Superstorm93 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Lets not get too excited yet. Nice to see a storm on the models but let's remember this is a week away and there will be shifts in the storm track for many future model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Lets not get too excited yet. Nice to see a storm on the models but let's remember this is a week away and there will be shifts in the storm track for many future model runs. i agree, it will be tough for some of us that haven't even had a real snowstorm yet though so don't confuse our hope/enthusiasm for weeniesm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 also something to keep in mind that we've seen all year, this thing could really explode if it were depicted as the euro shows, Atlantic water temps for January were the warmest on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 4-8" or 5-10" depending on location. Heavier amounts the further North and West you travel. I prefer a dynamic ratio map... Means nothing at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1059 AM EST WED FEB 17 2016 VALID 12Z SAT FEB 20 2016 - 12Z WED FEB 24 2016 ...OVERVIEW... CONTINUE TO EXPECT INITIALLY LOW AMPLITUDE MEAN FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER 48 TO AMPLIFY SIGNIFICANTLY INTO A WRN RIDGE/ERN TROUGH PATTERN IN RESPONSE TO DEEP ERN PAC MEAN TROUGHING. THIS EVOLUTION WILL SUPPORT MEANINGFUL ERN U.S. STORM POTENTIAL BY NEXT TUE-WED... THOUGH CRUCIAL SHRTWV DETAILS ARE ON A SMALL ENOUGH SCALE THAT CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET THAT GREAT IN EXACTLY HOW THE SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE. ...GUIDANCE/UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT... DAYS 6-7 TUE-WED START WITH A 60/40 BLEND OF WPC CONTINUITY AND THE 00Z ECMWF MEAN... BASED ON GOOD ENSEMBLE MEAN CONSENSUS/CONTINUITY ACROSS THE ERN PAC/WRN NOAM AND PREFERENCE TO MAINTAIN A CONSISTENT AND INTERMEDIATE EVOLUTION FOR THE SYSTEM THAT MAY EVOLVE NEAR THE EAST COAST. SOME ASPECTS OF THE 00Z ECMWF BECOME PARTICULARLY QUESTIONABLE IN THIS TIME FRAME AS ITS NRN ROCKIES-PLAINS INTO SRN CANADA RIDGE ALOFT BECOMES EXTREMELY STRONG AND VERY LOCALLY TO THE POINT OF BEING AN OUTLIER RELATIVE TO THE FULL ENSEMBLE ENVELOPE. DIFFS IN HOW INCOMING WRN CONUS ENERGY AS OF MON AMPLIFIES INTO THE ERN MEAN TROUGH AND WHAT KIND OF INTERACTION THERE IS FROM CANADIAN FLOW CONTINUE TO RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW ERN U.S. LOW PRES WILL EVOLVE. MEMBERS FROM THE 00Z GEFS/ECMWF/CMC ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS ALL SHOW A VERY WIDE SPREAD BY DAY 7 WED... RANGING FROM THE LOWER HALF OF THE MS VLY TO WELL OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST. INDIVIDUAL GFS/ECMWF RUNS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE GENERALLY FOCUSING ON A TRACK CLOSE TO THE EAST COAST BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE DIFFS IN THE EXTENT OF NWD ELONGATION. LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN ANY ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO SUPPORTS MAINTAINING AN INTERMEDIATE SOLN AS CLOSE AS PSBL TO CONTINUITY. ALONG THE WEST COAST THERE IS CURRENTLY DECENT AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER SHRTWV EJECTING FROM THE ERN PAC MEAN TROUGH WILL ARRIVE AROUND 12Z WED. THE FACT THAT THIS ENERGY IS HEADING INTO A STRONG MEAN RIDGE SUPPORTS THE WEAKER ENSEMBLE MEANS AND 00Z-06Z GFS VERSUS THE 00Z ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 It's stupid to even put this much detail into a day 7 storm but temps crash 00z Wednesday. Anything before then is probably rain or taint for the coast. The good news is that everyone would flip to snow as the CCB cranks overhead and the storm eventually pulls away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 I also have about 4 storms worth of 150hr+ euro maps that say i should be buried in 4 feet...grain of salt ATM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 WPC Precip indicates a 6 -10 inch++ snowfall for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 WPC Precip indicates a 6 -10 inch++ snowfall for the area How do you know that's all snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 How do you know that's all snow? He's speculating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 IMO, all this tells us is a storm will form along the East Coast in a week. Where it goes from there (inland, coastal hugger, benchmark, OTS) is anybody's guess. In my experience, the big city storms are depicted mostly as all snow events or OTS (and then come back). Rarely have I seen big snows in NYC when the models ever show a snow to rain scenario. But I won't trust the snow output from any model until inside 48 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 One area of confidence I think we can agree is that this storm will unlikely head out to sea. It will either be a coastal or go inland. Anything is possible of course, but that is how I see it now. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 actually I ass-u-me it is - But I meant for most of the NYC metro I have no idea why you would make such a misleading post. The only model that brings significant snow to the immediate coast is the Euro and even that run verbatim wouldn't be more than a low end warning criteria event East of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 I have no idea why you would make such a misleading post. The only model that brings significant snow to the immediate coast is the Euro and even that run verbatim wouldn't be more than a low end warning criteria event East of the city. nobody said it would be more then a low end warning - and I am sure many of us would be happy with that - the thing to watch in the model runs is the North American view to see if any high lat blocking is going to develop that would help us out immensely with the cold air staying put...looks good for a + PNA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Banana shaped High Pressure always a good signal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 The eps is pretty clear that it does NOT favor an inland runner like the gfs and ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 I have no idea why you would make such a misleading post. The only model that brings significant snow to the immediate coast is the Euro and even that run verbatim wouldn't be more than a low end warning criteria event East of the city. The NUMBER 1 skill score model the PARA buries the coast with 12 - 16 it leaves the NW suburbs in the 2-4 area . The EPS is as good as is gets 7 days away . The UKMET at 144 is blend of the Euro and GFS and may look like the JMA . The GFS/CMC OPS are certainly W but don`t match the higher skill score models or it`s ensemble guidance . The GEPS is E of it`s OP . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Is it common like this to have a decent high pressure in the Atlantic, that ends up pushing the storms west almost at the last minute on the models, just about every storm since January?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/wx_maps/html/mslp_f192_us.html I don't know much but I know the good stuff...... :weenie: thats a three dog night right there cold tap looks fine from this angle----IMO--- recipe is on the page how will the cake turn out?? http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/wx_maps/html/spag_f216_us.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 A lot of volatility in the pattern here. Should be very interesting moving forward as both heat and cold sources battle with increased sun angle and warm SSTs giving more fuel to the fire. Snow or not, the atmosphere seems ripe for deepening cyclogenesis on the East Coast given increasingly large temperature contrasts and lots of energy coming through the pipeline. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Quit a few of the eps ensembles have 18+ area wide lol, nobody would be less than a foot on this board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 The NUMBER 1 skill score model the PARA buries the coast with 12 - 16 it leaves the NW suburbs in the 2-4 area . The EPS is as good as is gets 7 days away . The UKMET at 144 is blend of the Euro and GFS and may look like the JMA . The GFS/CMC OPS are certainly W but don`t match the higher skill score models or it`s ensemble guidance . The GEPS is E of it`s OP . For starters the PARA Euro has been highly unstable. It was terrible with the blizzard back in January. Secondly, I just went back and looked at the 00z Euro Para run and it barely has any measurable snow West of Long Island. It's a good run for New England and the east end, and an Eastern outlier at this point. Furthermore, we don't have the 12z run yet which could be completely different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Forgive me for asking, but what model is the EPS? I don't think I have heard of it before this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Forgive me for asking, but what model is the EPS? I don't think I have heard of it before this winter. It's the Ensemble Prediction System.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 It's the Ensemble Prediction System.... Ok, thanks. Is it out of the U.S.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Ok, thanks. Is it out of the U.S.? No european Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 No european Ok thanks all. Now I will understand what people are talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 50% swath at day 7 from the WPC..... uh huh someone call Commissioner Gordon http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml#day47 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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