Rjay Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Some pretty horrible runs tonight for midweek storm. Hopefully the ensebles, Euro, and paras look better. There is time for models to change for the better, but the trend is not your friend now.We really have to remember just HOW FAR OUT this is.... 6 days there's no such thing as trends.......Euro went from major snowstorm, to well offshore, to inland runner, Gfs went from well offshore to inland runner to double low mess Ggem, went from offshore, to major snowstorm, to inland runner Ukie is God knows where... Somewhere in PA Stop reading into ops runs for more than what they're worth... Ensembles all look good this far out Eps Gefs Geps ^^ that's all you should care about till Sunday 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 0z Euro shifted west and now shows a coastal hugger. Good hit for inland areas. NYC gets a few inches then rain on the snowmap. 6 inches just to the west of NYC. Not a bad run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 GGEM,GGEM ensembles and now Euro have 2 waves. Complex situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 WPC day 6 benchmark red zone Expect major changes with their next maps. 0z a disaster...heck, the Ukie has the low @ 983 over Pitt....everything else came West including ens means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Lol.. Gfs basically 100% on its own in all aspects of the next week, on the Sunday/Monday storm, the fact that it's nearly 12hours faster than most guidance for the midweek storm, and it kicks the high east sooo fast.. Another run, and yet another drastic solution change from the gfsI know this was posted prior to the rest of 0z but didnt all other guidance just start moving towards a GFS op solution? Biggest concern imo are the ens means (Gefs/Geps). Too close to the coast, cold air moving out quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Lets do this WPC QPF outlook check* benchmark red zone track ATM Check* 1032mb Canadian High Pressure on the uptick 48 hrs pregame Check* good vibes all round tonight from where I sit New data suggest HP takes off to the East faster than Forrest Gump running cross country. Return flow around the departing HP is a beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Expect major changes with their next maps. 0z a disaster...heck, the Ukie has the low @ 983 over Pitt....everything else came West including ens means. Ukie is a big outlier right now. No other model shows that. Every model has the low near the coast or on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 We really have to remember just HOW FAR OUT this is.... 6 days there's no such thing as trends....... Euro went from major snowstorm, to well offshore, to inland runner, Gfs went from well offshore to inland runner to double low mess Ggem, went from offshore, to major snowstorm, to inland runner Ukie is God knows where... Somewhere in PA Stop reading into ops runs for more than what they're worth... Ensembles all look good this far out Eps Gefs Geps ^^ that's all you should care about till Sunday 00z 5 days out now and ens means now look like crud. We're headed in the wrong direction attm. Still time to shift tho but in an already marginal situation, things just became more difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Ukie is a big outlier right now. No other model shows that. Every model has the low near the coast or on the coast.While I agree, the gfs is actually darn close to taking the primary rather far West too. Like u said complex situation. I'm not loving where we are sitting attm.edit: gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 While I agree, the ggem is actually darn close to taking the primary rather far West too. Like u said complex situation. I'm not loving where we are sitting attm tho. Euro shows how we can get snow ( front end thump ). It would have been nice to have a -NAO right about now. Still plenty of time for us but inland areas look to be cashing in with this storm. Thats not to say that the coast can't get a few inches from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I think the only thing to take away at day 5 time lead is that there is the potential for a mega bomb here..GGEM has been consistent with showing this. Euro for day 5 position does not look to bad either..UKMET is a huge outlier and the GFS has had a different solution every 6 hrs.... whether well inland or inland looks to be decent snows ..coast still in question but that is why there is 5 days still of model solutions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I think the only thing to take away at day 5 time lead is that there is the potential for a mega bomb here..GGEM has been consistent with showing this. Euro for day 5 position does not look to bad either..UKMET is a huge outlier and the GFS has had a different solution every 6 hrs.... whether well inland or inland looks to be decent snows ..coast still in question but that is why there is 5 days still of model solutionsI can agree with this. 0z wasnt a win per se but lots of time to go here. Potential still there.....most of us are still in the game. N and W of the big cities and elevated areas looking best for now tho, no doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 6z gfs is now a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Gfs went to buffalo with the low at 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Ah the windshield wiper effect of the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Ah the windshield wiper effect of the models EPS mean came west from 12z. Not much room for amplification with the strong ridge sitting off the East Coast. The more amplified a system, the further west that this can come. 0z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Not a single Gefs member is as far west as op.. Models are insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 There are just as many eastern eps members as western, the mean, which is what u show is scewed by the most western ensembles That's not where you want to see the mean 6+ days out with the tendency for models to come west since late January in the short term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 That's not where you want to see the mean 6+ days out with the tendency for models to come west since late January in the short term. It's 1 run on a D-6 storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 That's not where you want to see the mean 6+ days out with the tendency for models to come west since late January in the short term. ENSEMBLES / NOT OP . Major nod to the UKMET . We go from the BM to this in 12 hours . Incredible . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 ENSEMBLES / NOT OP . Major nod to the UKMET . We go from the BM to this in 12 hours . Incredible . Maybe we can get a big enough AO drop later in the month into early March so we can handle an amplified system without it coming too far west. I guess we'll have to wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Not a single Gefs member is as far west as op.. Models are insane Wut? Did you see the 6z GEFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 For the 0Z parallel Euro fans, it's further west than the Op and EPS mean and similar to the GFS and UKMET. It still looks like it will be going operational on March 8th. Implementation of IFS cycle 41r2 Created by Umberto Modigliani, last modified by Paul Dando on Feb 11, 201 ECMWF plans to upgrade the horizontal resolution of its integrated forecasting system (IFS) including its high-resolution (HRES) and ensemble (ENS) forecasts.The upgraded horizontal resolution will be about 9 km for the HRES and the data assimilation (the outer loop of the 4D-Var) and about 18 km for the ENS up to day 15 and about 36 km for the extended range (monthly). The resolution of the ensemble of data assimilations (EDA) will be increased to 18 km. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Wut? Did you see the 6z GEFS? goofus has performed very bad lately, look at the last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Wut? Did you see the 6z GEFS? 6z Gefs weren't out when I posted this, I was referring to 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Smh at D-6 forecasts based off "seasonal model tendencies", what happens when 3 days from now and 20+ model runs later the members and ops are OTS or benchmark again... And we have 3+ days STILL till event, it's insane were even talking low placement on a run to run basis 130 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Smh at D-6 forecasts based off "seasonal model tendencies", what happens when 3 days from now and 20+ model runs later the members and ops are OTS or benchmark again... And we have 3+ days STILL till event, it's insane were even talking low placement on a run to run basis 130 hours out While I agree with you logically speaking, it's tough to ignore what every storm has done this season. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 While I agree with you logically speaking, it's tough to ignore what every storm has done this season. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk You have to change the pattern before you see different results. The Western Atlantic Ridge has been very impressive since late January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 While I agree with you logically speaking, it's tough to ignore what every storm has done this season. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk In reality they haven't trended west until within 72 hours... If models showed an inland runner or coastal hugger on Sunday/Monday if agree... But 6 days worth of runs left? We haven't even got a good grasp on timing, strength, or placement.... ALL models are still on a run to run flip flop... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.