snowman19 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Since we are only 5 days away from February I figured I'd start a thread. Post away guys.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Since we are only 5 days away from February I figured I'd start a thread. Post away guys.... Why don`t you start us off . I am interested to hear your thoughts on Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Previously, some of the guidance had suggested the potential for an appreciable or greater snowfall around 1/29. Since then the guidance has backed off with the consensus favoring a storm passing well offshore so as to avoid any meaningful snowfall in the New York City area. This outcome is consistent with the return of the positive Arctic Oscillation (AO). The January 27 AO figure was +2.053. It is forecast to remain generally positive to strongly positive over the next 10-15 days. As a result, the probability of a significant snowfall for the New York City area will be much lower than it would be during an AO-. Such a probability is not zero. For example, February 4, 1995 saw 10.8" snow fall in NYC when the AO was +2.328 (and falling). However, if one looks back to past El Niño cases when the AO reached or exceeded +1.500 during the January 25-February 10 period (as shown on the ensembles), such a development occurred in 1983, 1992, 1995, and 2003. Both February 1983 and 2003 were much snowier than average on account of major snowstorms. In sum, even as the forecast pattern reduces prospects of a significant snowfall for the time being, it does not preclude the idea that February could wind up snowier or even much snowier than normal. The return of blocking may hold the proverbial key to February's snowfall outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 some NYC February stats...so far the last six February's are averaging 33.3 thanks to last years third coldest on record...since 2010 February is averaging 16.1" of snow...the 1980's averaged 5.4"...the average max is the lowest since the 1920's...2010's max was 46 and last year 43...Decade averages...decade..ave.t...high....low.....ave max/min...max....min....snowfall...big snow...precipitation...1870's....30.6....37.0....25.2..........................69......-1........9.3"......11.0"......2.71"1880's....30.5....37.2....22.7....55.2......4.5....69......-4........7.9"........9.0"......4.07"1890's....31.9....37.9....24.1....54.6......6.2....68......-6......10.1"......16.0"......3.65"1900's....29.4....37.7....24.8....52.2......6.8....62.......1........9.3"......11.0"......3.54"1910's....30.4....35.9....25.4....55.5......4.8....62......-6........7.5"........9.7"......3.44"1920's....32.1....37.9....26.2....54.3......8.7....64......-2......12.2"......17.5"......4.32"1930's....32.5....37.0....19.9....58.7......7.8....75.....-15.......7.6"......10.0"......3.13"1940's....32.6....38.6....29.3....58.1......9.7....73......-8........8.9"......10.7"......2.53"1950's....35.1....40.1....27.4....58.5....10.1....71.......0........4.0"........7.9"......2.73"1960's....32.6....36.7....28.3....56.1......8.4....65......-2......10.1"......17.4"......3.31"1970's....32.6....39.9....25.5....58.7......8.6....70.......0........9.9"......17.7"......3.69"1980's....35.4....40.6....31.4....60.9....13.0....75.......4........5.4"......17.6"......3.08"1990's....36.3....40.6....30.6....62.5....11.0....72.......5........8.7"......12.8"......2.99"2000's....35.2....40.6....28.2....59.7....13.8....68.......8......10.1"......26.9"......2.64"2010's....33.2....40.9....23.9....54.8....13.3....67.......2......16.1"......20.9"......3.88"1880-2009......32.7....38.4....26.4....57.3......8.7....69......-1........8.6"......13.9......3.27"1980-09..35.6....40.6....30.1....61.0....12.6....72.......6........8.1"......19.1".....2.90"Coldest.........Warmest.........Wettest..........Driest...........snowiest19.9 in 1934...40.9 in 2012...6.87" in 1869...0.46" in 1895...36.9" in 201022.7 in 1885...40.6 in 1998...6.83" in 1896...0.55" in 1901...29.0" in 201423.9 in 2015...40.6 in 1984...6.69" in 2010...0.71" in 2002...27.9" in 193424.1 in 1895...40.6 in 2002...6.41" in 1920...0.93" in 2009...26.9" in 200624.8 in 1905...40.1 in 1954...6.20" in 1939...0.94" in 1892...26.4" in 199425.2 in 1875...40.0 in 1997...6.14" in 1893...1.01" in 1987...26.3" in 192625.4 in 1904...40.0 in 1991...6.04" in 1981...1.04" in 1980...26.1" in 200325.4 in 1914...39.9 in 1976...6.01" in 1915...1.13" in 1968...25.3" in 192025.5 in 1979...39.8 in 1990...5.96" in 1887...1.24" in 1877...25.3" in 189925.7 in 1936...39.3 in 1981...5.95" in 2008...1.29" in 1872...23.6" in 1967Highest temperatures...75 in 1930 2/2575 in 1985 2/2473 in 1949 2/1572 in 1997 2/2771 in 1954 2/1670 in 1976 2/2570 in 1991 2/570 in 1985 2/23Coldest temperatures...