Yanksfan Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 The PV attack might be leading to some of the models picking up on Greenland blocking for next week If we can get blocking into play, we can have an amped up solution that takes a favorable track. Something to watch for in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Gfs looks like a closer coastal track, stronger storm, but a bit warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 That first wave Monday misses south again on gfs too The models are struggling severely wth that thing. I didn't like it because before today it resembled a pure SWFE which I never like here with ridging out west. But now it's almost becoming a hybrid SWFE on the latest GFS runs and to an extent the Euro so I'm showing some interest now but I still think it's nothing major Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 The models are struggling severely wth that thing. I didn't like it because before today it resembled a pure SWFE which I never like here with ridging out west. But now it's almost becoming a hybrid SWFE on the latest GFS runs and to an extent the Euro so I'm showing some interest now but I still think it's nothing major I won't take the gfs serious, especially showing that SWFE soooo far south, in comparison to other guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Most are 1-3 on gfs, LHV sees 4-6 in spots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Most are 1-3 on gfs, LHV sees 4-6 in spots This sbone of those situations where we need a bomb to pull in colder air like the GGEM. Even for the coastal plane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Long enlogated low on gfs off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Also, gfs once again struggles with timing, it's nearly 12-18 hours faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Long enlogated low on gfs off the coast. Very close to a bomb, need it to really deepen, draw in colder air like ggem l, very close imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 My gut feeling with this is that models eventually go back to the monster bomb idea, it may not be a snow event but I feel that is what will happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Lmao a snowman19 special? Come'on guys he deserves a jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 My gut feeling with this is that models eventually go back to the monster bomb idea, it may not be a snow event but I feel that is what will happen If that Greenland blocking sets in, even minor... And this thing bombs off the coast, I would highly doubt anyone west or north of Long Island is seeing much rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Looks like a mess on the gfs and definitely not good for snow on the coastal plain. If we're going to see anymore snow this winter (NYC metro) then it'll be in early March if the AO tanks as blocking sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Looks like a mess on the gfs and definitely not good for snow on the coastal plain. If we're going to see anymore snow this winter then it'll be in early March if the AO tanks as blocking sets up. I don't agree, but I won't argue, let someone from the city make that debate... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 The PARA euro is a MECS, big interior snows, very close for the city Looks nothing like the Op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Looks like a mess on the gfs and definitely not good for snow on the coastal plain. If we're going to see anymore snow this winter (NYC metro) then it'll be in early March if the AO tanks as blocking sets up. We have to watch the AO to see if blocking is going to develop in time for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 We have to watch the AO to see if blocking is going to develop in time for this storm. Don't think so but perhaps it'll be enough for interior locations. Nothing screams big storm right now though, looks disorganized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Para euro is 12+ area wide NW interior, and 12-18+ for most of wester Virginia through PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Bernie is still sticking by his guns, says the air ahead of this storm is MUCH colder than modeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 My gut feeling with this is that models eventually go back to the monster bomb idea, it may not be a snow event but I feel that is what will happen That's what I'm thinking. A tucked in west of the benchmark bomb. Mostly rain for the coast. North of 84 a paste bomb. And just an all out dump up in the mountains above 1500' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Models are trending MUCH colder..... If you have doubts that the ingredients for a MECS.. EVEN for NYC and LONG ISLAND just aren't there... I insist you watch Bernies 4pm video http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/trending-now/video/2430839568001/snow-ice-and-rain-to-cause-maj You may not like him, but he's not an idiot, and he certainly knows more than you or me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 That's what I'm thinking. A tucked in west of the benchmark bomb. Mostly rain for the coast. North of 84 a paste bomb. And just an all out dump up in the mountains above 1500' Big PNA spike does give some credence to that idea. I think eventually models will compromise by showing a more organized storm with a good interior hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 With that greenland ridging starting to show up, this could be an all area snowstorm for us or a snow to mix back to snow for the coast and all snow inland. We'll see what happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Models are trending MUCH colder..... If you have doubts that the ingredients for a MECS.. EVEN for NYC and LONG ISLAND just aren't there... I insist you watch Bernies 4pm video http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/trending-now/video/2430839568001/snow-ice-and-rain-to-cause-maj You may not like him, but he's not an idiot, and he certainly knows more than you or me Vendor thread please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Vendor thread please Sorry totally forgot we even had that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 That's what I'm thinking. A tucked in west of the benchmark bomb. Mostly rain for the coast. North of 84 a paste bomb. And just an all out dump up in the mountains above 1500' is this the gut feeling thread ? Gut feeling is banter IMO - and I totally disagree with your gut - all guidance is moving east and colder - have to also consider climatology its still FEB. - Cold enough air and the offshore track does not translate to mostly rain in FEB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Gefs are pretty wet for Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Gefs are ALL over the place in terms of timing for wed/Thursday Which is key to the track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 A lot of Gefs members are interior paste job, city is very close, I don't doubt that things will trend colder for our friends on the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 It doesn't get much better looking 5 days out for the interior crew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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