ForestHillWx Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Not to tread into a debate, but how accurate are the Arctic readings of 1932? I'm concerned with the amount of data in filing currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Not to tread into a debate, but how accurate are the Arctic readings of 1932? I'm concerned with the amount of data in filing currently. Even if one sets aside the Arctic regions and just focuses on the populated areas where there was a density of instruments, the difference between 1931-32 and 2015-16 is large. FWIW, Arctic sea ice extent has now set daily record low figures for 16 consecutive days. Moreover, if one constructed an artificial January 1-February 22 period comprised of just the pre-2016 record low extent figures, average sea ice extent for 2016 would be running below the average for that artificial period. It's pretty safe to say that the Arctic is much warmer this winter than it was during 1931-32, even if there is some degree of uncertainty in the magnitude of the difference. Of course, all of this probably belongs in the climate subforum, so I'll limit myself to the above points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 What really stands out to me between the two years is the temp difference in the Sahara. Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 might torch sooner than that if the WAR has its way. Even the past 3 days were well above guidance for highs Might as well if it's not gonna snow. 35 and rain is the worst weather imaginable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 We beat both the snowfall and low temperature records by a wide margin for warmest winters in NYC over 40 degrees. DJF temp....year....snowfall....winter minimum temperature 41.5..........01-02.......3.5"..............19 40.5..........11-12.......7.4"..............13 40.4..........15-16......31.2".............-1....through February 22nd 40.1..........31-32.......5.3".............18 Haha, wow. "Which one of these is not like the others?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Select February and December-February Temperature Scenarios for NYC: Baseline: February: +1.9°; December-February Average Temperature: 40.9° (2nd warmest winter) Cold: February: +1.4°; December-February Average Temperature: 40.8° (2nd warmest winter) Warm: February: +2.4°; December-February Average Temperature: 41.1° (2nd warmest winter) Baseline = Actual 2/1-24 data, 2/25 high of 60°, and GFS MOS for February's remaining days Cold Scenario: Actual data used in the baseline scenario + MOS - 3° for February's remaining days Warm Scenario: Actual data used in the baseline scenario + MOS + 3° for February's remaining days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Bummer we won't get to #1. Coast to coast warmth marked Dec and Feb outside of the one big cold snap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 JFK is as close as you can get to a 40-40 winter. If you put that seasonal forecast out in October or November there would have been a million posts of disbelief on here. Could have had a thread with the most replies of all-time. Through February 25th......39.5 inches of snow.....40.6 average temperature. I think as Don pointed out, the only other East Coast occurrence was Norfolk, VA in DJF 79-80. Seasonal snowfall.....41.9 inches.....average temperature 40.2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 JFK is as close as you can get to a 40-40 winter. If you put that seasonal forecast out in October or November there would have been a million posts of disbelief on here. Could have had a thread with the most replies of all-time. Through February 25th......39.5 inches of snow.....40.6 average temperature. I think as Don pointed out, the only other East Coast occurrence was Norfolk, VA in DJF 79-80. Seasonal snowfall.....41.9 inches.....average temperature 40.2. Amazing-hope they can get 1/2 inch to seal the deal, but in this pattern who knows, they may be done. Also, 42 inches of snow in Norfolk is like getting 150 inches here-getting 10 inches there is a difficult feat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Sunday and Monday will be warmer then modeled IMO. Forecasts are for 57-60 degrees. I think both days can get to near 65 degrees. That would equate to +22 or greater daily departures. What would those temps leave us with to end February? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 The average temperature on Febraury 28th in NYC is 38 degrees and on February 29th it is 33 degrees then back to 38 on March 1. Obviously just an oddity of 7 or 8 days making up a 30 year average vs all days but still a little odd there's such a deviation. This year looks to be way above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 The average temperature on Febraury 28th in NYC is 38 degrees and on February 29th it is 33 degrees then back to 38 on March 1. Obviously just an oddity of 7 or 8 days making up a 30 year average vs all days but still a little odd there's such a deviation. This year looks to be way above normal. I wonder if a similar dynamic is in play back to the 1860's at Belvidere...that would probably encompass just under 40 February 29ths... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Amazing-hope they can get 1/2 inch to seal the deal, but in this pattern who knows, they may be done. Also, 42 inches of snow in Norfolk is like getting 150 inches here-getting 10 inches there is a difficult feat. Not really...the lower a station's average annual snowfall, the higher anomalous deviations percentage wise become possible. In other words, it is far easier for Norfolk to get 24 inches of snow in a single winter (400% of normal) than it is for Albany, NY to get 400% of their average annual snowfall in a single winter...which would be about 240 inches given their 60 inch average...they have never even been close to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Today will be the 39th day of reaching 50 degrees or greater this winter in NYC. Another remarkable stat is that this passes the 36 days of 50 or higher in the 2001-2002 winter. But NYC has 31.2 inches of snowfall this winter vs only 3.5 in 2001-2002. NYC was also able to reach -1 this winter while 2001-2002 only got down to 19 degrees. Another set of weather extremes to add to the long list during the 2000's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 The average temperature on Febraury 28th in NYC is 38 degrees and on February 29th it is 33 degrees then back to 38 on March 1. Obviously just an oddity of 7 or 8 days making up a 30 year average vs all days but still a little odd there's such a deviation. This year looks to be way above normal. The more sound approach would be to take the averages between 2/28 and 3/1 rather than rely on a clearly unrepresentative sample. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Today will be the 39th day of reaching 50 degrees or greater this winter in NYC. Another remarkable stat is that this passes the 36 days of 50 or higher in the 2001-2002 winter. But NYC has 31.2 inches of snowfall this winter vs only 3.5 in 2001-2002. NYC was also able to reach -1 this winter while 2001-2002 only got down to 19 degrees. Another set of weather extremes to add to the long list during the 2000's. Just an all out inferno going back to last August. February will go out with a bang tomorrow with many seeing 60+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Just an all out inferno going back to last August. February will go out with a bang tomorrow with many seeing 60+ The flip to warm after last JFM was pretty remarkable. This winter has to be the best snow and below zero production in a sea of warm pattern ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 60 in the park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Just an all out inferno going back to last August. February will go out with a bang tomorrow with many seeing 60+ March will very likely continue the stretch of warmer than normal months. The early month blocking isn't strong enough to offset the shortening wave lengths. Should the blocking break down for the second half of the month, a very warm ending isn't out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Incredible warmth signal on EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Incredible warmth signal on EPS. Days 8 through 15 look "torchy" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 60 in the park. And a pretty nice sea breeze developed along the Long Island Sound allowing for the first sailing this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 And a pretty nice sea breeze developed along the Long Island Sound allowing for the first sailing this year. I'm down in DC this weekend. Just spectacular down here. Awesome pic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Incredible warmth signal on EPS. Like the '27 Series...this winter was over before it began... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Guess we'll be seeing 70s this March. I feel an absolute monster hot summer is coming even more so than 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Guess we'll be seeing 70s this March. I feel an absolute monster hot summer is coming even more so than 2010. I can see that expecially if we flip quickly to la niña. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Guess we'll be seeing 70s this March. I feel an absolute monster hot summer is coming even more so than 2010. Most years we do hit 70 in March. The last 3 were anomolies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Temperatures that warm, we will likely be seeing a lot of fog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Guess we'll be seeing 70s this March. I feel an absolute monster hot summer is coming even more so than 2010. I think we do see an active severe season weather as well. Hurricane season too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 What has been weather been like ,mainly summers,for east coast after El ninos years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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