-15 in 1934 2/9-8 in 1943 2/15-7 in 1934 2/8-6 in 1899 2/10-6 in 1918 2/5-5 in 1896 2/17-4 in 1886 2/5-4 in 1895 2/6-4 in 1873 2/24Coldest monthly max...41 in 197841 in 190542 in 193442 in 1901 43 in 201544 in 196944 in 192346 in 201046 in 192446 in 189546 in 1885Warmest monthly minimum...22 in 192720 in 201219 in 189719 in 196419 in 198219 in 200019 in 200218 in 198618 in 196018 in 195718 in 1932Biggest snowfalls...26.9" in 2006 2/11-1220.9" in 2010 2/25-2619.8" in 2003 2/16-1717.7" in 1978 2/6-717.6" in 1983 2/11-1217.5" in 1920 2/4-717.4" in 1961 2/3-416.0" in 1899 2/12-1315.3" in 1969 2/9-1012.8" in 1994 2/1112.7" in 1979 2/1912.5" in 1921 2/2012.5" in 1967 2/7 12.5" in 2014 2/13-1412.0" in 1926 2/9-10 11.4" in 2013 2/8-911.0" in 1876 2/3-411.0" in 1907 2/4-510.8" in 1995 2/410.7" in 1947 2/20-2110.7" in 1996 2/16-1710.4" in 1926 2/3-410.0" in 1902 2/1710.0" in 1933 2/1110.0" in 2010 2/9-10least snowiest...0 in 1998...T in 2002T in 1981T in 1971T in 1938 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 FEB 1- 4 will be UGLY . Say goodbye to the pack . The cold returns around the 5th or so . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 February looks to start off with quite the torch. Highs could crack the 60 degree mark next Tuesday ahead of a cold front. After the warm up, a deep trough should move into the Eastern US and deliver seasonably, and perhaps even below seasonably cold temperatures with a potential storm chance around the 6th/7th as pieces of energy attempt to dive down the backside of the trough. That storm chance would also correlate with a rebounding NAO which is forecasted to drop to near neutral around the end of week 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 February looks to start off with quite the torch. Highs could crack the 60 degree mark next Tuesday ahead of a cold front. After the warm up, a deep trough should move into the Eastern US and deliver seasonably, and perhaps even below seasonably cold temperatures with a potential storm chance around the 6th/7th as pieces of energy attempt to dive down the backside of the trough. That storm chance would also correlate with a rebounding NAO which is forecasted to drop to near neutral around the end of week 1. Moved for Mr Yanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Goddamnit rjay lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Look familiar ? Further S this time . Expect an arctic outbreak a few days after if this happens . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Frist 3-4 days not good, but after that I think we have the opportunity for a prolonged snowy/cold period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 That's a recipe for another rapidly changing pattern from warm to cold after the cutter pulls the trough back into the East. Agree , we are spiking the AO / then crash it back to N . That will push that Arctic air S . If we lay any snow cover it will stick around . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 BEAUTIFUL EPS DAY 10 -15 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Was just gonna post about it. It looked great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 BEAUTIFUL EPS DAY 10 -15 . Looks great. Winter returns post Feb 5 with staying power. Epo and pna ridge hooks up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 BN 850's days 7.5-15 every single day on EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Frist 3-4 days not good, but after that I think we have the opportunity for a prolonged snowy/cold period. If this month is any indication, that is not in the cards for this winter. The below-normal cold only seems to stick around for a few days at most. Look at this month: First below normal stretch started on Jan 4: 1/4: 36/14 1/5: 29/11 1/6: 41/25 1/7: 46/31 Two below normal days The next period was Jan 13-14 1/13: 30/22 1/14: 38/22 15: 51/34 Two below normal days A few days later..: 1/18: 31/18 1/19: 28/16 1/20: 37/27 1/21: 36/26 1/22: 30/21 1/23: 27/24 (Blizz of '16) 1/24: 35/20 1/25: 39/28 That was basically the longest period of cold snow, and it lasted about 7 days. Granted, we got the (arguably) largest snowstorm in NYC history, which was awesome. This is not going to be a winter of prolonged cold, but as shown above, all you need is a few days with some good timing, and we can get some major snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Also, I hate to say it, but 15 days from now is entering into mid Feb, and by then, winter's clock really starts ticking. Hopefully we get another good STJ-catalyzed snow before it's all said and done. <sarcasm>we do get that extra day in Feb though!! </sarcasm> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Not only does the 12Z EPS look good late, check out the Para EPS 46 day. Looks like an Aleutian low and +PNA/-EPO ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 If