stlirish Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Next week has cutter/inland runner written all over it. Cold air and high push off east out of the area, return flow around the departing high, nothing to anchor CAD, no -NAO/blocking, AO going positive, no 50/50 low, western ridge/PNA and EPO breaking down. It's either a snow to ice to rain or just ice to rain for the area IMO. Should be a good dose of rain and possibly heavy snow for the Appalachians and far interior, upstate New York finallyDepends on amplification and how the ridging works out west. Decent chance of it but still a lot in the works the next few days that could change the outcome. The feature headed north/east on Fri/Sat could enhance blocking if it slides more into the coast instead of OTS. That and the ridge west. Too early to tell. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Through the first week of February, New York City had a temperature anomaly of 10.7° above normal. Through 1 pm today, with a high temperature of 39° in Central Park, the anomaly was still 7.4° above normal. A brutal Arctic air mass will likely erase the entire warm anomaly by the end of February 15. However, the Arctic Oscillation is forecast to return to positive values by February 17 +/- 1 day and then remain positive for 5-10 days and perhaps longer. Based on the actual 2/1-9 readings and MOS forecasts for 2/10-17, it appears that New York City will still finish with a positive monthly anomaly. On average, the February 18-29 period has been 1.9° above normal when the AO was positive and 1.7° below normal when the AO was negative. Some of the extended guidance suggests that the average anomaly could wind up somewhat higher than the average AO+ one for that timeframe, even assuming a return to colder conditions toward the closing part of that period. Some monthly temperature anomaly scenarios based the 2/18-29 average anomaly are below: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 UKMET/EURO SAY GET YOUR ROW BOAT OUT . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Plenty of time to work on that one storm tracks from Atlanta to Allentown are not that common Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Plenty of time to work on that one storm tracks from Atlanta to Allentown are not that common I think that happened around January 10th 1977 between cold waves...it probably won't happen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Plenty of time to work on that one storm tracks from Atlanta to Allentown are not that common The coast's big storms typically occur when storms are depicted as OTS or all snow. Very rarely does a rainstorm trend towards a snowstorm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 The coast's big storms typically occur when storms are depicted as OTS or all snow. Very rarely does a rainstorm trend towards a snowstorm here. GFS has the storm well off the coast right now though. Obviously at this early point, we don't know which models have the right idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 The coast's big storms typically occur when storms are depicted as OTS or all snow. Very rarely does a rainstorm trend towards a snowstorm here. It happens more than you think. Maybe not rain storm to big coastal blizzard but front end thump to a flip to lighter rains at the end is not uncommon. We need some major changes for that though. High pressure area just retreats and any -NAO blocking even east based is nowhere to be found when it is needed. We want confluence to be much stronger than currently depicted even if it is retreating on the EURO/UKMET. Western ridge breaking down rapidly is not helping us either. The timing is just awful for us as depicted on the EURO/UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Impressive winds also if that 1048 mb high to the east and 985 mb low gradient works out.that high is in a terrible spot for snow but a good spot for wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Impressive winds also if that 1048 mb high to the east and 985 mb low pressure gradient works out. 60k gusts along the coast . and 60k plus on the E end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 My personal opinion I believe this is going to be rain maybe a little bit of snow in the beginning reason being none of the indices are in our favor a pos ao pos nao and a neg pna Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 +6 degree departure here for the month...should lose a lot of that over the next 5 days. Rooting for a sub 0 temp this weekend...no snowcover here though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 I think this weekend Saturday storm isn't a Done deal yet either, would appear 12z. Runs shifted west, minus one or 2 models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 10, 2016 Author Share Posted February 10, 2016 I think this weekend Saturday storm isn't a Done deal yet either, would appear 12z. Runs shifted west, minus one or 2 modelsIt looks good for eastern New England maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 I did a rough summary for the models, it does get Suffolk based on 24HR precipitation accumulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 12z navgem and gfs wanna develop a low south of long island for Saturday. Ecmwf says no way with the low pretty far south Cmc has a low as well, further south though just missing us. Similar to ecmwf. Jma has the low as well,further west this run though. 32km nam is further north, with snows just scrapping montauk. 