowblower during this nice stretch of weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Okay my bad continue haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Nevermind, it was just noted in another thread the the Euro ens have a Day 12 coastal signal. I do not have access to the EPS at that range, thus why I didnt see it.....not that I would agree with a model showing a D+12 storm signal anyway. If this is still on the EPS in 5 days, I will bite. Until then, tuning up the snowblower during this nice stretch of weather. If no one trusts a 12 day signal, why do they even publish them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Funny I saw the day 10 euro when it came out and had that deja vu feeling. Watch for the GFS to paint a nice winter Van Gogh storm before long in lala land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 The only thing is that gfs already had the storm at 10 days out last time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Nevermind, it was just noted in another thread the the Euro ens have a Day 12 coastal signal. I do not have access to the EPS at that range, thus why I didnt see it.....not that I would agree with a model showing a D+12 storm signal anyway. If this is still on the EPS in 5 days, I will bite. Until then, tuning up the snowblower during this nice stretch of weather. Outside of the models this conversation does sound familar!! Now bottom line with a raging stj days getting longer and southern lats getting warmer a dynamic storm is likely and hopefully an AO going negative -epo and +pna we could be in buisness even if the nao does not want to play....I do have the inklings of another BIG ONE coming prior to FEB 18th or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 The only thing is that gfs already had the storm at 10 days out last time. The look at day 10 would be the setup for a storm in the days following. Cruising the MA thread those guys are sharp they already found it on the 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Outside of the models this conversation does sound familar!! Now bottom line with a raging stj days getting longer and southern lats getting warmer a dynamic storm is likely and hopefully an AO going negative -epo and +pna we could be in buisness even if the nao does not want to play....I do have the inklings of another BIG ONE coming prior to FEB 18th or so.Thinking we get one more Archambault event before the season is over, much like the past Blizzard though probably not anywhere near that same level, but who knows. Patience will be key as this event will not be realized until the pattern has fully re-established itself (-ao/-nao/+pna) and then the subsequent breakdown/flip from -nao/-ao to a neutral/positive phase is when we will get the potential event. This is not to say we wont get anything prior to this, but the Archambault event will be our next *potential* big ticket item. More on the nao/ao forecast later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Going to be hard for any storm to live up to expectations after this last storm, however I am pretty confident in us getting another 8"+ event. The fact that we have a nino & are seeing PNA & maybe NAO prospects in the future, it will probably be hard for us NOT to get a winter storm. The 00z EPS looks very solid Day 10 again. However, like our blizzard, our best shot probably comes right before the pattern breaks down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Not necessarily related but there is an excellent discussion between PB GFI and Forky. A bit heated but still a must read... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47495-january-2016-discoobs-a-new-year-a-new-pattern/page-32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 I think the upcoming pattern actually has much more potential than a lot here seem to think....I can see probably the coldest stretch of weather this winter season and I am expecting our first below normal temp month of the winter season for February. I think we see at least 1 more 10" plus event probably a 6" plus event also in February. Followed by one or two elevation driven events in March and maybe even early April. If you like winter weather I think some good times lie ahead! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 I think the upcoming pattern actually has much more potential than a lot here seem to think....I can see probably the coldest stretch of weather this winter season and I am expecting our first below normal temp month of the winter season for February. I think we see at least 1 more 10" plus event probably a 6" plus event also in February. Followed by one or two elevation driven events in March and maybe even early April. If you like winter weather I think some good times lie ahead! Still think the wave developing on the post fropa around Friday needs to be monitored before getting too far ahead of ourselves in the super LR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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