BxEngine Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Well said...also I don't recall a 5-7 day threat being discussed so vociferously. I mean weenie maps have been posted...even yesterday. You guys really must want this one. Odd since the event Monday which did some icing damage was barely discussed There are 42 pages on mondays storm. What is "discussed a lot" to you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Well said...also I don't recall a 5-7 day threat being discussed so vociferously. I mean weenie maps have been posted...even yesterday. You guys really must want this one. Odd since the event Monday which did some icing damage was barely discussedUs folks up here in the Mid Hudson Valley.... To say we want this is an understatement. Our biggest single snow event this winter has been 2 inches. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Us folks up here in the Mid Hudson Valley.... To say we want this is an understatement. Our biggest single snow event this winter has been 2 inches. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Hope you guys cash in. I think you might be very well be in the sweet spot of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Hope you guys cash in. I think you might be very well be in the sweet spot of the area.Thanks. Not sure really at all what to expect at this point. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Well said...also I don't recall a 5-7 day threat being discussed so vociferously. I mean weenie maps have been posted...even yesterday. You guys really must want this one. Odd since the event Monday which did some icing damage was barely discussed You're just now realizing that most of the people here want it to snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 WPC steps her right thru the Benchmark betcha dollars to doughnuts the 0z GFS does the same http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Well said...also I don't recall a 5-7 day threat being discussed so vociferously. I mean weenie maps have been posted...even yesterday. You guys really must want this one. Odd since the event Monday which did some icing damage was barely discussed It's a weather discussion board that talks about the weather! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Unless my eyes are lying,I see Greenland block on 00z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Ok....so...GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Unless my eyes are lying,I see Greenland block on 00z gfsThat is a greenland block Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 BIg rainstorm on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 BIg rainstorm on the GFS And here we go with emotional roller coaster. I'm just happy a storm is so consistent on the models. This ones locked and loaded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Comp Faster and Flat 18Z 0Z needs work ATM for the metro we will keep up with it its not far at all from the water and the benchmark jet flow -imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 P-GFS on the BM or slightly west http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 18, 2016 Author Share Posted February 18, 2016 That is a greenland blockThere is no Greenland block, not even close. That is a +NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 6Z GFS is a warm scraper. Another run, a different solution. As expected... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 There is no Greenland block, not even close. That is a +NAOLook at ALL guidance....there is ridging, even weak blocking now showing up day 5ish near Greenland. Is it transient? Does it aid us at all? Those are the questions of the hour.Most show the feature now but here's the EPS fwiw: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Did u peopleexpect the euro to stay MECS for 14 straight runs?...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 The Atlantic looks horrible and the over night guidance looks atrocious for snow with the next system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 oh the drama..LOL Negative Tilt Prog cold funnel to help with BM track blend the guidance not cherry pick some poor surface reflections this far out ...please step thru here http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/spag_f192_us.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 The Atlantic looks horrible and the over night guidance looks atrocious for snow with the next system And no 50/50. Storm has bad conditions and is getting too much hype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 And no 50/50. Storm has bad conditions and is getting too much hype. Still 6 days out. We just saw the gfs fo from an inland track to ots lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Eps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 ^ eps ensembles are everywhere.. From buffalo crush job, to Long Island special, and everywhere in between... Can we stop living and dying by each run, 6 days out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Also, we have seen good snowstorms in bad setups. So the lack of an NAO, etc.. Does hurt the cause but on no way shuts us out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 ^ eps ensembles are everywhere.. From buffalo crush job, to Long Island special, and everywhere in between... Can we stop living and dying by each run, 6 days out... Quick glance looks like majority of the eps lows are in the ocean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/trending-now/video/2430839568001/east-coast-storm-to-form-next- Want a good explanation watch Bernies morning video.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 The 0Z Euro is showing you what can happen with too much amplitude and the strong Western Atlantic Ridge pattern since late January. The trough goes neg tilt faster this run and pumps the WAR enough so the track has come west. Even the 0z UKMET came west since it goes neg tilt faster. EPS is all over the place. Final solution will not be solved until early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Wave 1 is interesting. Could be some snow for the area especially north and west. Para has it tracking over SNJ. EPS has it tracking under NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 The WAR/+NAO pattern is too strong right now for a super-amplified system. Your best hope is for the models to slow the neg tilt so the low slips east. A faster neg tilt like the 0z GFS...UKMET..Euro won't cut it in this pattern that has been in place since late January. Seasonal trends are important. FWIW (and I know you're just parroting what you read from real meteorologists and its them that should know better, not you), there is very little evidence for the importance of "seasonal trends". I.e., there is very little evidence that if models are behaving in a certain way in a given pattern, that you should expect them to continue to behave that way in a given pattern. This is not entirely true - certain patterns can interact with a known bias of a model in predictable ways - but big picture, the notion that you have to adjust a models output because, for instance, it's shown a SE bias with the last several storms, is not science-based. You'll make better forecasts if you don't make handwave adjustments to model output. That's why quantitative consensus forecasts outperform humans these days (to wit, the Weather Channel (quantitative) outperforming the NWS (qualitative/quantitative mix) for high temp forecasts; the model consensus (qualitative) outperforming the NHC (quantitative/qualitative mix) for hurricane track forecasts). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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