snowman19 Posted February 5, 2016 Author Share Posted February 5, 2016 Next week is a convoluted mess. The week after next (2/15) is probably when you get a big storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Ok,since no ones asked yet, so does the February overall mean temperature, now with attic air coming, snow storms leading to colder nights... Will we probably end up above, normal, or below ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 That cold next week and weekend looks brutal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongIslandWx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Does anybody have the stats on the lowest minimum temperature for Central Park for El Nino winters? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Don't know if it's right, but the 06z GEFS says we should get used to western ridging this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Saturday is looking like the coldest day of the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Does anybody have the stats on the lowest minimum temperature for Central Park for El Nino winters? this table is from my snowfall and temperature post... winter average temperature Dec-Feb...lowest minimum...coldest 30 day period... 4" snowfalls... season......ave temp...coldest temp..30 days largest snowfalls... 1869-70..........34.5...........................................5.0"...9.0"...6.0"...6.0"... 1870-71..........30.9...........................................9.0"...6.0"... 1871-72..........29.3...........-1.......................................................... 1872-73..........28.3...........-4............................18.0"...6.0" 1873-74..........34.0..........................................6.0"...6.5"...6.5"...7.5" 1874-75..........27.6...........-6............................5.0"...10.0" 1875-76..........34.1............5............................11.0" 1876-77..........29.8............3............................13.0" 1877-78..........33.3............7.............................8.0" 1878-79..........29.2...........-4............................13.0" 1879-80..........38.5............7............................ 1880-81..........26.6...........-6............................4.0"...5.0"... 1881-82..........34.5...........-6............................8.0"...9.0" 1882-83..........28.7............1............................9.0"...8.0" 1883-84..........30.2...........-1............................7.5"...5.0" 1884-85..........28.6...........-3............................4.0"...6.5"... 1885-86..........30.0...........-4............................5.0"... 1886-87..........30.2............4............................8.1"... 1887-88..........28.7............0............................4.5"...21.0"... 1888-89..........32.7............3................................................. 1889-90..........37.9............7............................6.0"...6.0"...4.0".. 1890-91..........33.4............9............................7.0"...8.0"... 1891-92..........35.7............9............................6.0"...8.0"... 1892-93..........28.4............1............................4.0"...6.0"...5.0"...9.1"...6.0" 1893-94..........32.2............1............................6.5"...7.0"...4.0"...8.0"... 1894-95..........30.3...........-4...........................4.0"...4.0"...5.0"... 1895-96..........33.3...........-6...........................10.0"...4.0"...12.0"...4.5"... 1896-97..........32.7............6...........................5.0"...7.0"...6.0"...10.0"...8.5"... 1897-98..........36.5............8...........................5.0" 1898-99..........31.9...........-6...........................10.0"...6.0"...4.0"...6.5"...16.0"... 1899-00..........33.4............5...........................6.1"...5.0" 1900-01..........31.7............4...........................4.0" 1901-02..........32.0............8...........................10.0"...4.0"...6.5"... 1902-03..........32.0............4...........................6.3"...6.5"...4.0"...9.5"... 1903-04..........27.4...........-1...........................8.0"...4.7"... 1904-05..........28.1............4...........................4.0"...6.0"...7.0"...11.0"... 1905-06..........36.7............7...........................6.0"...6.5"...5.0"... 1906-07..........31.7............4...........................6.0"...5.0"...11.0"...6.0"...4.0"...6.0"...5.0"... 1907-08..........33.3............1...........................10.0"...8.0"...4.3"... 1908-09..........36.7............5...........................5.1"...4.0" 1909-10..........30.5............1...........................8.0"...10.0"...5.0"... 1910-11..........32.5..........11...........................4.0"...4.5" 1911-12..........30.6...........-3..........................7.0"... 1912-13..........37.2..........11...........................11.4" 1913-14..........31.9...........-5..........................9.7"...5.3"...14.5"... 1914-15..........34.0............3..........................4.4"...7.7"...10.2"... 1915-16..........32.5............2..........................6.0"...6.0"...5.3"...7.6"...4.0"...5.0"... 