IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 That's exactly what the 12z Euro OP has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Looks like the trailing system is going to come right up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 1.00-1.25" LE with the system on Wednesday. A lot of that is snow well N&W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Most areas NW of nyc are 4-7" for first event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Second system is 988mb passing right over NJ/NYC. Upstate NY buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 This threat is done. No cold air to work with. It's gonna torch an pour rain. As much as I want snow an love snow storms. It's not looking very good at the moment. Much can change but then trends arent very good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Second system is around 0.75-1.00" LE all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 This threat is done. No cold air to work with. It's gonna torch an pour rain. As much as I want snow an love snow storms. It's not looking very good at the moment. Much can change but then trends arent very good It's a threat for the interior. A good one. And it's about time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 This threat is done. No cold air to work with. It's gonna torch an pour rain. As much as I want snow an love snow storms. It's not looking very good at the moment. Much can change but then trends arent very good It's not done for interior sections north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 It's not done for interior sections north and west. Not at all and I wouldnt be shocked to see some snow for NYC also but this is an inland threat. We don't even know what's going to happen with the wave on Sunday night lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 You need to go a few hundred miles north and west of nyc for this to be a "big" storm per the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Closest HP is like 1000 miles away. 81,95 or the BM and it's still probably gonna be warm for a lot of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Western NY, central and western PA are the euro winners lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 You need to go a few hundred miles north and west of nyc for this to be a "big" storm per the euro Nope. 6+ just to the north and west of NYC per Euro. NYC gets 3-5 on the Euro. Not sure if that is from the sunday wave or the front end. This was based off the wxbell snowmap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Nope. 6+ just to the north and west of NYC per Euro. NYC gets 3-5 on the Euro. Not sure if that is from the sunday wave or the front end. The Sunday wave on the Euro is 1-2" and that's being generous 6-8" NW of nyc on front end dump, washed away by 1.0"+ of rain My point was "big" snowstorm.. As in 12+ that isn't washed away by soaking rains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 CMC ensembles agree with the two wave theory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 The Sunday wave on the Euro is 1-2" and that's being generous 6-8" NW of nyc on front end dump, washed away by 1.0"+ of rain My point was "big" snowstorm.. As in 12+ that isn't washed away by soaking rains Euro went stronger on this run compared to 0z in regards to Sunday. Lets see what the Nam shows soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Also keep in mind the GFS and euro are about 600+ miles apart on that second wave... If in fact the 2 low solution is correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Euro went stronger on this run compared to 0z in regards to Sunday. Lets see what the Nam shows soon. Ncep had a bold discredit of the nam for Sunday.. Let's hope here wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 Screw the euro operational run right now, look at the EPS later. The operational runs are all over run to run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 It's likely a perception thing because we look at models more now beyond day 4-5 because more models go out that far. Also, models are better so they see those treats a week or more out and struggle with them, used to be they didn't pick them up as much so we didn't see the evolution to the eventual solution Bingo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Bingo Yeah, it was typical in the 70's and 80's not to even get the P-TYPE correct on a 24 hr forecast. Many times the storms tracked further SE than expected and we were left with no precip when warnings were issued. The telltale sign was a full moon visible through a thin high cloud deck when it was supposed to be snowing. I think the idea of the models picking up on post day 5 threats successfully didn't really emerge until the early 90's. So we have come a long way since those days. At least now we can pick out day 6-10 storm threats in a general sense and sometimes more specifically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Jma still has a storm off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Jma still has a storm off the coast.When was the last time the JMA scored a coup? Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 When was the last time the JMA scored a coup? Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk I've wondered the same thing lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 JMA would be a MECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 There's always the JMA lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 The JMA is a two part system just like the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Eps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Andrew Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Last time JMA was right I believe was Feb. 12, 2006 storm which gave NYC Central Park its greatest recorded snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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