12km nam further north as well, lower pressure, has snow in the area,leaving to much if anything though. 4km nam doesn't go far enough. Gefs has a low, further north, looks to affect mainly Suffolk county. Putting roughly 0.15-0.20 using the 24HR. Precipitation accumulations. The ensemble looks too be a bit north/west. At hour 72, almost looks like it tries to place a low by cape cod, but not 100% if that's what it means. Looking at the geps, for some reason unable to look at the last 2 00z runs, hasn't loaded for some reason. But I'm pretty sure its east a bit. Ensemble is east as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 The EPS continues to argue the UKMET is definitely out to lunch and the Euro Op is generally too slow or amped. I don't disagree with the idea this is not an all snow setup, but this is also way better than 1/17/94 or 1/3/99 as well. The high angle is better than those 2 events and we are not going to get as wrapped up a system IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 10, 2016 Author Share Posted February 10, 2016 The EPS continues to argue the UKMET is definitely out to lunch and the Euro Op is generally too slow or amped. I don't disagree with the idea this is not an all snow setup, but this is also way better than 1/17/94 or 1/3/99 as well. The high angle is better than those 2 events and we are not going to get as wrapped up a system IMO.I can't look right now, but Ed Vallee just tweeted that the EPS is warm next week and showing an Apps and Ohio Valley snowstorm: https://mobile.twitter.com/EdValleeWx/status/697517601879171072 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Light snow for the area tonight and especially saturday. Maybe we can get some acumulationa on saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 I can't look right now, but Ed Vallee just tweeted that the EPS is warm next week and showing an Apps and Ohio Valley snowstorm: https://mobile.twitter.com/EdValleeWx/status/697517601879171072 It was better as far as prospects of getting snow initially however, in the end this definitely goes to rain as shown now but I don't think its a mega torch all rain event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Eps now shows a low for the Saturday storm, or at least where a low likely will be forming.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 It was better as far as prospects of getting snow initially however, in the end this definitely goes to rain as shown now but I don't think its a mega torch all rain event. Dt just put out his thinking,with map. Looks like he puts west of NYC as having an ice storm potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Dt just put out his thinking,with map. Looks like he puts west of NYC as having an ice storm potential. Anytime you have strong WAA with a high to the North there is potential for ice but you'd really want more of a CAD signature to get significant ice. In this case, it looks like the high is retreating quickly and any ice potential would be limited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 We basically need a -AO and -NAO. I understand things can happen without those teleconnections in place, but they certainly help a lot. Until that happens, it will be hard to get too excited about the threats out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 10, 2016 Author Share Posted February 10, 2016 Anytime you have strong WAA with a high to the North there is potential for ice but you'd really want more of a CAD signature to get significant ice. In this case, it looks like the high is retreating quickly and any ice potential would be limited.This! The surface high retreats east into the Atlantic and we get boundary layer return flow out of the SE. Ice storm prospects in our area would be limited. Not saying there won't be freezing rain but the strong CAD signature you'd want will not be there and it gets eroded away. You also don't have any front side blocking (-NAO or 50/50 low) at all to cause any secondary low development along/off the coast, which would flip the low level winds around and drain cold air from the north longer, with the primary parent low going inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 I think the closer you are to NYC less the chance of ice or much wintry precipitation With next weeks setup interior sections of the northeast will fair much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Slightly better on the 18z GFS. Literally an eternity to go on this one. Expect major run to run changes. Some porn for OrangeCountySnowz to fill the void in the meantime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Slightly better on the 18z GFS. Literally an eternity to go on this one. Expect major run to run changes. Some porn for OrangeCountySnowz to fill the void in the meantime. I have to say I've never seen a snow map that showed a laser straight band of snow from Virginia to Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Slightly better on the 18z GFS. Literally an eternity to go on this one. Expect major run to run changes. Some porn for OrangeCountySnowz to fill the void in the meantime. That's UlsterCountySnowZ to you, only my mother and Pam still call me Orange Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 I have to say I've never seen a snow map that showed a laser straight band of snow from Virginia to Maine. Here is a high res version. Not quite as sexy looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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