tdp146 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 61. Outside sweeping the porch and it's almost too warm for a jacket. It was zero last week, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 61. Outside sweeping the porch and it's almost too warm for a jacket. It was zero last week, right? 2016 gonna 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 61° with a brisk sea breeze this afternoon (a year ago on this date, the temperature fell to 2°). After today's 61° high temperature, NYC's February anomaly is +0.2°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxallannj Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 My temperature here in Clifton NJ at 5 p.m is 61 degrees, last week at the same time it was only 9. 52 degrees warmer today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 My high was 52 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 I'd take these setups any day of the week... GEFS GEPS EPS Looks like strong PNA/EPO rigding and even some Greenland blocking. Better yet, lower heights seem to be forming over Nova Scotia. I don't think we're done yet at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 I'd take these setups any day of the week... GEPS EPS Looks like strong PNA/EPO rigding and even some Greenland blocking. Better yet, lower heights seem to be forming over Nova Scotia. I don't think we're done yet at all. there is only going to be a limited window of opportunity in that setup - march does not favor any prolonged setups for snow in this area according to climatology Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 there is only going to be a limited window of opportunity in that setup - march does not favor any prolonged setups for snow in this area according to climatology You can throw climatology out of the window if the pattern is right. Look at last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 You can throw climatology out of the window if the pattern is right. Look at last winter. why don't you look at this chart of NYC snowfall in March - how many years are there multiple significant snowstorms listed ? http://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 why don't you look at this chart of NYC snowfall in March - how many years are there multiple significant snowstorms listed ? http://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf Still doubting my coastal hugger? Meteorology not modelogy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 why don't you look at this chart of NYC snowfall in March - how many years are there multiple significant snowstorms listed ? http://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf Yea its not common but it can happen if the pattern is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Still doubting my coastal hugger? Meteorology not modelogy yeah there is going to be no coastal hugger next week - its going to be an inland runner - whats your point ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 yeah there is going to be no coastal hugger next week - its going to be an inland runner - whats your point ? You said offshore I said follow the trend and watch the WAR flex its muscles and guess what it flexing hard. This is why I go be meteorology not modelogy especially beyond 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 You said offshore I said follow the trend and watch the WAR flex its muscles and guess what it flexing hard. This is why I go be meteorology not modelogy especially beyond 48 hours Which thread did I say offshore ? I reported in the vendor thread that LC was predicting just last night an offshore track - I didn't say I agreed with him - I am still waiting for his newsletter tonight to see what he is predicting now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Which thread did I say offshore ? I reported in the vendor thread that LC was predicting just last night an offshore track - I didn't say I agreed with him - I am still waiting for his newsletter tonight to see what he is predicting now I'm not one for drama at all. But you were harping on an offshore track. I don't feel like going through the whole thread. It was a few days ago when the models showed that and you made fun of my "hunch" post that's all. Regardless this is going to suck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Next 8 days including today figure to be about +4 to +5 but the last day of the month looks pretty cold, so I think we end month with a surplus of about 30 to 40 degrees, including the +4 we have as of today (0.20*20). Final idea for the month: say +1.0 to +1.3. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmex.pl?sta=KACY&sta=KEWR&sta=KNYC&sta=KJFK&sta=KLGA In addition, the period from 2/27---3/07 looks below normal, and offers a short window to get some white stuff near Mar. 2-3, before it starts looking and feeling like Dec. as most of Canada goes 3-4 SD units above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Next 8 days including today figure to be about +4 to +5 but the last day of the month looks pretty cold, so I think we end month with a surplus of about 30 to 40 degrees, including the +4 we have as of today (0.20*20). Final idea for the month: say +1.0 to +1.3. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmex.pl?sta=KACY&sta=KEWR&sta=KNYC&sta=KJFK&sta=KLGA In addition, the period from 2/27---3/07 looks below normal, and offers a short window to get some white stuff near Mar. 2-3, before it starts looking and feeling like Dec. as most of Canada goes 3-4 SD units above normal. So you were plus 6 in Jan and we ended up plus 1.9. You were plus 4 in Feb and we will end up close to plus 1. So when you say Dec like are you calling for March to finish plus 10 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 A frightening observation during this afternoon's 50°+ readings: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 With today's 50° high temperature through 1 pm, February is averaging 1.1° above normal. Today is the 8th day on which the temperature has reached 50° or above in February. By month's end, there should be 9-11 such days. That is an impressive figure, even as it would fall short of the record of 15 such days in 1990. The month is now very likely to finish with a warm anomaly. Assuming the MOS is reasonably accurate, the month would finish with an anomaly near +1.5°. Under a cold scenario (MOS - 3°), February would still finish with an anomaly of +0.7°. Under a warm scenario (MOS + 3°), February would finish with an anomaly of +2.2°. As a result, the December-February period will likely finish with a seasonal mean temperature ranging from 40.4° to 41.1° (near 40.8° if the MOS is reasonably accurate). Those numbers mean that NYC will very likely finish with either the 3rd or 2nd warmest winter on record. The three warmest winters on record are as follows: 1. 