1916-17..........31.8............0..........................12.7"...4.3"...6.7"...6.5"... 1917-18..........25.7.........-13........19.0...........9.5"...5.9"... 1918-19..........36.6..........10..........................1.4" 1919-20..........27.4...........-2........22.4..........17.5"... 1920-21..........34.9............4.........................12.5"... 1921-22..........31.4...........-2.........................6.5"...5.8"... 1922-23..........30.0............7.........................4.0"...9.0"...7.8"...6.3"...6.3"...7.3"... 1923-24..........34.6............5.........................4.9"...8.5"... 1924-25..........33.4...........-2.........................11.5"...7.0"...5.1"... 1925-26..........32.0............5.........................10.4"...12.0"... 1926-27..........32.0...........-1.........................7.9"...5.1"... 1927-28..........34.6............7.........................5.3"... 1928-29..........34.7............8.........................9.2"... 1929-30..........35.4............7........28.8..........3.9"... 1930-31..........33.8..........10........31.9..........3.9"... 1931-32..........40.1..........15........35.8..........2.0"... 1932-33..........37.8..........11........33.9..........7.2"...10.0"... 1933-34..........29.2.........-15........19.6..........11.2"...9.8"...7.6"...9.3"...5.6"... 1934-35..........31.2...........-1........24.3..........13.0"...5.1"...4.5". 1935-36..........28.3...........-3........20.4..........4.1"...9.2"...4.7"... 1936-37..........37.9..........13........34.9..........5.7"... 1937-38..........34.3............6........31.4..........6.4"... 1938-39..........35.4............6........29.3..........8.8"...4.0"...8.8"...4.5"... 1939-40..........31.6............7........24.9..........9.0"... 1940-41..........33.0..........10........28.8..........5.2"...4.0"...18.1"... 1941-42..........32.9............5........29.0..........3.2"... 1942-43..........32.2...........-8........28.7..........4.1"...8.4"... 1943-44..........33.4..........10........28.8..........7.3"...4.8"...6.5"... 1944-45..........30.5............2........23.8..........6.7"...4.0"... 1945-46..........32.3............5........31.4..........8.3"...7.5"... 1946-47..........34.8............7........29.3..........4.0"...5.2"...10.7"... 1947-48..........30.0............0........21.5..........25.8"...5.1"...5.4"... 1948-49..........38.5..........10........36.3..........5.3"...16.0"...4.5"...4.6"...9.4"... 1949-50..........37.5............6........31.6..........3.8"... 1950-51..........35.9............9........33.0..........3.0"... 1951-52..........37.0............8........31.9..........5.8"...4.0"... 1952-53..........38.1..........12........35.5..........4.5"... 1953-54..........37.4............7........30.3..........7.8"... 1954-55..........34.0............0........28.6..........3.9"... 1955-56..........32.7............5........27.6..........6.5"...11.6"...4.2"... 1956-57..........35.6............0........27.8..........4.9"...6.4"... 1957-58..........33.3............3........28.1..........8.0"...4.5"...4.5"...7.9"...4.1"...11.8"... 1958-59..........30.9............7........28.5..........5.5"... 1959-60..........36.2............9........30.3..........13.7"...14.5"... 1960-61..........31.7...........-2........24.6.........15.2"...9.9"...17.4"...... 1961-62..........33.3............4........30.9..........6.2"... 1962-63..........30.0...........-2........25.9..........4.2"... 1963-64..........33.3............9........31.1..........6.6"...12.5"...6.8"...4.9"... 1964-65..........33.3............9........28.0..........6.3"...4.6"... 1965-66..........35.9............8........28.5..........6.8"...6.3"... 1966-67..........34.1............4........28.6..........7.1"...12.5"...9.8"... 1967-68..........31.3...........-1........25.1..........6.6" 1968-69..........32.9............9........30.4..........5.2"...15.3"... 1969-70..........30.5............3........24.0..........6.8"...4.0"... 1970-71..........32.1............4........24.2..........6.4"... 1971-72..........35.1............5........28.6..........5.7"...5.2"... 1972-73..........35.8............7........32.0..........1.8"... 1973-74..........35.5............6........32.3..........4.7"...6.0"... 1974-75..........37.5..........15........33.0..........7.8"... 1975-76..........34.4...........-1........27.1..........4.2"...4.0"... 1976-77..........28.5...........-2........21.9..........5.2"... 1977-78..........30.3..........10........26.2..........13.6"...17.7"...4.2"...5.0"... 1978-79..........32.7............0........26.0..........5.0"...12.7"... 1979-80..........35.4..........10........30.9..........4.6"... 1980-81..........32.7...........-1........22.2..........4.9"...8.6"... 1981-82..........32.6............0........25.2..........5.8"...9.6"... 1982-83..........37.9..........12........32.9..........17.6"... 1983-84..........35.2............4........26.1..........6.9"...5.1"...4.6"... 1984-85..........36.4...........-2........27.5..........4.8"...4.1"...4.3"...5.7"... 