Superstorm93 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 This is another case of not if a storm will happen, but where and what pieces get involved? The EPS has a ton of members that are inland runners/apps runners, and the hi-res GEFS are even further inland and look quite similar to the rest of the LR guidance. Its very, very early now but I would favor a coastal hugger or inland runner with this particular system due to the lack of confluence, the ridge axis out in the West being further west than what is needed, and the ridge out in front of our storm building, and slowly backing away. These can easily change, but thats just the way things look as of 12z today. Though, I wouldn't get too worried though since the GFS and ECM both show the potential for some pretty cold air to get involved even if this is a coastal hugger. All in all, there's an interesting threat on the horizon and we have something to track again. (Pretty good indications from the hi-res GEFS that a moisture-loaded system is in the works) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 This is another case of not if a storm will happen, but where and what pieces get involved? The EPS has a ton of members that are inland runners/apps runners, and the hi-res GEFS are even further inland and look quite similar to the rest of the LR guidance. Its very, very early now but I would favor a coastal hugger or inland runner with this particular system due to the lack of confluence, the ridge axis out in the West being further west than what is needed, and the ridge out in front of our storm building, and slowly backing away. These can easily change, but thats just the way things look as of 12z today. Though, I wouldn't get too worried though since the GFS and ECM both show the potential for some pretty cold air to get involved even if this is a coastal hugger. All in all, there's an interesting threat on the horizon and we have something to track again. (Pretty good indications from the hi-res GEFS that a moisture-loaded system is in the works) Where did you get that map from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Where did you get that map from? Looks likes it's am experimental model from nws Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/wx_maps/ http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/wx_maps/images/spag_f216_ussm.gif big cut off signal there...hows dat??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 sing weenies.... sing http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/wx_maps/ http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/wx_maps/images/spag_f216_ussm.gif spag_f216_ussm.gif Maps with no explanation or reasoning isnt helpful. And stick to the science, try to leave the other stuff out please. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 GFS OP lets just say a very nice signal.....atm BX says no mustard ...so no mustard http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=eus& pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016021700&fh=180&xpos=0&ypos=271 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 I know people have been a bit down on the Euro since it "missed" the shift northward for the recent blizzard (as did all the models, except the NAM, iirc). However, in the end it saw the shift and, more importantly, for a medium range threat like this, it locked in on that storm from a week or so out and didn't waver much - it always had it being a big snow maker for DC/Balt/Philly, all of which verified (it just missed the northern extent, which is a "small" error in the grand scheme of things for modeling). My main point is there's no model I'd rather have showing a snowstorm 8 days out than the Euro. Will be fun to watch this one evolve and go through all the usual gyrations. Given I have 30" this winter, which is a few inches above my seasonal average, in what might still be the warmest winter on record, anything additional is gravy for me (would be nice to see the NW folks cash in too). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 euro ens= thread worthy ,,,but thats just me GEFS for good measure WPC ext disco MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED STREAMSEPARATION AND POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM DEVELOPMENT INTHE 6-8 DAY TIME FRAME. WPC PROGS SHOW ONE SUCH SCENARIO DAYS6/7...BUT ENSEMBLE LOW CLUSTERING/SPREAD INDICATES THAT UNCERTAINWAVELENGTH SPACING OF IMPULSES WITHIN THE FLOW COULD CHANGE LOWEMPHASIS. http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd 06z GFS snow prog "the big one's lock in early" -anom Mt Airy Lodge FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 By the time the weekend hits I have a strong feeling it will get 2 'let's watch every single model run" and PBP heaven Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 that will change 10 or more times in the next week - have to watch out for the west trend and nothing to keep the HP in Canada locked in Not sure that I agree with this, we don't even have a 'lock' yet on this storm to begin with, let alone having to watch out for a "west trend". If anything, the ENS means (GEFS/GEPS/EPS) look like they have moved the storm farther off the coast last couple of runs. Admittedly though, I would much rather have a system shown OFF the coast at this range than a cutter or hugging the coast. To note, I hardly put any weight in the OP runs at this range....ENS are the way to go for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Not sure that I agree with this, we don't even have a 'lock' yet on this storm to begin with, let alone having to watch out for a "west trend". If anything, the ENS means (GEFS/GEPS/EPS) look like they have moved the storm farther off the coast last couple of runs. Admittedly though, I would much rather have a system shown OFF the coast at this range than a cutter or hugging the coast. To note, I hardly put any weight in the OP runs at this range....ENS are the way to go for now. 0z Para looks nice. Colder and further east than the op Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 For anyone who saw the 06z gefs, did the low stall basically just south of Nassau county? At about hour 180 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 How are we lookin on the 12 Z GFS folks? also did NAM say we can an inch or so Friday night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 How are we lookin on the 12 Z GFS folks? also did NAM say we can an inch or so Friday night? Nam has no snow totals south of 84, a very light dusty north and west of there, with 1-3" upstate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 In all and complete honesty,gfs is west at hour 168, pressure lower by 1 mb to 993. Mind you the lows placement at this time is down south still,by.. Georgia...rains stretch all the way to... freaking rain, snows at Canadian border.. waiting for rest too load.. Looks like a mess of a storm at this point lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 In all and complete honesty,gfs is west at hour 168, pressure lower by 1 mb to 993. Mind you the lows placement at this time is down south still,by.. Georgia...rains stretch all the way to... freaking rain, snows at Canadian border.. waiting for rest too load.. Looks like a mess of a storm at this point lol As long as storms there whatever outcome the models show right now are irrelevant... Watch ensembles instead... Watch the OPS around 3-4 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 The GFS having that wave Monday that basically the Euro hasn't shown once yet is a possible factor in deciding what it has unfolding with the following storm. If that Monday system doesn't occur everything else is likely different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 The GFS having that wave Monday that basically the Euro hasn't shown once yet is a possible factor in deciding what it has unfolding with the following storm. If that Monday system doesn't occur everything else is likely different If I'm not mistaken, Euro, cmc both doesn't show it.. or the jma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 If I'm not mistaken, Euro, cmc both doesn't show it.. or the jma The CMC has had it but I don't think any other model does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 3 and 4 runs ago,at hour 198 on 12Z, the low is no where near our area,it's will north and east! what a big swing west and slower since 18z Feb 16... but at 12z the low placement was in ocean I think near bench mark area roughly... Unless I'm missing something I think it's more realistic it's going be well east of current run, I hope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Just pattern recognition at this juncture. There is a storm, there is a potential for cold to mix in. Either aps runner or close to coast because of WAR. I like those odds & will be patient. This could be a doozy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 GFS is 36+ hours of moderate to heavy rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Lol the big snows are basically around areas line buffalo, maybe Albany.ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 The 12z GGEM is similar to the 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 The GFS run just looks strange to me. You have a low cutting into a banana high moving down from Canada? You would think in that kind of setup, it would be a Miller B scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Looking at the high in the Atlantic, up to this run it is the farthest east compared to runs back on the 15th.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 The main question with the timing of the neg tilt on the Euro is if it's hanging too much energy back so it lets the LP track further east of the 12z GFS. Pretty much an unknown quantity at this point. The whole EPS more east track was based on the base of the trough dragging its heels so the trough goes neg tilt later. 144 UKMET/EPS vs the GFS at 12z WAR much stronger on the GFS . I think it`s an error , it causes the GFS to neg tilt too fast . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 What what a monster...huge amounts of cold air around to the NW and moisture, someone from the Mid Atlantic Coast to the Great Lakes is going to get smoked... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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