Allsnow Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Next week seems like a 40 and rain type event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 1, 2016 Author Share Posted February 1, 2016 The smell of the rain and all the birds out makes it feel like a late April dayThe spring birds were all out singing this morning when I woke up at 6:30. It was honestly eerie. If you didn't know it was February and took a listen by the window, you would swear it was April. I can't ever remember witnessing that this early. I don't even recall 2012 being like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Seems like the birds been out all winter so far…i have had several morning with them chirping away. I also noticed buds on some of the trees with about 4-6 of snow left on the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Hopefully things trend for the better and we get more snow. After all, it's not as if the models are killing it with anything this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 +21 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 according to the 18Z GFS all this warm weather and snow melting will be a distant memory by the middle of next week: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Forecast high was 53. I was at 53.7. Good forecast for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Seems like the birds been out all winter so far…i have had several morning with them chirping away. I also noticed buds on some of the trees with about 4-6 of snow left on the ground Two redtail hawks - Central Park hawks, no less - were doing courtship rituals over the Upper East Side yesterday. It's VERY early for that - by 4-6 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 according to the 18Z GFS all this warm weather and snow melting will be a distant memory by the middle of next week: And according to the 0zs gfs the 18z run was on crack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 And according to the 0zs gfs the 18z run was on crack Still, we should probably till after Wednesday's storm passes before we stick a fork in this one. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Still, we should probably till after Wednesday's storm passes before we stick a fork in this one. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Sticking a fork? We don't even know what's going to happen to that storm. GGEM is OTS. Navgem doesn't have anything. A lot of solutions still on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Sticking a fork? We don't even know what's going to happen to that storm. GGEM is OTS. Navgem doesn't have anything. A lot of solutions still on the table. Exactly what I mean. Models won't have a handle on things till after Wednesday. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 If we want to cash in on a snowstorm next Monday look @ the 6z GFS. It was actually a few miles SE from being a 1-2 foot type storm. We have the 50/50 low, the Great Lakes low, and the low off the coast. The 6z run is probably BS because it is hard to get 3 lows that close to each other. I imagine the stronger the GL low the weaker the coastal will be as it will 'kick' & shear it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Not only that but it keeps the trough in the east almost the entire run after this week. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Still think if we get a storm early next week its rain with that set-up. Perhaps we get a shot at a storm as the cold retreats presidents weekend. The eps continues to bring the flow more zonal and mild after the 14th, not a great look for all these backloaded winter calls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Still think if we get a storm early next week its rain with that set-up. Perhaps we get a shot at a storm as the cold retreats presidents weekend. The eps continues to bring the flow more zonal and mild after the 14th, not a great look for all these backloaded winter calls. The EPS wasnt far off the from GFS for the 8th. The low is in a good spot off the coast. Temps might be a problem but still ways out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 A meteorologist in SNE. Maybe this can help us out for the storm next week? Well the teleconnections look the best they have in a while, and she's inside 7 days. Finally something very interesting to track...Raging +PNA, -EPO, -AOOnly fly in the ointment is the NAO, which looks slightly positive. But the -AO makes for a decent compromise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 The warm start with MJO 4-5 push should keep February mild enough for NYC to see only the 4th 40 degree winter or higher on record. This year will have the distinction of being the snowiest 40 degree winter by a wide margin. Just a few more inches for NYC and there could be the first 40-30" winter which was not though possible. So the 2000's continue to redefine what is climatologically possible here with all the extremes. 42.6...27.2"...15-16 so far 41.5...2.5".....01-02 40.5...7.4".....11-12 40.1...5.3".....31-32 Amazing. It's basically 01-02 and 11-12 (Temp wise) but with one big snowstorm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 6z GEFS for next week http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/dougsimo/GEFSIndiesUSPrecip06150.gif Not bad at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 2, 2016 Author Share Posted February 2, 2016 Still think if we get a storm early next week its rain with that set-up. Perhaps we get a shot at a storm as the cold retreats presidents weekend. The eps continues to bring the flow more zonal and mild after the 14th, not a great look for all these backloaded winter calls.I agree. Next week is for New England away from the immediate coast and far interior elevated IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 HM on Twitter In 2-3 weeks, if enough westerly flow redevelops in the Tropical atmosphere with -AAM reaching 60N, expect tanking NAO and enhanced STJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Couple pics from this morning. Probably my last day of full coverage here. Damn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 the ao is forecast to take a nice dip...it should continue to roller coaster this month...no help from the nao this time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 another +NAO winter. Outside of a short stretch in Jan, pretty much positive going back to October. Seems to be that we've entered a long term positive stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 That looks like a new AO volatility record from the fall into the winter. Just look at the range that we have seen between the highs and lows. ao.obs.gif other years with such a low AO were mostly negative all season...the AO is less important but still a big player as the winter grows old... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 NAM is very dry tomorrow for NYC south...only .25-.50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 It looks like today will again be warmer than the MOS. The 12z NAM MOS had a high of 45° for NYC and the 12z GFS MOS showed a high of 47°. At 11 am it was 46°. 50° is probably reachable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 NAM is very dry tomorrow for NYC south...only .25-.50 GFS and RGEM are still pretty wet. Around an inch for everyone, +/- 0.25". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 GEFS 24 Hour precip for next weeks event: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Hearing UKMET and Euro bring back the anafrontal hit for friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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