1985-86..........33.4............8........31.0..........4.5"...4.5"... 1986-87..........34.8............4........29.3..........8.1"...4.2" 1987-88..........34.7............5........28.3..........5.8"...5.2"... 1988-89..........35.9............5........32.4..........5.0"... 1989-90..........35.7............6........25.3..........4.7"... 1990-91..........39.2..........10........34.5..........7.2"...5.7"...8.9"... 1991-92..........37.2..........11........30.3..........6.2" 1992-93..........35.0............7........31.0..........4.3"...10.6"... 1993-94..........31.2...........-2........23.5..........4.0"...4.5"...9.0"...12.8"...5.0"... 1994-95..........37.1............6........31.5..........10.8"... 1995-96..........32.3............5........27.7..........7.7"...20.2"...7.5"...10.7"...4.6"...4.6"...4.1"... 1996-97..........37.8............4........31.7..........3.5"..... 1997-98..........39.6..........14........37.3..........5.5"... 1998-99..........38.7............9........31.3..........4.5"... 1999-00..........36.2............3........26.2..........5.5"... 2000-01..........33.5..........14........29.9.........12.0"...6.0"...5.7"... 2001-02..........41.5..........19........35.4..........3.0"... 2002-03..........31.2............7........25.9..........6.0"...5.0"...5.3"...19.8"...4.0"... 2003-04..........32.4............1........22.5..........14.0"...5.8"...5.7"...10.3"... 2004-05..........35.4............5........29.5..........13.8"...5.0"...6.0"...7.7"... 2005-06..........37.3..........14........33.5..........5.8"...26.9"... 2006-07..........36.5............8........25.8..........5.5"... 2007-08..........36.4..........10........35.7..........6.0"... 2008-09..........34.2............6........27.9..........4.5"...4.3"...8.3"... 2009-10..........33.8..........13........31.6..........10.9"...10.0"...5.0"...20.9"... 2010-11..........32.7............6.........28.1.........20.0"...9.1"...4.2"...19.0"... 2011-12..........40.5..........13.........37.0.........4.3"... 2012-13..........36.9..........11.........31.5.........4.7"...11.4"... 2013-14..........33.0............4.........28.5.........5.0"...6.4"...11.5"...8.0"...4.0"...9.5" 2014-15..........31.7............2.........23.9.........9.8"...5.3".....4.0"...4.8"...7.5"...4.5" 2015-16...........................11........34.4..........26.8" as of 1/24 1930-15..........33.5............4.........29.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Wow ggem and euro are frigid Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jets Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Perhaps overrunning event to follow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I'm happy we got the blizzard. And I'm therefore not complaining. But it seems like we have - or will in the upcoming days - JUST missed on a few more major events. I know that's how it is in this area, but still... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 People aren't going to be used to this with only 10 below normal days so far this winter. GZ_PN_192_0000.gif Wow, and I'll be home then to enjoy it in all its glory (I'll be back for a week starting next Saturday). 40F to me now is bone-chilling after living in the Deep South for a year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Wow, and I'll be home then to enjoy it in all its glory (I'll be back for a week starting next Saturday). 40F to me now is bone-chilling after living in the Deep South for a year. Yeah not a great time to come back, unless we get a blizzard of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Wow mid single digits next Saturday night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Again, don't know if it's right, but the GEFS is continuing to beat the drum of continued western ridging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
googmoog Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Again, don't know if it's right, but the GEFS is continuing to beat the drum of continued western ridging. 6zGEFS2-7.png DO most folks think this knows better than the relaxation on the EPS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 DO most folks think this knows better than the relaxation on the EPS? I don't know about most folks, but I would personally lean towards this outcome. Especially since the Para EPS from 12z yesterday seemed a bit more bullish on a reload in the western ridge than the regular EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
