MJO812 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 The real big problem is that the NAO stays positive, no 50/50 low and the strong WAR hangs tough. If a trough deepens in that setup and a shortwave amplifies next week, you have today and tomorrow (cutter) all over again, except without the extreme cold this week had. In that pattern, with no Atlantic blocking, any disturbance that really amps up with a trough turning neutral to negative is going to be a cutter, as we saw today. MJO is going into 7 and 8. The pattern going into the end of the month looks a lot better than what we have now. EPS is hinting at a coastal towards the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 The EPO goes downhill towards the end of the month ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png 1980s anf 90s all over again What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 The EPO goes downhill towards the end of the month ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png What? Well over 30"s here on the season. And we are still in the most favorable time of year for snow at the coast. And this is still way out there I'll take 95-96 every year!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Well over 30"s here on the season. And we are still in the most favorable time of year for snow at the coast. And this is still way out there I'll take 95-96 every year!!! This winter has not been good at all except for the big blizzard. Take away that and most of us in NYC would have only about 5 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 This winter has not been good at all except for the big blizzard. Take away that and most of us in NYC would have only about 5 inches of snow. I have 15" from other events. Overall snow wise 15" and a 24" blizzard not bad at all. Nassau county is doing better then almost all of Vermont outside of super high elevations. That's got to have odds of several hundred years to one this late in the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 The EPO goes downhill towards the end of the month ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png What? 1980s and 1990s had a lot of cutting storms following frigid air.Is the epo going strongly negative? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Euripides Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Considering how warm November, December and even parts of early January were. Getting the blizzard was a nice bonus and anything else is gravy considering how bad the pattern and setup was/is. Think how the people N&W feel with almost nothing for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 The real big problem is that the NAO stays positive, no 50/50 low and the strong WAR hangs tough. If a trough deepens in that setup and a shortwave amplifies next week, you have today and tomorrow (cutter) all over again, except without the extreme cold this week had. In that pattern, with no Atlantic blocking, any disturbance that really amps up with a trough turning neutral to negative is going to be a cutter, as we saw today. Disagree . Here was the old day 10 that showed this would cut . Look at where the ridge is tomorrow vs Day 10 Day 10 EPS 9 days ago . Here is the day 10 EPS The Euro does not cut this . The WAR is just far enough E to allow to slip to the E coast . Look at the ridge extend over the pole vs the split flow from 10 days ago . Different set up on the EC . It is 10 days away , but the Euro did a good job here in it`s L/R Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Gfs has a big storm next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Gfs has a big storm next week Yep, another Miller A. Hopefully the high stays put as shown so most of it is frozen. Would be a neat way to close out Met winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 1980s anf 90s all over again If thats the case I wouldn't be sitting at 9.6" ytd lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Fwit GGEM does not have the storm yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Looking forward to the next week according to GFS we get a SECS take a look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Looking forward to the next week according to GFS we get a SECS take a look Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Let's see how it looks on Friday. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Hopefully EUR and GGEM take hold too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Hey Guys, Now that we have a storm entering the near-term, feel free to check out my tool that compares real-time radar to simulated radar data from the HRRR and NAM4km! www.jmmweather.com/NAM4km.html Thanks! this is a great page, thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Yep, another Miller A. Hopefully the high stays put as shown so most of it is frozen. Would be a neat way to close out Met winter. Another Miller A? Are you referring to the Jan 23/24 blizzard as the previous one? If so, I have read a CWG article referring to the Jan 23/24 blizzard as a Miller B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Another Miller A? Are you referring to the Jan 23/24 blizzard as the previous one? If so, I have read a CWG article referring to the Jan 23/24 blizzard as a Miller B.Is this for sure? I think I read on here about it being a Miller A. Miller Bs usually don't pan out like that.Storm is still there on the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Is this for sure? I think I read on here about it being a Miller A. Miller Bs usually don't pan out like that. Storm is still there on the 18z GFS. I was surprised to have read the article too. Ill find the article and post as an edit.Here: Fourth paragraph in https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/02/03/coastal-storm-possible-early-next-week-but-its-too-soon-to-say-rain-snow-or-mix/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 I was surprised to have read the article too. Ill find the article and post as an edit. Here: Fourth paragraph inhttps://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/02/03/coastal-storm-possible-early-next-week-but-its-too-soon-to-say-rain-snow-or-mix/ Interesting, thanks. Wasn't the second big snow in 2010 also a Miller B? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Interesting, thanks. Wasn't the second big snow in 2010 also a Miller B? 2010 was a train station of Miller B's, the middle Atlantic cashed in on all of them. You're right usually they get screwed big time and someone up here gets on the wrong side of the cut off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Btw Sunday's departure was -28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 KFOX was -7 at midnight last night and hit a high of 48 tonight before midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 KFOX was -7 at midnight last night and hit a high of 48 tonight before midnight. Land of the fake cold!!! Regardless that would be impressive in some chinook wind places like on the high plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 EPS DAY 9/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 EPS DAY 9/10 SO another cold shot and then spring should be nosing its way in if I am reading this right. So we might not be done with winter events just yet. Would like to see another "real" snow ( we had numerous events like this last one over the years ) without a change to rain before the winter ends. Won't bet against that just yet. Well, this winter was anything but boring so far, but in reality, it has been tame for northern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 KFOX was -7 at midnight last night and hit a high of 48 tonight before midnight. ...WOW!..a 55 degree spread..luv living in the 'fake' cold zone..some impressive low temps.I got below zero for 2 consecutive nights here..ponds and even the bay froze up.. enough to play some pond hockey on sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 The EPS have a strong storm signal day 8-10 along the East Coast. We just don't want the pattern so amped that the Western Atlantic Ridge pushes back again and the storm comes further west when we get closer like many of our storms have since late January. The WAR is already pretty strong on the day 10 EPS. So any increase puts the track further west than we are seeing at 0z. ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.png I like the ridge over the top and in front of it . We always run the risk of something hugging with that ridge sitting there to the E . If i were in the interior this would be the one I would key on . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 I like the ridge over the top and in front of it . We always run the risk of something hugging with that ridge sitting there to the E . If i were in the interior this would be the one I would key on . the ao forecast is for a dip in the index late February...It could be a strong block again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 SO another cold shot and then spring should be nosing its way in if I am reading this right. So we might not be done with winter events just yet. Would like to see another "real" snow ( we had numerous events like this last one over the years ) without a change to rain before the winter ends. Won't bet against that just yet. Well, this winter was anything but boring so far, but in reality, it has been tame for northern areas. Those maps show nothing about spring nosing in fwiw. Those are h5 maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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