Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

February 2016 Forecasts/Disco/Obs


snowman19

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Just updated.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

757 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND OFFSHORE SUNDAY

NIGHT. THE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AWAY INTO THE ATLANTIC

MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS TO THE WEST. THIS LOW

TRAVELS TO NEAR OR OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND INTO THE CANADIAN

MARITIMES TUESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER LOW MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY INTO

WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NEXT

WEEK...ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

FORECAST MAINLY ON TRACK. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS

A FEW DEGREES LOWER TO BETTER MATCH OBSERVED TRENDS. ADJUSTED

CLOUDS HIGHER SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND WHERE THERE IS MORE

INSTABILITY FROM THE RELATIVELY WARMER OCEAN TEMPERATURES.

ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO THE AREA TNGT. PW/S DROP

TO BLW 5 HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE...SO WILL KEEP

THE FCST DRY. THE STRONG WINDS WILL KEEP GOING RIGHT THRU THE NGT.

PEAK GUST POTENTIAL THRU ABOUT 3Z...THEN WINDS ALOFT GRADUALLY

DECLINE INTO SUN MRNG. NO CHANGES TO THE WIND CHILL PRODUCTS

TNGT...ALTHOUGH THE WRNG APPEARS TO BE MRGNL ALONG THE COAST.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'd agree, I think we were lucky to get the KU storm ( realizing not everyone here did ) and while I wouldn't rule anything out, I think winter has shot its wad after this weekend. Last week of Feb and first week of March can deliver, but more often than not, it's time to break out the rain galoshes and start putting new lines on the fishing reels, while prepping the garden for cold weather crops. Most years in the 80's I would be on the water the first week of March catching flounder.

Not close! Pd services still projecting a bit colder than norm n Snowier thru March! Keep your shovels handy!

Sent from my XT1565 using Tapatalk

Link to comment
Share on other sites

06z gfs drops the trough back into the east after next weekend. Active northern steam to boot. Anyone check out the ensembles?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

00z Euro ensembles has west coast ridging day 10, looks like it's trying to link up with ridging near the pole day 11-15. Trough in the east. Here's day 10, 11-15 looks even better.

 

post-4973-0-21871100-1455464219_thumb.pn

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'd agree, I think we were lucky to get the KU storm ( realizing not everyone here did ) and while I wouldn't rule anything out, I think winter has shot its wad after this weekend. Last week of Feb and first week of March can deliver, but more often than not, it's time to break out the rain galoshes and start putting new lines on the fishing reels, while prepping the garden for cold weather crops. Most years in the 80's I would be on the water the first week of March catching flounder.

yup me too...the first few sunny milder days, i had access to a great spot at the entrance to the port chester yacht club...worms and fresh bank mussels would rouse a few sleepy flatties from the mud

Link to comment
Share on other sites

yup me too...the first few sunny milder days, i had access to a great spot at the entrance to the port chester yacht club...worms and fresh bank mussels would rouse a few sleepy flatties from the mud

It's a damn shame we lost so many fisheries, there was nothing tastier than a spring flattie rolled in Italian bread crumbs and deep fried. You just couldn't eat a fish from  a restaurant after that. Gone are the flounder, whiting, and numerous other fisheries. Used to fish for the whiting with ice on the rails. I never went for cod, didn't have the stones for that, mid winter offshore...yikes! But that is one fishery that seems to be coming back. The rest? Fuggedabout it, as my old pals at Scags Bait and tackle used to say.....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's a damn shame we lost so many fisheries, there was nothing tastier than a spring flattie rolled in Italian bread crumbs and deep fried. You just couldn't eat a fish from  a restaurant after that. Gone are the flounder, whiting, and numerous other fisheries. Used to fish for the whiting with ice on the rails. I never went for cod, didn't have the stones for that, mid winter offshore...yikes! But that is one fishery that seems to be coming back. The rest? Fuggedabout it, as my old pals at Scags Bait and tackle used to say.....

starting to see a few more whiting in places that they were common years ago but its still a shadow of its former self and the flounders seemed to vanish for all intents and purposes within a couple years back in the early 90s. as someone who does a lot of hook and line fishing for cod...mostly south of block island and out on coxes ledge, i can tell you there are definitely more cod around than what scientists think and cod fish have shown in respectable numbers over the past few years in old school ny bight areas like 17 fathoms cholera the farms scottland etc never mind being found in much better numbers on the offshore wrecks to the south and east of nyc/nj and li...

