winterwarlock Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 This is one time I am in full agreement with you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Because, as far as I've seen, analog-based seasonal forecasts are not particularly accurate (or worse). I've yet to see any published data showing anyone doing much better than climatology (unlike, for example, Dr. Gray's tropical season forecasts, which are somewhat better than climo). I'm happy to be proven wrong on that - is there anyone out there who has predicted national or even regional seasonal forecasts for winter which are significantly better than climatology over at least a 10 year period (anyone can be right for a 2-3 year stretch, just by plain luck)? You are correct. all those pretty graphs ect are nothing but a waste of time year after year . Sure one year they may get it right but that's blind luck . I have been against the outlooks for years and nobody has proven me wrong yet . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Dry run of the GFS with that big ridge over us, only .25-.50 of rain over the next 10 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Dry run of the GFS with that big ridge over us, only .25-.50 of rain over the next 10 days GFS hasn't run at 12z yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 time to lock this thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Because, as far as I've seen, analog-based seasonal forecasts are not particularly accurate (or worse). I've yet to see any published data showing anyone doing much better than climatology (unlike, for example, Dr. Gray's tropical season forecasts, which are somewhat better than climo). I'm happy to be proven wrong on that - is there anyone out there who has predicted national or even regional seasonal forecasts for winter which are significantly better than climatology over at least a 10 year period (anyone can be right for a 2-3 year stretch, just by plain luck)? There are forecasters who have done better than the 50/50 coin flip. I started winter outlooks 10 years ago, and summer outlooks in 2008. You can search through my website and decide for yourself if you'd like. But my assessment is approximately 75% have been hits (18 outlooks total; 7/8 summer hits, and 7/10 winter hits). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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