Mophstymeo Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 In reality they haven't trended west until within 72 hours... If models showed an inland runner or coastal hugger on Sunday/Monday if agree... But 6 days worth of runs left? We haven't even got a good grasp on timing, strength, or placement.... ALL models are still on a run to run flip flop... So maybe the low ends up in the Great Lakes? It seems, just from looking at what's happened winced January, that things will go progressively west. Btw, I'd gladly eat my words. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Op vs para Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 12z vs 00z ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 In reality they haven't trended west until within 72 hours... If models showed an inland runner or coastal hugger on Sunday/Monday if agree... But 6 days worth of runs left? We haven't even got a good grasp on timing, strength, or placement.... ALL models are still on a run to run flip flop... You're missing the forest for the trees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 A lot of factors still on the table that will eventually determine track that are still not well sampled. Many more runs to go, including runs for the Sunday and Monday event that could impact the midweek event. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 You're missing the forest for the trees Thats actually the exact opposite..... And what would the case be, if models went from an inland runner... To an offshore bomb in 1 overnight run? ... My point has been that "seasonal model tendicies" is not a scientific tool or method of refrence.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Regardless of whether I want snow out of this or not, even if this was a guaranteed rainstorm in April, I would refuse to believe that your nailing down a solution and locking it up 6 days out, based off what previous storms have done and "model tendicies"..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Regardless of whether I want snow out of this or not, even if this was a guaranteed rainstorm in April, I would refuse to believe that your nailing down a solution and locking it up 6 days out, based off what previous storms have done and "model tendicies".....6 days is an eternity in the models world. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 It's not just a magical trend there has been a consistently undermodeled AR in the means that continues to push W in the guidance the closer we have gotten to several events. We keep seeing SLP modeled E but as we get closer the models see the resistance and tilt the SW early. It's not just a trend it's an error in the models that corrects closer in . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 It's not just a magical trend there has been a consistently undermodeled AR in the means that continues to push W in the guidance the closer we have gotten to several events. We keep seeing SLP modeled E but as we get closer the models see the resistance and tilt the SW early. It's not just a trend it's an error in the models that corrects closer in . Will give this more credibility if we see the western solutions hold through today Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 You have to change the pattern before you see different results. The Western Atlantic Ridge has been very impressive since late January. 500.gif I could be wrong but I dont see this feature vanishing on the LR guidance either. Even with the other teleconnections looking favorable, that WAR will dampen our hopes/spirits every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 6 days is an eternity in the models world. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Under 5 days now actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 I could be wrong but I dont see this feature vanishing on the LR guidance either. Even with the other teleconnections looking favorable, that WAR will dampen our hopes/spirits every time.This is what happens when you have a dominant, screaming southern stream/strong El Niño and a +NAO. It is the equivalent of having a SE Ridge in a La Niña. We got away with a +NAO the last few winters because we didn't have a raging STJ blasting in from the Pacific. With this Nino in place, we were playing with fire with the +NAO and we are getting burned.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I could be wrong but I dont see this feature vanishing on the LR guidance either. Even with the other teleconnections looking favorable, that WAR will dampen our hopes/spirits every time. We'll see if the EPS call for a more neutral NAO and -AO can show any improvements here later in February into early March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I could be wrong but I dont see this feature vanishing on the LR guidance either. Even with the other teleconnections looking favorable, that WAR will dampen our hopes/spirits every time.So, are you predicting cutters and inland runners the rest of the winter due to the WAR? Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 My point still holds Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Not sure I agree. Your statement that the energy isn't well-sampled is inaccurate as extra data was sampled and ingested into the most recent model runs. DM verified this with his post yesterday showing aircraft routes in the Pacific sampling the data. If anything, once this data was ingested into the models is precisely when we started trending away from a favorable solution. I'm pulling for a SECS/MECS in the big cities but facts are facts. Still some time for changes tho as you noted however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 So, are you predicting cutters and inland runners the rest of the winter due to the WAR? Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk I think you are misinterpreting what I am suggesting which is merely that this feature is a force to be reckoned with during this El Nino and has, on more than a few occasions, thrown a wrench into our favored benchmark tracks this season. If it adjust East and/or weakens for a period, we get hit ala January blizzard. If it is a long-term feature as it has been, we are going to struggle for substantial snows in the big cities and coastal plain. So no, to answer your question, I don't see all cutters and inland runners the rest of the winter. But with that said, we need this feature to adjust East and/or weaken for a period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I think a lot more time for changes since model solutions this far out are usually never verified. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk There will certainly be many more changes...this much we agree on. I just don't like the fact that it was always a rather marginal situation for the big cities and east irt to snowfall and now we have taken a fairly large step away from a favorable solution. Still time for baby steps in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 There will certainly be many more changes...this much we agree on. I just don't like the fact that it was always a rather marginal situation for the big cities and east irt to snowfall and now we have taken a fairly large step away from a favorable solution. Still time for baby steps in the right direction.I agree. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Gfs will be yet another solution.... The trailing energy behind the first wave has about 300 miles more separation, the initial wave becomes the main storm as oppose to 06 inland runner where the 2nd piece of energy takes the lead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Gfs is another coastal solution... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Gfs is again very close to a snow bomb for the area.... Just a tad late... Wow at the inconsistency of these models Gfs goes from all snow NW of city, to a mix as it pulls away... Opposite of what I'd expect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Gfs is again very close to a snow bomb for the area.... Just a tad late... Wow at the inconsistency of these models Gfs goes from NW of city, to a mix as it pulls away... Opposite of what I'd expect It shows 2 lows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Verbatim, gfs is 2-5 city, 5-8 NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 It shows 2 lowsGFS is doing terrible with timing, which is effecting the 2 pieces of energy at play, one solution was the 2nd wave transfers energy and the first wave becomes primary storm, riding the coast, another scenario is the trailing wave becomes the primary, robbing the initial waves energy and forcing the storm west as an inland runner(06z) third scenario is 2 weaker lows with no transfer (don't buy that) It's either gonna be a coastal or an inland runner... Not 2 sep lows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 GFS is doing terrible with timing, which is effecting the 2 pieces of energy at play, one solution was the 2nd wave transfers energy and the first wave becomes primary storm, riding the coast, another scenario is the trailing wave becomes the primary, robbing the initial waves energy and forcing the storm west as an inland runner(06z) third scenario is 2 weaker lows with no transfer (don't buy that) It's either gonna be a coastal or an inland runner... Not 2 sep lows The GFS should have this storm figured out by next Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Gfs will be yet another solution.... The trailing energy behind the first wave has about 300 miles more separation, the initial wave becomes the main storm as oppose to 06 inland runner where the 2nd piece of energy takes the leadGood separation seems to be key for initial to be primary, correct? Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Good separation seems to be key for initial to be primary, correct? Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Not too much though, or you get 2 strung out weak coastals, one of which goes OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 The GFS should have this storm figured out by next Friday Yea it really is awful... I'll take the euro/rgem/nam on Monday and run with it.. Whatever it shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Verbatim, gfs is 2-5 city, 5-8 NW Verbatim between 0.25-0.50" falls before the changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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