nyblizz44 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 A lot of Gefs members are interior paste job, city is very close, I don't doubt that things will trend colder for our friends on the coast U lost me , your comment is re: Mon. or Wed,?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Gefs are pretty wet for MondayMonday is the proverbial sacrificial lamb for the midweek system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 The PARA Euro is a true Miller A with a big closed low over the TN Valley. I can not figure out why the models split the QPF field as it moves North. The 12z GGEM doesn't do this and the result is a nuke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Monday is the proverbial sacrificial lamb for the midweek system. Maybe that Monday system will turn into a 50/50 locking in some cold HP to our north just in time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowBlitzkrieg Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 is the para euro cold enough for snow for the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Maybe that Monday system will turn into a 50/50 locking in some cold HP to our north just in time At the very least it ushers in some cold HP behind it possibly setting the stage for midweek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 is the para euro cold enough for snow for the coast?I hesitate to say this because it's the equivalent of poking a hornets nest but no. It's not good for anyone in NNJ either. Upstate NY, PA, NE, LHV special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 The winter of 13-14 was a prime example on how to have dry snow I get that. But all snow is wet. Just different levels on the spectrum. If It wasn't wet it wouldn't be snow. That's like saying rain isn't wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I get that. But all snow is wet. Just different levels on the spectrum. If It wasn't wet it wouldn't be snow. That's like saying rain isn't wet. Let me rephrase that. High ratio snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 NOAA Gulf Data Flight Today Most times this data gets included into the U.S. model runs If they fly in the winter..a storm threat is taken seriously http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi?basin=al&year=2016&product=sonde&identifier=160218212403308&aircraft=308&month=02&day=18&mission=WX&agency=AF&ob=02-18-2228-05-1027-26-16 http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi?basin=al&nontasked=2016 OPC 96hr surface map Keeping an eye on the 1032mb prog of high pressure above the Lakes our Low would be the 1008mb prog at the FLA panhandle heavy traffic with multiple low pressure systems in the northwest atlantic and possible 50/50 low development on here also the map is chock full of possibilities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 is this the gut feeling thread ? Gut feeling is banter IMO - and I totally disagree with your gut - all guidance is moving east and colder - have to also consider climatology its still FEB. - Cold enough air and the offshore track does not translate to mostly rain in FEBMan mad I missed this and no it's not a gut feeling. At least give me a chance to explain myself before calling me out just because what I wrote is not what you wanted to read! What has been the trend this winter thus far? A gradual Nw trend. For this past storm that hurt us. For the blizzard it helped us. The war is being undermodled this far out. This WILL come back NW. And by the way, going with what models say verbatim this far out is just stupid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Nam is a nice hit for NYC and inland areas with Monday's low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Nam is a nice hit for NYC and inland areas with Monday's low.Come on now that's NAM on its most outer periphary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Nam is a nice hit for NYC and inland areas with Monday's low. Interested to see mostly what the Euro has to say, the NAM has tended to be too far south with these types of systems before beyond day 2. The NAM also is notably and Lily too slow vs most other guidance which may be allowing the high and colder air mass to come in 6-9 hours faster and resulting in the further south track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 WPC day 6 benchmark red zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 WPC day 6 benchmark red zone Wouldn't this be a much better track for NE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Lol.. Gfs basically 100% on its own in all aspects of the next week, on the Sunday/Monday storm, the fact that it's nearly 12hours faster than most guidance for the midweek storm, and it kicks the high east sooo fast.. Another run, and yet another drastic solution change from the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Wouldn't this be a much better track for NE? Without a doubt Z but that prog is a bit murky ATM with the two low pressure areas so close also the 0z GFS is just as muddy--pitch it and look for the GEFS run out next OPC map I posted earlier has the goods lined up for the Metro I stand with that for today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Wouldn't this be a much better track for NE?A foot+ of white heaven with that track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Lol.. Gfs basically 100% on its own in all aspects of the next week, on the Sunday/Monday storm, the fact that it's nearly 12hours faster than most guidance for the midweek storm, and it kicks the high east sooo fast.. Another run, and yet another drastic solution change from the gfs You better hope it's 100% wrong because the 0z gfs is an ugly setup for pretty much everybody. You still have a NF high where a low should be and we just saw what that led to. The only way I see it working out for the coast is if we do get two smaller pieces ejecting NE with the latter giving us some snow. Anything more amped and the coast will be screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 You better hope it's 100% wrong because the 0z gfs is an ugly setup for pretty much everybody. You still have a NF high where a low should be and we just saw what that led to. The only way I see it working out for the coast is if we do get two smaller pieces ejecting NE with the latter giving us some snow. Anything more amped and the coast will be screwed. You keep saying this and it's wrong.. There's actually several ways the coast sees snow in this set-up.. If the first piece of energy, aka Sunday Monday storm, is stronger it draws with it colder air, as it pushes off the coast it acts as a block to seal in the cold and doesn't allow the H to push east, also if the northern stream isn't as progressive as the gfs, which right now the gfs is alone in that regard, then the cold stays locked in and the storm rides the coast... This is NOT a 1 shot only storm set-up lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Btw to put frame of reference to the gfs...... At 12z the gfs had the low all the way off the Georgia coast, same time frame 18z the low was about 100 miles off south jersey shore, same time frame 00z the low was about 50 miles north, and 50 miles west of its 18z location..... I wouldn't give the gfs the time of day.... ANDDDD to top it all off its showing a double low scenario? Please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Lets do this WPC QPF outlook check* benchmark red zone track ATM Check* 1032mb Canadian High Pressure on the uptick 48 hrs pregame Check* good vibes all round tonight from where I sit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Lets do this WPC QPF outlook check* benchmark red zone track ATM Check* 1032mb Canadian High Pressure on the uptick 48 hrs pregame Check* good vibes all round tonight from where I sit With seasonal NW trends within 72 hrs I see no reason why anyone should be in poor spirits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Ukie huge cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Add the ggem to the cutter camp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Add the ggem to the cutter camp Nope. It's an inland runner then develops a coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Models are all over the place.. Good thing it's 6 days away still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Some pretty horrible runs tonight for midweek storm. Hopefully the ensebles, Euro, and paras look better. There is time for models to change for the better, but the trend is not your friend now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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