2001-02: Mean temperature: 41.5°; Seasonal snowfall: 3.5" 2. 2011-12: Mean temperature: 40.5°; Seasonal snowfall: 7.4" 3. 1931-32: Mean temperature: 40.1°; Seasonal snowfall: 5.3" So far, Winter 2015-16 has seen 31.2" snow at Central Park. That figure could increase especially during the first 10 days of March given the forecast pattern. There is a small chance that NYC could approach or reach 40" if a big storm occurs during that timeframe. Finally, in terms of monthly forecasts, the CFSv2 with its warmer than normal idea (about 1.4° above normal for NYC) will likely fare better than the other guidance, which was too cold, should the MOS ideas come reasonably close to verifying. The CFSv2 would have been too cool nationwide, as it showed a large area of cool anomalies across the CONUS. It's an emerging theme, but it appears that the CFSv2 may wind up having performed better than the other guidance for the last 3 months when its day-before-month guidance was considered. At the longer-range, it remains much weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 63, 56, 52 the past 3 days IMBY each day overperformed...headed for yet another above normal month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 A frightening observation during this afternoon's 50°+ readings: http://s14.postimg.org/67843gllt/ NYBG02212016.jpg Why would you say that. Meteorological winter ends in just a week. Time to pack the snowboots away and bring out the tshirts and bats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Why would you say that. Meteorological winter ends in just a week. Time to pack the snowboots away and bring out the tshirts and bats Pollen? Actually it was meant more tongue-in-cheek. I'll enjoy the weather whatever it brings. I think we'll get at least some winter opportunities during the first 10 days of March but the month might well end up warmer than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Why would you say that. Meteorological winter ends in just a week. Time to pack the snowboots away and bring out the tshirts and batsNot yet.It feels like we've hardly had a winter given the warm temps. Need one last hurrah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 With today's 50° high temperature through 1 pm, February is averaging 1.1° above normal. Today is the 8th day on which the temperature has reached 50° or above in February. By month's end, there should be 9-11 such days. That is an impressive figure, even as it would fall short of the record of 15 such days in 1990. The month is now very likely to finish with a warm anomaly. Assuming the MOS is reasonably accurate, the month would finish with an anomaly near +1.5°. Under a cold scenario (MOS - 3°), February would still finish with an anomaly of +0.7°. Under a warm scenario (MOS + 3°), February would finish with an anomaly of +2.2°. As a result, the December-February period will likely finish with a seasonal mean temperature ranging from 40.4° to 41.1° (near 40.8° if the MOS is reasonably accurate). Those numbers mean that NYC will very likely finish with either the 3rd or 2nd warmest winter on record. The three warmest winters on record are as follows: 1. 2001-02: Mean temperature: 41.5°; Seasonal snowfall: 3.5" 2. 2011-12: Mean temperature: 40.5°; Seasonal snowfall: 7.4" 3. 1931-32: Mean temperature: 40.1°; Seasonal snowfall: 5.3" So far, Winter 2015-16 has seen 31.2" snow at Central Park. That figure could increase especially during the first 10 days of March given the forecast pattern. There is a small chance that NYC could approach or reach 40" if a big storm occurs during that timeframe. Finally, in terms of monthly forecasts, the CFSv2 with its warmer than normal idea (about 1.4° above normal for NYC) will likely fare better than the other guidance, which was too cold, should the MOS ideas come reasonably close to verifying. The CFSv2 would have been too cool nationwide, as it showed a large area of cool anomalies across the CONUS. It's an emerging theme, but it appears that the CFSv2 may wind up having performed better than the other guidance for the last 3 months when its day-before-month guidance was considered. At the longer-range, it remains much weaker. Don here is it`s FEB monthly forecast the week before the start of the month . I usually agree with you but look at where it was week 4 in Jan for Feb , it had to get its nose up against the month to see plus 1.5 A week out it was + 4c Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 The Euro SEASONAL forecast was N to + 1C for Jan - March from late Dec . So far Jan 1 - thru today KNYC is around + 1.5 F I think that will verify closer than what the CFS had from 2 and 3 months away . Considering these are climate models they should not have to be at the doorstep to correct like that , the CFS was awful from a distance compared to the EURO Again the CFS in DEC for JAN A week out it had + 3 C We finished + 1.9 F A little better than the next month , but the Euro was better IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 The CFS seasonal did a better job than the monthlies . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Don here is it`s FEB monthly forecast the week before the start of the month . I usually agree with you but look at where it was week 4 in Jan for Feb , it had to get its nose up against the month to see plus 1.5 A week out it was + 4c We actually agree. I wrote, "...the CFSv2 may wind up having performed better than the other guidance for the last 3 months when its day-before-month guidance was considered. At the longer-range, it remains much weaker." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 We actually agree. I wrote, "...the CFSv2 may wind up having performed better than the other guidance for the last 3 months when its day-before-month guidance was considered. At the longer-range, it remains much weaker."[/size]Thanks Don .It's seasonal 2M did well. The Euro beat it at 500 for Jan and Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Thanks Don . It's seasonal 2M did well. The Euro beat it at 500 for Jan and Feb Absolutely. The Euro did really well with the El Niño event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 An historic NYC winter for extreme contrasts. NYC is currently at 40.4 for DJF through February 22nd. This sets up a contrast that has never been seen before in NYC. No other 40 degree winter can approach the snowfall this winter or the below zero low temperature. Every season in the 2000's is an adventure as to which new extremes will occur. DJF temp....year....snowfall....winter minimum temperature 41.5..........01-02.......3.5"..............19 40.5..........11-12.......7.4"..............13 40.4..........15-16......31.2".............-1....through February 22nd 40.1..........31-32.......5.3".............18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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