ag3 Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Hearing UKMET and Euro bring back the anafrontal hit for friday? Ukmet does. Euro is a scraper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Looks like a scraper for the coastal sections. The EURO scrapes us , but is better than 0z Here is the UKIE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Looks like a scraper for the coastal sections. Ukmet is better then a scraper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Ukmet is better then a scraper. Yeh as is the JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 The EURO scrapes us , but is better than 0z Here is the UKIE what type of precip is this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 what type of precip is this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 When was the last time that the UKMET beat both the Euro and GFS? I think the UKIE is 2 The Euro was better than it was at 0z It was close at 12z . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 The 12z Euro had a trace just east of NYC to over an inch on the Twin Forks. Agree , but check out where it was at 0z . Came W . The UKIE/JMA make it interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Euro is interesting with the 2nd system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Euro is a snowstorm at 180 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Euro is a snowstorm at 180 its somewhat close to the GEM solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 its somewhat close to the GEM solution Yeh the GEM ensembles agree . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Yeh the ensembles agree . The Euro Ensembles agree with its OP and the GEM shows a direct hit here - and the GEFS is west of the GFS - now we have to see if we can get 2 runs in a row of similar solutions - its encouraging to see multiple models in agreement.....and more importantly the pattern and climatology support an important event here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Euro is a snowstorm at 180 It's a pretty nice 4"-8"-type event. While nothing is assured, such a storm would occur at a time when the ensembles suggest that the AO will be negative. Even as February looks to wind up on the warm side of normal IMO, there should be snowfall opportunities. An AO- favors a risk of measurable snow (including appreciable or greater amounts) that are above the climatological norm in the East (especially the Middle Atlantic region) rather than the West. Today's Plains States snowfall is occurring with an AO+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Models are bringing back the frontal wave for the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 18Z nam is ever drier tomorrow for NYC and area. Big area of 2 inches plus out over the ocean and into central PA- NYC .10-.25 at best verbatim...will be interesting to see if that pans out. - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 18Z nam is ever drier tomorrow for NYC and area. Big area of 2 inches plus out over the ocean and into central PA- NYC .10-.25 at best verbatim...will be interesting to see if that pans out. Most of the models have trended drier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 29" gone in 1 week .Ground is bare. 55F . Sunny . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 29" gone in 1 week .Ground is bare. 55F . Sunny . wow. only had 13 here-down to piles and some shady areas...I'm surprised even that's hung on given the warmth of the past week or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 wow. only had 13 here-down to piles and some shady areas...I'm surprised even that's hung on given the warmth of the past week or so. My ground has direct contact with the sun . Places in the shade in my area still have 10" + . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 18Z nam is ever drier tomorrow for NYC and area. Big area of 2 inches plus out over the ocean and into central PA- NYC .10-.25 at best verbatim...will be interesting to see if that pans out. - 18z RGEM is still wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 wow. only had 13 here-down to piles and some shady areas...I'm surprised even that's hung on given the warmth of the past week or so. It's hanging on because of the melt and nighttime re freezes aftwrwards. It becomes solid and dense. Ends up taking longer to melt... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 wow. only had 13 here-down to piles and some shady areas...I'm surprised even that's hung on given the warmth of the past week or so. You can really see the central queens snow maxima now. On my way in to the city I go from wantagh where we had around 24" through the maxima which was 34". Big difference between the 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Models are bringing back the frontal wave for the coast The 18Z GFS is west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 The 18Z GFS is west This is for the Friday system correct? Not Tuesday? a bit confusing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 i think it comes a bit more west with that pig ridge to our eastbump. getting more hits on the gfes now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 bump. getting more hits on the gfes now 0z Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Like I said last year, with this kind of 300mb jet structure over us...I'm in the camp that the models will adjust the precip field and continue to edge west. Best forcing over Jersey. Do not be surprised if the ECMWF adjusts as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Like I said last year, with this kind of 300mb jet structure over us...I'm in the camp that the models will adjust the precip field and continue to edge west. Best forcing over Jersey. Do not be surprised if the ECMWF adjusts as well. This is the 1st wave right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 It would be great if the the Euro works out in the snowfall department for next week in NYC to make this season even more of an extreme relative to previous climo. We continue to see the warmth to start February this week. The historic blizzard came during a brief cool down in a sea of warm pattern. Next week would introduce the possibility of a snow occurring in a mild pattern. In fact, the EPS rebounds the temps back to near to above normal after another transient cold and snow episode. So this season could continue to be even more of a snowy outlier compared to other 40 degree winters. This would really set the bar higher on what is possible with snow for transient shots of cold in an otherwise mild temperature pattern. 15-16....42.7....27.2"...so far..normal temps or better for Feb would lock in 40 degree or higher finish 01-02....41.5......3.5" 11-12....40.5......7.4" 31-32....40.1".....5.3" So this season will find a way to make both the warm winter and the snowy winter forecasts correct to some extent. So everyone can claim at least a partial victory no matter their forecast. We going 40/40 Chris . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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