wthrmn654 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 These are pretty in depth article about the jma and the others. https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=http://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCFW/JMAworkshop/5-1.NWP_TC%2520Track_MNakagawa.pdf&ved=0ahUKEwiY0Y_y0ITLAhUBZT4KHcw8DM4QFgggMAI&usg=AFQjCNErop9VcSRpLD-k_7lZzTH41Q4Bqw&sig2=nLvtBVg2JTjQAVQ4BWqPBw http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2012/03/us-fallen-behind-in-numerical-weather.html?m=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 The JMA would be snow to rain to snow for a lot of people here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Eps? Eps still favors inland track ATM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 EPS is well inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Eps? Track from BWI to Boston. Inland runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Same mean and control from 00z however is much less snowy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Eps? Seems to put more emphasis on the second wave instead of the 2 waves of the 12z OP. Track with the second more consolidated low looks similar to that of the 12z OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 The EPS mean is just under 2" LE. Sultan signal continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Didn't the last storm system we just have also show us a 2 low setup at some point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Seems to put more emphasis on the second wave instead of the 2 waves of the 12z OP. Track with the second more consolidated low looks similar to that of the 12z OP. The first low doesn't have much of a surface reflection on most of the guidance so it's probably not showing up well on an ensemble mean but you can tell it's there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 EPS is well inland Mean is skewed, in reality the eps is all over just as the gefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Didn't the last storm system we just have also show us a 2 low setup at some point? The reason for the two low system is that an initial shortwave is able to run out ahead of the main trough which creates the first system. The trailing energy dropping down the backside of the trough then interacts with some northern stream energy and you end up with a more consolidated low. The UKMET is an example of that on crack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 Mean is skewed, in reality the eps is all over just as the gefsThe vast majority of members are well inland though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 EPS is well inlandHuh ? The mean is right on top of NYC . There are as many members W as there are E . The mean is not WELL inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 too much spread among all models. i have no idea what's most likely attm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 too much spread among all models. i have no idea what's most likely attm Best answer I've heard today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 It's really isn't encouraging how the models have been so bad this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Best answer I've heard todayThat leading shortwave makes things so much more complicated for the models to figure out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Best answer I've heard today Agree . The guidance is all over the place and the extremes E and W give you a mean over NYC Not well inland . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 What was the high/low for NYC so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 What was the high/low for NYC so far 36/24 http://w1.weather.gov/obhistory/KNYC.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Agree . The guidance is all over the place and the extremes E and W give you a mean over NYC Not well inland . 12z parallel says hello Cleveland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 It's sleeting here, quite heavily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 The volatile temperature pattern continues this month as the mild temps coming up will boost the -0.5 departure in NYC back above normal again. It's been a back and forth battle all month here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Look at the CMC arctic blast by the end of February. Brutal also GFS has it but not as brutal Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 First 60 of the year!!! (61 in the park) It's happening! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 what a torch! 61 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 63 and springtime wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 First 60 of the year!!! (61 in the park) It's happening! Fourth 60+ reading of the month at KPOU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Fourth 60+ reading of the month at KPOU. We've hit 59 like 5 times. Stupid park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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