this month is any indication, that is not in the cards for this winter. The below-normal cold only seems to stick around for a few days at most. Look at this month: First below normal stretch started on Jan 4: 1/4: 36/14 1/5: 29/11 1/6: 41/25 1/7: 46/31 Two below normal days The next period was Jan 13-14 1/13: 30/22 1/14: 38/22 15: 51/34 Two below normal days A few days later..: 1/18: 31/18 1/19: 28/16 1/20: 37/27 1/21: 36/26 1/22: 30/21 1/23: 27/24 (Blizz of '16) 1/24: 35/20 1/25: 39/28 That was basically the longest period of cold snow, and it lasted about 7 days. Granted, we got the (arguably) largest snowstorm in NYC history, which was awesome. This is not going to be a winter of prolonged cold, but as shown above, all you need is a few days with some good timing, and we can get some major snow. FEB is starting to look like a mini FEB 2014 to me . The PV ( ITS COMING ) may center itself through the GLK/OHV/SE and after FEB 1-4 which will be AN ,I think we lock into a colder pattern for 15 days . So FEB 5 - 20 is BN . I am not sure of the monthly departure yet , I really cant see between the 20 - 29 although the PARA look fine through the 22nd . But the 15 day period I am looking at may be COLD/SNOWY . The core of the coldest against the norms will be W/SW of us . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Weeklies look great -epo +Pna +Nao Throughout the entire run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 FEB is starting to look like a mini FEB 2014 to me . The PV ( ITS COMING ) may center itself through the GLK/OHV/SE and after FEB 1-4 which will be AN ,I think we lock into a colder pattern for 15 days . So FEB 5 - 20 is BN . I am not sure of the monthly departure yet , I really cant see between the 20 - 29 . But the 15 day period I am looking at may be COLD/SNOWY . The core of the coldest against the norms will be W/SW of us . Well, here come the news stories about the Polar Vortex once again lol Also, how cold was February 2014? Obviously not as bad as 2015, but I do recall that big storm we had. 16.1 inches here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Yeah, the EPS are really bullish on maintaining that very strong block centered over the pole north of Alaska until further notice. The sharp warm up in the first few days of February should turn colder as the trough gets pulled into the East following the cutter. Agree , it`s going to lock off for a while and could snow on either side of the Arctic intrusion . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masomenos Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 The next cold pattern doesn't look anywhere near as promising as this just past one, but with the amount of juice in the atmosphere, as we saw last week, all it will take to make Feb a good month is a little favorable timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Yeah, even the week 4 EPS is still showing the same pattern. That look would argue for more of a trough in the East like we have discussed in the past. WSI twitter freebie EPS.jpg Looks like one cold HP system after another with direct discharges of Arctic air . The coldest air relative to averages will head into the midwest /lakes /OHV then east . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Mike Ventrice on Twitter Remember last February? A top 5 cold month for many states in the NE? Late Feb forecast pattern extremely similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Way out in la la land but this kind of goes along with my thinking of a threat around mid-month. Kind of the same problem that we had today this run but I think this period bears watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Today's 12Z Op GFS is a great example of why you do not use Op Runs far out. From 280-384 it more or less matches 2 of the 12 members on the last nights 00Z ensembles. All others have a deep eastern trof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Today's 12Z Op GFS is a great example of why you do not use Op Runs far out. From 280-384 it more or less matches 2 of the 12 members on the last nights 00Z ensembles. All others have a deep eastern trof Agree , D 10-15 EPS/GEPS/6ZGEFS . All see the deep trough in the E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 29, 2016 Author Share Posted January 29, 2016 Don Sutherland had a detailed disco in the main forum on where he thinks we may be headed for February earlier on this morning. Good read. Link: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47332-winter-2015-2016-medium-term-discussion/page-6? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 ^^^ Good analysis that highlights the uncertainty moving forward. February should be more of a mixed bag if climo is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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