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February 2016 Forecasts/Disco/Obs


snowman19

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Yeh the ensembles agree .

The Euro Ensembles agree with its OP and the GEM shows a direct hit here - and the GEFS is west of the GFS - now we have to see if we can get 2 runs in a row of similar solutions - its encouraging to see multiple models in agreement.....and more importantly the pattern and climatology support an important event here

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Euro is a snowstorm at 180

It's a pretty nice 4"-8"-type event. While nothing is assured, such a storm would occur at a time when the ensembles suggest that the AO will be negative. Even as February looks to wind up on the warm side of normal IMO, there should be snowfall opportunities. An AO- favors a risk of measurable snow (including appreciable or greater amounts) that are above the climatological norm in the East (especially the Middle Atlantic region) rather than the West. Today's Plains States snowfall is occurring with an AO+.

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wow. only had 13 here-down to piles and some shady areas...I'm surprised even that's hung on given the warmth of the past week or so.

You can really see the central queens snow maxima now. On my way in to the city I go from wantagh where we had around 24" through the maxima which was 34". Big difference between the 2.

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It would be great if the the Euro works out in the snowfall department for next week in NYC

to make this season even more of an extreme relative to previous climo. We continue

to see the warmth  to start February this week. The historic blizzard came during a 

brief cool down in a sea of warm pattern. Next week would introduce the possibility

of a snow occurring in a mild pattern. In fact, the EPS rebounds the temps back to

near to above normal after another transient cold and snow episode. So this season

could continue to be even more of a snowy outlier compared to other 40 degree

winters. This would really set the bar higher on what is possible with snow for

transient shots of cold in an otherwise mild temperature pattern.

 

15-16....42.7....27.2"...so far..normal temps or better for Feb would lock in 40 degree or higher finish

01-02....41.5......3.5"

11-12....40.5......7.4"

31-32....40.1".....5.3"

 

So this season will find a way to make both the warm winter and the snowy winter forecasts

correct to some extent. So everyone can claim at least a partial victory no matter their forecast.

 

 

We going 40/40 Chris .

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