EastonSN+ Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Yeah, you have to be concerned about the track hugging the coast more than people like to see with that +NAO and ridge off the East Coast. nao.sprd2.gif I agree the positive NAO creates some risk, but we have had so many snowstorms the last few years wthout an NAO that i am not too concerned yet. The Negative AO and positive PNA as well as the highs to the north and west should at least keep us in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 16, 2016 Author Share Posted February 16, 2016 It all depends on how amped up the system is in the day 8-10 day range. We had the -AO/-NAO for the blizzard back in January to prevent too close a hug to the coast. So the NW trend worked out big time for us since the system started out further SE in the longer range models. The UKMET system that came back west was weak enough not to hug and delivered a nice snowstorm to Long Island. The next storm that came NW was snow also but the system in the Lakes kept it a little too far east to really max out the potential. So the +NAO and Western Atlantic Ridge could raise concerns that an amplified system may come back to hug the coast. But a more strung out system in pieces could stay more suppressed and not come back too far west. Too soon tell how things will play out since over a week away. Also instead of a 50/50 low, there's a 50/50 high. I agree with PB, this may be one for the interior they want so bad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 GFS/GGEM and some other models show the possibility of another major/historic storm early-mid next week. All you can ask for at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Recent cold Temps wiped out the strong positive temp departures from earlier in the month...departure here after yesterday is now -1.2 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Recent cold Temps wiped out the strong positive temp departures from earlier in the month...departure here after yesterday is now -1.2 degrees. Yeah, the current -0.7 at NYC through the 15th would come out to a departure weighted 34.6 if the month which averages 35.3 continued with this departure. So if February finishes right on the 35.3 average, the winter would finish at 40.2. That would be an amazing contrast against the heaviest daily snowstorm in NYC on record in January and a 30"+ season. Not to mention the warmest winter to feature a below zero reading in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 The EPS have a strong storm signal day 8-10 along the East Coast. We just don't want the pattern so amped that the Western Atlantic Ridge pushes back again and the storm comes further west when we get closer like many of our storms have since late January. The WAR is already pretty strong on the day 10 EPS. So any increase puts the track further west than we are seeing at 0z. ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.png look what a newfoundland ridge is giving us today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Right now based on tendencies this winter the Monday event most certainly goes over or to our north as rain. Add in not just the Atlantic ridge but that most highs coming down from the Plains have been weaker and slower. Any model showing the mid week system as a miss should be taken lightly right now because that just screams of coming closer to the coast as everything has done all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 GFS was OTS For next weeks system. Plenty of time for that to change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 You want to see the EPS move in that direction so when it comes back west we'll be in the sweet spot. Less amped 7-10 days out is not a bad look for US if the EPS follows suit. Another key will be the keep the PNA in place . Look at the Euro BELOW and it maintains it`s heights into W Canada . Now look at the GFS at 180 it`s lining us up with the same look . But here at 204 a piece of the GOA low breaks off and breaks the ridge down and flattens the flow so SLP escapes E . The EURO maintains the look so you create height rises on the EC and LP comes . You will need to look at both coasts . Not just the WAR . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 West trend has been the big,I suppose help, in terms of storms giving snows to NYC,long Island, parts of Jersey and Hudson valley. Minus today storm of course. With that in mind, any signs or suggestions that the ridge in the Atlantic will go away at some point? It can only be around for so long I'd imagine right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 I'd like to see another big snowstorm but the chances of getting another one is not great...this winter like the 1982-83 winter was quite mild but had a major storm...It did not have a below zero day like this year did...I think we will have a colder March than 1983 had...March 1983 was very wet...If this March is wet the chances of snow goes up...1982-83 had a 17.6" storm in NYC and 9.6" from four other events adding up to 27.2" for the season...So far NYC has 31.2"...26.8" from the January blizzard and 4.4" from four other events...March 1983 was the wettest on record with an average temperature of 44.0...about +1.5 from todays normals...only a trace of snow was reported...It did get a measurable snow in April... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 12z euro is a costal hugger for the area next week. big hit for nw burbs. City and coast 4-8 then dry slot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 That april storm was a good one,never saw it so windy on the back side of a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 12z euro is a costal hugger for the area next week. big hit for nw burbs. City and coast 4-8 then dry slotGreat where I am. Too bad it's not going to verify from thus far out. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Not where I want to see a storm at the time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Not where I want to see a storm at the time period. We would do way better in that setup than yesterday if it happened as a hugger because the high position is so much better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Not where I want to see a storm at the time period. Agree . Just happy to see it on the EC and not in the OHV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Agree . Just happy to see it on the EC and not in the OHV What does 12z EPS show? Hopefully not amped, tucked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 What does 12z EPS show? Hopefully not amped, tucked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 What does 12z EPS show? Hopefully not amped, tucked in. Much better look, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/prec_f216_us.html Hug it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Snow accumulations through 192 hours: Source: Tropicaltidbits.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 that will change 10 or more times in the next week - have to watch out for the west trend and nothing to keep the HP in Canada locked in Snow accumulations through 192 hours: Source: Tropicaltidbits.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 that will change 10 or more times in the next week - have to watch out for the west trend and nothing to keep the HP in Canada locked in If the Arctic Oscillation dives more quickly and blocking develops more quickly, something closer to what the 12z EPS showed would be on the table. It's a little soon for me to speculate beyond the idea of the possibility of a significant storm around the 24th or 25th. Whether it would be a classic interior storm, coastal storm, or bring widespread significant snowfall to both areas remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 16, 2016 Author Share Posted February 16, 2016 The pattern right after the storm next week into March looks better for snow in our area than next week does. Assuming the models are right in the long range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Remember this is 1 op run 8 days out. The features that are missing may materialize over time . Or maybe not , the point is put up the GFS at 12z vs the 18z and see what the model just did in 6 hour before you worry about hour 186. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 GFS Global Loop http://climate.cod.edu/hanis/model/mod/index.php?type=18-GFS-WLD-850-temp-0-0 should pacify most of the weens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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