IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Don't bother with the GGEM. It's a huge mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 The two wave idea by the GFS is likely not legit, those sort of things rarely unfold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Don't bother with the GGEM. It's a huge mess. GGEM also has multiple lows like the GFS. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 The two wave idea by the GFS is likely not legit, those sort of things rarely unfold GGEM has the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 10 of the last 12 GFS runs have been a hit for northern New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Ukie cuts the storm near Cleveland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 GGEM has the same thing. Oh yeah it's not unusual at all to see many of the models show it beyond day 4-5 but it's so tough to get it to occur and often even when it does the same exact areas won't get hit by both Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 So as of now the storm is anywhere from Cleveland to OTS.....yea I'd say we can def make solid predictions based off seasonal trends at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Ukie cuts the storm near Cleveland At this rate, the storm will be in Colorado. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Are model divergence and disagreement becoming more in degree today than used to be? It may be just my perception, but it sure seems so. Any research on this? Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Are model divergence and disagreement becoming more in degree today than used to be? It may be just my perception, but it sure seems so. Any research on this? Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Blame the super El Niño imo.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Are model divergence and disagreement becoming more in degree today than used to be? It may be just my perception, but it sure seems so. Any research on this? Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk It's likely a perception thing because we look at models more now beyond day 4-5 because more models go out that far. Also, models are better so they see those treats a week or more out and struggle with them, used to be they didn't pick them up as much so we didn't see the evolution to the eventual solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 It's likely a perception thing because we look at models more now beyond day 4-5 because more models go out that far. Also, models are better so they see those treats a week or more out and struggle with them, used to be they didn't pick them up as much so we didn't see the evolution to the eventual solutionMakes sense, yes. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Gefs look like ukie, Cleveland lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Gefs look like ukie, Cleveland lmao Big sign for a super soaker when you have an ensemble mean this wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Big sign for a super soaker when you have an ensemble mean this wet Let's all keep in mind this IS the Gfs ens.... The same Gfs that's had its Op waver 400 miles on 3 straight runs, back and forth lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Let's all keep in mind this IS the Gfs ens.... The same Gfs that's had its Op waver 400 miles on 3 straight runs, back and forth lol... The difference this time , it`s being matched by other guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 It shows 2 lowsI see 3 lows at one point on the cmc, which is crazy and looking at the gfs and I do believe cmc, it creates another low off of long island Friday? With this storm it looks more floppy then some of the other storms this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 The difference this time , it`s being matched by other guidance For example? The D-5 ukie? No guidance has inland runner at the moment like the Gfs ens, and ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 12z 00z Barely 12 hrs and such a drastic swing.... So because the ukie suggests this also, it's a lock with "other guidance" lol... I can't believe we're even entertaining the thought of knowing a solution at this point, this could very well be in inland runner rain event.. But I certainly don't pretend to think ALL signs point toward that solution.. Sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 IMO, the blocking is forecast to develop a little too late for the midweek storm to pose a big snowfall threat to the coastal plain. Interior sections have a much better chance to pick up an appreciable or perhaps significant snowfall (4" or more). However, I suspect the area of heaviest snows may fall somewhat to the south and east of the heaviest snows from the February 15-16 storm (central PA, central New York State rather than western PA and Western NY) given where things currently stand. At present the AO will likely be shifting negative around the 2/24-25 timeframe. About half of ensemble members are negative at that time and around half are positive. For the snowier outcome to translate farther east, one would need the most negative ensemble members to verify with the AO perhaps down between -2 and -1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 For example? The D-5 ukie? No guidance has inland runner at the moment like the Gfs ens, and ukie The primary holds on way too long here for the 1st wave on the EURO The UKIE and GEFS drive these West 3 issues here to overcome Western ridge is too far west , so you are able to amplify early WAR . Under modeled in the L/R pokes W as we get closer LP in the lakes . Not what you want to see . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 this snowstorm will come together-- -and it will be big for someone on the East Coast--but the dm is Incoherent http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/wx_maps/index.html http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml#day47 OPC day 4 spot check West Coast Heights this is a nice prog ATM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 The Euro is much more disjointed this run. It's back to digging the trailing energy into the SW instead of having it interact earlier with the northern stream dropping through the mid-west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Three different surface lows on Wednesday morning. One in MS, one in E KY and one near OBX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 The first system looks like a front end dump followed by ice inland and then rain everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Three different surface lows on Wednesday morning. One in MS, one in E KY and one near OBX.Well, Im glad we are getting closer to a consensus. (sarcasm intended) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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