JerseyWx Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Most years we do hit 70 in March. The last 3 were anomolies True, especially last March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 I think we do see an active severe season weather as well. Hurricane season too It's been a while since we've seen both but maybe this could be our year. The Atlantic is toasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 It's been a while since we've seen both but maybe this could be our year. The Atlantic is toasty. yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Days 8 through 15 look "torchy" More so than we've already seen? I've lost count of how many times I've hit 60 or higher in DJF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 I'm down in DC this weekend. Just spectacular down here. Awesome pic Thanks Pazzo. Enjoy your trip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 March will very likely continue the stretch of warmer than normal months. The early month blocking isn't strong enough to offset the shortening wave lengths. Should the blocking break down for the second half of the month, a very warm ending isn't out of the question. it can't get any warmer than the end of March 1998(or could it)...80 degrees or higher the last five days of March 98...this came after 2-5" of snow on the 22nd...I agree the blocking needs to be stronger or else... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Low of 50 in the park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Just an amazing 3 weeks of winter this year from 1/23-2/14 where NYC was able to score its heaviest one day snowfall total and the first below zero reading since 1994. Other spots had very close to 40 inches of snow for this short 3 week period. We have the impressive block over the North Pole to thank for overpowering the influence of the raging +NAO pattern. This will go down as the best stretch of winter ever for such a warm DJF averaging 40 degrees of higher. This is quite a feat considering that NYC went from the 78-79 to 92-93 winters without reaching 30-40 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Just an amazing 3 weeks of winter this year from 1/23-2/14 where NYC was able to score its heaviest one day snowfall total and the first below zero reading since 1994. Other spots had very close to 40 inches of snow for this short 3 week period. We have the impressive block over the North Pole to thank for overpowering the influence of the raging +NAO pattern. This will go down as the best stretch of winter ever for such a warm DJF averaging 40 degrees of higher. This is quite a feat considering that NYC went from the 78-79 to 92-93 winters without reaching 30-40 inches of snow. 500.gif A 3 week winter when it comes to snowfall. (assuming the late week threat falls apart) But what a 3 week stretch it was! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 I have KNYC at 40.8 degrees for met winter, without today included, and today should easily be +15 or greater departure. I believe we are in record territory? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Why did the back loaded winter fail? What happen to the blocking and -nao everyone was predicting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 I have KNYC at 40.8 degrees for met winter, without today included, and today should easily be +15 or greater departure. I believe we are in record territory? We will definitely finish number 2. We won't quite reach the 41.5 required to tie number one. I have them at 40.9 going into today but either way they're not getting to 41.5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Why did the back loaded winter fail? What happen to the blocking and -nao everyone was predicting? The vortex also remained over the pole and was not disrupted like some forecasts had. We've been in a longer term +NAO (since March 2013) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Why did the back loaded winter fail? What happen to the blocking and -nao everyone was predicting?Did you end winter already? Tell me this winter sucks Saturday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Did you end winter already? Tell me this winter sucks Saturday morning while we may get something Friday, winter has been DOA since 2/15 or so. Even after Friday we torch next week yet again. No sustained cold anywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Today saw the temperature reach 60° or above for the 16th time during the current meteorological winter. The old record was 12 days, which was set in winter 1990-91 and tied in winter 2001-02. Today was also the 40th day on which the temperature reached 50° or above. The old record was 36 days, which was established during winter 2001-02. The mean temperature for winter 2015-16 will very likely finish at approximately 41.0°, making it the second warmest on record for New York City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Why did the back loaded winter fail? What happen to the blocking and -nao everyone was predicting? It depends on your location. Some spots like JFK were just as back-loaded in the snowfall department as last winter was. They just needed much less cold and a shorter time period to get the job done. JFK post January 15th snowfall........14-15.....41.4".......15-16....39.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Today saw the temperature reach 60° or above for the 16th time during the current meteorological winter. The old record was 12 days, which was set in winter 1990-91 and tied in winter 2001-02. Today was also the 40th day on which the temperature reached 50° or above. The old record was 36 days, which was established during winter 2001-02. The mean temperature for winter 2015-16 will very likely finish at approximately 41.0°, making it the second warmest on record for New York City. Incredible, I will mainly remember this winter for the warmth that was brought with it, assuming we even cash in on Friday, this was a very short winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Incredible, I will mainly remember this winter for the warmth that was brought with it, assuming we even cash in on Friday, this was a very short winter. Hopefully, we can cash in with a measurable snowfall on Friday given that the ensembles point to the arrival of very warm conditions the following week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Hopefully, we can cash in with a measurable snowfall on Friday given that the ensembles point to the arrival of very warm conditions the following week. something like that happened in 1990...there was a little snow on the 6th, then 85 degrees on the 13th... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 it can't get any warmer than the end of March 1998(or could it)...80 degrees or higher the last five days of March 98...this came after 2-5" of snow on the 22nd...I agree the blocking needs to be stronger or else... I wouldn't be surprised if we hit 80 this March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 High of 61 in the park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 And another horrible month in a depressing winter comes to an end.Temperatures in February were 2.5 to 3 degrees above normal area wide. Thank God for the Valentines Day cold snap or this would have been a total torch of a month.2.4 above in CPK, 3.1 at LGA, 2.7 at JFk and 2.5 at NewarkMET winter ends at 41.1, which becomes only the tenth winter ever above 38, the fourth winter ever above 40, and the second ever above 41. We missed setting the all time record of 41.5 in 2001/02 (BTW the worst winter ever), by 0.5 degree.What concerns me is 3 of the 4 that ended above 40 have all happened since 2001/02.Winters with averages above 38 were extremely rare until the 1990's, only 5 happened in the first 120 years of records, but these 40+ temp winters are insane and unnatural. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Looks like Met Winter finishes with a temp of 41.0? That is right below the all time record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Looks like Met Winter finishes with a temp of 41.0? That is right below the all time record. I calculated 41.1 but either way we end up number 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Unprecedented close to triple 40 winter at JFK. Average JFM temperature....40.8...Number of days reaching 50 degrees or more...43...snowfall...39.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Unprecedented close to triple 40 winter at JFK. Average JFM temperature....40.8...Number of days reaching 50 degrees or more...43...snowfall...39.5" Pretty much like a record setting snowfall winter in Norfolk Virginia. What a joke this winter was, or better yet wasn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Pretty much like a record setting snowfall winter in Norfolk Virginia. What a joke this winter was, or better yet wasn't. turned out to be a cruel joke given the hype of a great back loaded winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Pretty much like a record setting snowfall winter in Norfolk Virginia. What a joke this winter was, or better yet wasn't. That was the last time that i am aware of that an East Coast location went 40/40. turned out to be a cruel joke given the hype of a great back loaded winter I still like the blizzard for my location better than any winter storm since the 10-11 winter. The winter turned out to be just about as back loaded for JFK as last winter was for snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Why did the back loaded winter fail? What happen to the blocking and -nao everyone was predicting? Because, as far as I've seen, analog-based seasonal forecasts are not particularly accurate (or worse). I've yet to see any published data showing anyone doing much better than climatology (unlike, for example, Dr. Gray's tropical season forecasts, which are somewhat better than climo). I'm happy to be proven wrong on that - is there anyone out there who has predicted national or even regional seasonal forecasts for winter which are significantly better than climatology over at least a 10 year period (anyone can be right for a 2-3 year stretch, just by plain luck)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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