 

i agree with you that fresh caught winter flounder is about as good as it gets for finfish table fare in the northeast...fluke do not even come close i do not care what anyone says...

 

hopefully some good winter weather still awaits all of us here in the northeast :)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's a damn shame we lost so many fisheries, there was nothing tastier than a spring flattie rolled in Italian bread crumbs and deep fried. You just couldn't eat a fish from  a restaurant after that. Gone are the flounder, whiting, and numerous other fisheries. Used to fish for the whiting with ice on the rails. I never went for cod, didn't have the stones for that, mid winter offshore...yikes! But that is one fishery that seems to be coming back. The rest? Fuggedabout it, as my old pals at Scags Bait and tackle used to say.....

Man I miss some of those.  Growing up on LI we used to get all sorts of fresh fish from the docks in Freeport and occasionally we'd go out to Captree too.  I miss the fresh flounder the most I think.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

..right down the street is moriches bay..once the flounder capital of the world..no mas!

sooo many reasons why that fishery collapsed...however..the bay still produces its fair share 

of fluke and this past summer blowfish returned..

so many reasons agreed, but never to return to the coastal waters again...science is only now finding that the winter flounders are actually thriving farther outside where they stand a better chance of long term survival

 

 i used to have old copies of the li fisherman from the early 70s and used to love reading about the great early spring flounder fishing from the shinnecock canal

Link to comment
Share on other sites

so many reasons agreed, but never to return to the coastal waters again...science is only now finding that the winter flounders are actually thriving farther outside where they stand a better chance of long term survival

 

 i used to have old copies of the li fisherman from the early 70s and used to love reading about the great early spring flounder fishing from the shinnecock canal

...ah yes..great memories..now back to the weather...currently 0* here in eastport...guess

we're going below zero again.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

so many reasons agreed, but never to return to the coastal waters again...science is only now finding that the winter flounders are actually thriving farther outside where they stand a better chance of long term survival

 

 i used to have old copies of the li fisherman from the early 70s and used to love reading about the great early spring flounder fishing from the shinnecock canal

3 things....seals seals seals!!!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

so many reasons agreed, but never to return to the coastal waters again...science is only now finding that the winter flounders are actually thriving farther outside where they stand a better chance of long term survival

 

 i used to have old copies of the li fisherman from the early 70s and used to love reading about the great early spring flounder fishing from the shinnecock canal

Those old Fishermans were classics, I had a long association with Jersey edition for many years, contributing many articles about Raritan Bay. We held onto the winter flatties here until the mid-aughts, when they shut us down to two fish per day. But the real tragedy was Quincy MA, where you once could walk across the flounder they were so thick. So now I sit here following winter weather. Here's to one more good snow before I till up the garden.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Although the pna and mjo look favorable, I am concerned about the AO which looks to remain slightly positive.

The real big problem is that the NAO stays positive, no 50/50 low and the strong WAR hangs tough. If a trough deepens in that setup and a shortwave amplifies next week, you have today and tomorrow (cutter) all over again, except without the extreme cold this week had. In that pattern, with no Atlantic blocking, any disturbance that really amps up with a trough turning neutral to negative is going to be a cutter, as we saw today.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The real big problem is that the NAO stays positive, no 50/50 low and the strong WAR hangs tough. If a trough deepens in that setup and a shortwave amplifies next week, you have today and tomorrow (cutter) all over again, except without the extreme cold this week had. In that pattern, with no Atlantic blocking, any disturbance that really amps up with a trough turning neutral to negative is going to be a cutter, as we saw today.

1980s anf 90s all over again

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...