Superstorm93 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 The ECM Ens are just crazy during days 10-15 After this, ridge hooks over the top and the hammer really drops on the mean. Some of the individual members are really impressive. I'm really starting to like the mid to late Feb period for a snap back into a very volatile pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 The ECM Ens are just crazy during days 10-15 After this, ridge hooks over the top and the hammer really drops on the mean. Some of the individual members are really impressive. I'm really starting to like the mid to late Feb period for a snap back into a very volatile pattern. The 5 day EPS 850 anomalies are very cold .The low resolution control run between day 10 -15 is just insane. I expect the EPS to look colder as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 The 5 day EPS 850 anomalies are very cold .The low resolution control run between day 10 -15 is just insane. I expect the EPS to look colder as we get closer. What were 850 temps for our area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 The 5 day EPS 850 anomalies are very cold .The low resolution control run between day 10 -15 is just insane. I expect the EPS to look colder as we get closer. I've been talking to Cohen, and the SSWE is now in the medium range. This isn't your typical warming event...this has potential to translate blocking that could rival some of the most prolific episodes. If you hook that PNA ridge with a Davis straights block...I'm all in for February. (Which is exactly what the MEAN shows, never mind the EPS control) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 February has a certain look to it right now. The look where something big can happen directly after a period of mild temps that would push the winter season above normal. (Though that's not hard since some places saw 30" in a single storm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 IF, we can manage to get back into Phase 8 during late Feb, the potential for a memorable month exponentially increases Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 IF, we can manage to get back into Phase 8 during late Feb, the potential for a memorable month exponentially increases What phase is it in now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 It's between 4 and the COD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 GFS 06z shows a nice phasing Miller A with an Alberta clipper for beginning of next week. Not as cold as we want it but that's too far to be concerned about that. It really develops a very strong low and this would at least give some heavy snows to the interior... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Starting the day with a +22 minimum departure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 40's & 50's as the crow fly's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Question is - will it be there on the 12Z run ? GFS 06z shows a nice phasing Miller A with an Alberta clipper for beginning of next week. Not as cold as we want it but that's too far to be concerned about that. It really develops a very strong low and this would at least give some heavy snows to the interior... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 +11 for the first 8 days of Feb. Rest of month, 2/9---2/29 will need to be -4.2, just to get us back to normal. If we finish at +5.8 for Feb. this will be the warmest winter ever. 2/9---2/29 period will need to be just +3.8 with this kind of head start to get to that +5.8. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmex.pl?sta=KACY&sta=KEWR&sta=KNYC&sta=KJFK&sta=KLGA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 +11 for the first 8 days of Feb. Rest of month, 2/9---2/29 will need to be -4.2, just to get us back to normal. If we finish at +5.8 for Feb. this will be the warmest winter ever. 2/9---2/29 period will need to be just +3.8 with this kind of head start to get to that +5.8. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmex.pl?sta=KACY&sta=KEWR&sta=KNYC&sta=KJFK&sta=KLGA Very achievable! I think we'll be close but will prob finish +3 for feb Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Very achievable! I think we'll be close but will prob finish +3 for feb Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Easily. The warmth these first 8 days will be hard to overcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Question is - will it be there on the 12Z run ? It's there on 12z. Are any of the other models (Euro, CMC) showing this potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 And warm again pretty much for the entire subforum. Does have a little snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Numbers busting warmth-already to 59 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Numbers busting warmth-already to 59 here Islip's 63° reading tied the daily record set in 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 And warm again pretty much for the entire subforum. Does have a little snow. 12z GFS does give the NYC area a few inches of snow before the changeover, and maybe a little snow on the back end. A week out so at least it's something to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 we're lucky the blizzard came north because this month is looking boring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 The Euro is between 0.75" and 1.50" of rain through Wednesday night. Between the moderate to heavy rainfall as well as the unseasonably warm temps this week, that should eliminate what's left of the snowpack in most places. River flooding is certainly a possibility, especially along the Raritan River which is already forecasted to reach flood stage in spots by Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 we're lucky the blizzard came north because this month is looking boring But we did get the blizzard, and that's enough to give me a warm and fuzzy feeling about this winter no matter what else happens the rest of the way. And if "boring" means 50s and 60s in the dead middle of winter, then I'm fine with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 But we did get the blizzard, and that's enough to give me a warm and fuzzy feeling about this winter no matter what else happens the rest of the way. And if "boring" means 50s and 60s in the dead middle of winter, then I'm fine with it. Yeah that storm sure saved the day. Pack is literally crying a slow death right now. After this cutter it's all gone except the biggest piles. I still think we have one more shot at least of a good storm. Then on to spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 we're lucky the blizzard came north because this month is looking boring This doesn't look to boring: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Near Record to Record Highs for Today: Boston: 65° (Record: 66°, 1989) Bridgeport: 60° (Record: 62°, 2012) Islip: 64° (Old Record: 63°, 2012) Providence: 66° (Old Record: 64°, 1989) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 12Z run of the Euro has a lot of potential : how it all plays out here is questionable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 The smell of the rain and all the birds out makes it feel like a late April day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Near Record to Record Highs for Today: Boston: 65° (Record: 66°, 1989) Bridgeport: 60° (Record: 62°, 2012) Islip: 64° (Old Record: 63°, 2012) Providence: 66° (Old Record: 64°, 1989) those #'s were well above guidance today as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 those #'s were well above guidance today as well They were. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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