rossi Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Verbatim it's 1-3" for the coastal plain and 3-6" N&W on the Euro. more south and to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 For Sunday night into Monday morning the Euro is 0.50"+ LE from the city on North. MMU is bullseye with 0.75"+ Temps look very marginal with the low tracking right off the CNJ coast and just south of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Verbatim it's 1-3" for the coastal plain and 3-6" N&W on the Euro. Are you counting the Monday system ? The main system is SNOW/ NOT WET SNOW on the coast . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Ah OK that's the Thursday Wednesday storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 more south and to the coast That's precip not snow, a lot of that is rain or mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 For Sunday night into Monday morning the Euro is 0.50"+ LE from the city on North. MMU is bullseye with 0.75"+ Temps look very marginal with the low tracking right off the CNJ coast and just south of LI. Hour 150/156 850 - 2 925 - 4 BL 33 DP upper 20`s throughout The surface ends up colder. Not marginal at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 That's precip not snow, a lot of that is rain or mix. wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 The reason why the Euro isn't showing much accumulations near the coast is because it has the surface in the mid 30's. That's why I called it wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Hour 150/156 850 - 2 925 - 4 BL 33 DP upper 20`s throughout The surface ends up colder. Not marginal at all Wrong system. That post was for Sunday/Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 That map is sht , it reads 33 as non snow . Do you understand simple meteorology ? NE wind , Low to the BM all mid layers - 2 to -4 DP in the uppers 20s So that 33 will b 30 as you get closer . you are making yourself look stupid here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 wrong Look at the greater NYC area, LI and coastal NJ and see that the amounts are less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 That map is sht , it reads 33 as non snow . Do you understand simple meteorology ? NE wind , Low to the BM all mid layers - 2 to -4 DP in the uppers 20s So that 33 will b 30 as you get closer . you are making yourself look stupid here You're assuming that this is going to end up trending more favorable as we go on. I said that that surface temps were in the mid 30's. Max res is showing NYC at 34. While it may very well be snowing at that hour, it's going to be a wet snow, verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Wrong system. That post was for Sunday/Monday. You combines both systems . The 1st system has no snow for the coast . .2 OF LIQUID WITH THE BL AT 40 850s crash after the precip is E . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Where is MMU? Morristown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 So now we have snow possible Sunday into Monday? Is the euro the only one showing this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 You're assuming that this is going to end up trending more favorable as we go on. I said that that surface temps were in the mid 30's. Max res is showing NYC at 34. While it may very well be snowing at that hour, it's going to be a wet snow, verbatim. No verbatim 33/28 NE wind 850 -2 925 -4 is snow . The BL cools and those snow maps are not what you should use here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 You combines both systems . The 1st system has no snow for the coast . .2 OF LIQUID WITH THE BL AT 40 850s crash after the precip is E . LOL I said that the first system had marginal temps, which you actually agreed with. I'm not combining anything. If you look at those goofy snow maps they don't show any snow within 100 miles of the city which is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 No verbatim 33/28 NE wind 850 -2 925 -4 is snow . The BL cools and those snow maps are not what you should use here You're really trying my patience with this one. What kind of ratios do you think you're getting with 850's at -2 and an above freezing BL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 So now we have snow possible Sunday into Monday? Is the euro the only one showing this? The GGEM has it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 You guys can argue all you want about a day 5+ model run and as to whether or not it shows wet snow, a mix or rain. It's going to be gone next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 It's time for me to take a break. I've watched the models since yesterday and I've seen a half a dozen wildy different solutions in that time frame. Obviously the models have no clue at this stage, none of them. It's not like they are disagreeing with each other, they each have contradicted themselves from run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 18, 2016 Author Share Posted February 18, 2016 The operational models are a mess, flip flopping like fishes out of water. Look at the ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Wet snow from DC Metro up to Boston Wednesday night. 150/156. Would include NYC at this time . Maybe you meant another Wed . It showed SNOW the fact that it missed N and W you threw in wet . LOL I will end this/ not my 1st rodeo kid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 The GFS also has the system for Sunday/Monday but it tracks too far South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 150/156. Would include NYC at this time . Maybe you meant another Wed . It showed SNOW the fact that it missed N and W you threw in wet . LOL I will end this/ not my 1st rodeo kid. The moderate snow stretches back into NE PA. How is that a miss N&W? BTW, saying from DC Metro up to Boston, wouldn't that automatically assume NYC was included? I'm not sure what you're getting at here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 The moderate snow stretches back into NE PA. How is that a miss N&W? BTW, saying from DC Metro up to Boston, wouldn't that automatically assume NYC was included? I'm not sure what you're getting at here. The heavier snow with the main SHORTWAVE if off to your SW not NW and as per that run the heaviest axis runs right up I95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 The heavier snow with the main SHORTWAVE if off to your SW not NW and as per that run the heaviest axis runs right up I95 Where do you think I live? I'm 25 miles from the GWB. That run would have been fine for where I live. Lighter precip but colder temps. It all balances itself out in the end. What are you even arguing about? Do you not realize that the 00z run will likely look completely different anyway? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 It's time for me to take a break. I've watched the models since yesterday and I've seen a half a dozen wildy different solutions in that time frame. Obviously the models have no clue at this stage, none of them. It's not like they are disagreeing with each other, they each have contradicted themselves from run to run. Agreed completely. There is a likely storm for the East Coast 5-6 days from now. It's anyone's guess what the final outcome will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Where do you think I live? I'm 25 miles from the GWB. That run would have been fine for where I live. Lighter precip but colder temps. It all balances itself out in the end. What are you even arguing about? Do you not realize that the 00z run will likely look completely different anyway? Yes . They change every 6 hours . I only argued with the term wet snow as it implied non accumulating crap / that`s not how I saw it . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Yes . They change every 6 hours . I only argued with the term wet snow as it implied non accumulating crap / that`s not how I saw it . You should stop assuming. Wet snow doesn't mean non accumulating snow. It means that you're not going to get 6" of snow out of a half inch liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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