googmoog Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I don't know about most folks, but I would personally lean towards this outcome. Especially since the Para EPS from 12z yesterday seemed a bit more bullish on a reload in the western ridge than the regular EPS. that's good to hear. Seems like this year we can't get a cold shot without talk of a thaw in the 11-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Park up to 47 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I like the IVT on the UKMET it has been very good on the EC over the last 2 weeks. Keep in mind this is going to be a very cold mid level IVT Ratios and are probably 12 to 1 with the 850s - 10. The next 10 days will be a great period. There will be 2 possible snows on the front end followed by a late week/weekend brutal cold period. Finally a major day 9 or 10 snowstorm is possible to finish up the period Enjoy this period there's lots of potential. We will need a few breaks to have this fall into place but the possibility is there Thanks for your thoughts. What do you think of the 12Z EPS for Feb 20 and beyond? I heard the GEFS kept the -EPO intact thru the 23rd. I hope we get to hang on whatever snow pack we would have until early March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 FEB is starting to look like a mini FEB 2014 to me . The PV ( ITS COMING ) may center itself through the GLK/OHV/SE and after FEB 1-4 which will be AN ,I think we lock into a colder pattern for 15 days . So FEB 5 - 20 is BN . I am not sure of the monthly departure yet , I really cant see between the 20 - 29 although the PARA look fine through the 22nd . But the 15 day period I am looking at may be COLD/SNOWY . The core of the coldest against the norms will be W/SW of us . FEB continued , I wanted to expand on what I wrote 11 days ago As I wrote , I like the period between the 5 th - 20 th and here are the next 12 to 15 days . Which are around what will be the coldest 5 period of this winter . So beginning with the system tonight , this is another Long Island special . The majority from CLI on east could see 4 to 6 but I would not be shocked if 6 to 8 showed up way out on the E end . Next we have IVT moving along the baroclinic zone . This is not your typical kink is the isobar passing LP system to your E throwing back some skinny 10 mile wide Norlun back , this one is different . However it does not make the forecast any easier . The models are still deciding where the moisture`s best axis will be , but the potential exists for another round of snow anywhere from SNJ up into NYC . These mesoscale features are usually best sorted inside 24 hours . Lastly , I want to turn your attention to that D 10 " RAIN MAKER " on the euro around the 17th . We will see what this looks like as we get closer but when I see a departing PV and a rising AO which happens here around the 15th - 17th It likes to snow in many areas . Lets check back in a few days and see how this looks . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Well, I just looked at the 12z Para EPS. Huge ridge back in the west D15, trough moving right back into the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Euro has a snowstorm on Saturday. Clipper digs and goes up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Euro has a snowstorm on Saturday. Clipper digs and goes up the coast. Quick moving, but pretty big storm... 24 hour totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 That could be a nice storm if it comes out as amped as the Euro and EPS have. These Arctic clippers can deliver higher ratio fluff like we saw during the past few winters. It will be interesting to see if this is as strong as the Euro is showing. 00z Para Euro had a more strung out surface reflection than the op, but it was sharper with the H5 trough. Going to have to keep an eye on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Not to think too much past todays event, but this weekend looking interesting. AO going positive and a famous tv station stated that northeast needs to look out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I have a hard time believing the GFS with the AO lifting out without a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 GFS gives us a dusting everyday until Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Through yesterday, NYC's monthly anomaly was +8.0°. If the GFS is correct through the 15th, that entire warm anomaly would be wiped out. With some blocking in place, I suspect the possible event on the 16th +/- a day may hold more promise than the most recent one, at least as far as the NYC metro area and surrounding regions is concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 10, 2016 Author Share Posted February 10, 2016 Next week has cutter/inland runner written all over it. Cold air and high push off east out of the area, return flow around the departing high, nothing to anchor CAD, no -NAO/blocking, AO going positive, no 50/50 low, western ridge/PNA and EPO breaking down. It's either a snow to ice to rain or just ice to rain for the area IMO. Should be a good dose of rain and possibly heavy snow for the Appalachians and far interior, upstate New York finally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 I said in my opinion. Could it go OTS without a phase? Sure, but IMO the cutter or inland runner scenario is more likely. This is definately not a snowstorm setup for the reasons I posted. The cold air totally retreats out of the area next week Or no storm at all like on the GFS which just has some light snow Monday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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