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The Biggest Loser

snowgeek

By snowgeek,
in New England

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted

A better way to try and gauge it would be how anomalous it is...standard dev.

 

It's more common for an area that averages 50" to be at single digit percent of snowfall to date than some area that averages 100"+.

 

 

I.E., I'd bet it is more anomalous for some 2000 foot ridge in the Taconics to be at 18" on the season than it is for a place like CEF to be at 3" on the season. Even though CEF's number might be a smaller percent of normal.

Would that be because CEF is more prone to ratters than the ridge line?

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J.Spin

J.Spin

Posted
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I'd imagine all of NNE is in the same boat.

 

I'm at 26", J.Spin is at 38", Tamarack is at 20", Dendrite at 13",  Eyewall at 18" in BTV.

 

Seems relative to our seasonal averages that's probably pretty equal.

 

We did get a 6" event last week from the inverted trough and upslope (J.Spin had 11" on 0.6" liquid I think), but nothing since then.

 

I consider it a win that the grass has been covered since December 28th with a snow depth that hit 10" a week or so ago.

 

Taking the numbers from yesterday, 2015-2016 season snowfall was at 38.4” vs. a mean of 78.8”, so 48.7% of average.  We’re actually only running about 10 inches behind where 2006-2007 was at this point of the season, so the current snowfall deficit is still nothing insurmountable, but we’d have to have a strong second half of the season to catch up to 2006-2007.  As we know, that season had an extremely strong stretch for its last couple of months, with roughly 100 inches here in the valley from mid-February onward.  We’re still a few weeks away from mid-February though, so this season actually has more time to go than the short period in which 2006-2007 made its run.

 

On an interesting note, tomorrow marks the exact halfway point in the snowfall season at our site using the numbers in my data set.  So, if we were to have an average season going forward, that would mean roughly another 80 inches of snow, which would actually just edge out 2011-2012 in terms of total snowfall.  Can we have at least an average second half of the season?  I guess we’ll have to see.

 

We’re currently running in the bottom 4 to 5% of seasons here according to my records, and having looked at some of those horrid snow depth plots for bad seasons on the Mt. Mansfield, I’d always shuddered at the thought of what the skiing would be like.  Truth be told though, I had some great powder skiing over the weekend, both in the backcountry at Bolton Valley on Saturday, and then lift-served at Stowe on Sunday.  The base is not yet deep enough for Stowe’s steepest off piste terrain, but there’s plenty of natural base for most moderate and low-angle terrain.  Honestly, if this is how bad it gets once every 20 to 25 years, we should definitely count ourselves pretty lucky.  Those who are real avid about getting out into that steepest of off piste terrain probably won’t have quite the same take on where we stand, but we’re really doing well compared to the region down near Southern Vermont.  When we’ve had almost twice the amount of snowfall at our house at 500’ vs. Mount Snow at 3,000’, you know that area is struggling.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Would that be because CEF is more prone to ratters than the ridge line?

 

 

Yeah their variance is higher from a percent standpoint.

 

An extreme example is this....what is more anomalous, DCA having 0.1" of snow thus far or your BY having only 4"? DCA has a lower percent of normal in that scenario. But your 4" is probably more anomalous because DCA tends to rely on a decent sized system or two to get a chunk of their snow, and their standard dev is a higher percent of their annual average than your is. Your worst season is probably like 30% of your annual average (20" or so?) while DCA's worst seasons are almost 0% of their average.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

I was thinking that that wasn't horrible, as well.

Yeah and it wouldn't be all that hard with a active snowy second half for BTV to make up a 20" deficit. That's the real trick, is looking at places that could get back to normal snow with one huge bomb.

Like BTV can make up 20" in even one storm if it broke right, or a very snowy week. Whereas here at the mountain where we are 100" behind, even though the percentages are kind of similar for MMNV1 vs BTV, it's going to take one heck of a pattern to make up 100" while keeping pace with normal (which is around 2" per day right now).

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adk

adk

Posted
Posted

it's going to take one heck of a pattern to make up 100" while keeping pace with normal (which is around 2" per day right now).

 

A man can dream....

 

Also, there is an absolutely ZERO chance that Burlington has seen 18" of snow this year. That's from perfect measurement on a snowboard counting every farted out flake before it has a second to compress.  If it has even snowed 10" on the ground at my condo I'd be shocked. 

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wxeyeNH

wxeyeNH

Posted
Posted

I don't keep very good records but I am at around 11" or so.  I'm at 1100 feet in Central NH about 25 miles NNW of Dendrite.  I would guess I average 85" per year.  Pretty amazing.  Grass begining to appear.  By next week the deer will be feasting on long buried apples if this keeps up.

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted

Coming out of region but the northern tier of PA and southern tier of NY have definitely been miserable so far.

 

AVP:

 

attachicon.gifavpsnowfall2601.png

 

BGM:

 

attachicon.gifbgmsnowfall2601.png

 

Not the lowest compared toseason-to-date, but AVP snow lovers must be hurting the most.  I cannot imagine a 2" synoptic event while 50 miles south (Allentown) records 32".

 

My 21.6" is 53% of YTD and 24% of winter avg, so I'm out of the running, somewhere between mediocre and all-time awful.

 

 

A better way to try and gauge it would be how anomalous it is...standard dev.

 

It's more common for an area that averages 50" to be at single digit percent of snowfall to date than some area that averages 100"+.

 

With records 1939 on, CAR's long term average is 113", and their lowest season ever (1943-44) had 59".  They've never recorded a season with less than half their average.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted

Yeah their variance is higher from a percent standpoint.

 

An extreme example is this....what is more anomalous, DCA having 0.1" of snow thus far or your BY having only 4"? DCA has a lower percent of normal in that scenario. But your 4" is probably more anomalous because DCA tends to rely on a decent sized system or two to get a chunk of their snow, and their standard dev is a higher percent of their annual average than your is. Your worst season is probably like 30% of your annual average (20" or so?) while DCA's worst seasons are almost 0% of their average.

Yea...I have 9" now, but your point remains.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

I thought we were having a rough go of it in NNE, but man those areas in western SNE that are at 3-8" of snowfall going into February is something else.  Could even throw in central Mass when HubbDave has 8" on the season at over 1000ft in the ORH Hills for November/December/January...but hopefully folks realize just how obscenely low some of those values are.  Like 4" in the Litchfield Hills up through Radarman and Lurker going towards February 1st has to be the exact opposite of what happened last year in Eastern Mass.  The Berkshires and Litchfield hills can sometimes pick up 4" of fluff quickly from some rogue Lake Effect squalls that make it down the Mohawk Valley and upslope into the hills...but that's a 90-day first half of winter total.

 

Though I have no doubt it has been deep deep winter in West Chesterfield, MA.  Would be interesting to get SkiMRG's thoughts on it up until now, or is he at like 30" on the season?  lol. 

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WhiteLawns

WhiteLawns

Posted
Posted

I thought we were having a rough go of it in NNE, but man those areas in western SNE that are at 3-8" of snowfall going into February is something else.  Could even throw in central Mass when HubbDave has 8" on the season at over 1000ft in the ORH Hills for November/December/January...but hopefully folks realize just how obscenely low some of those values are.  Like 4" in the Litchfield Hills up through Radarman and Lurker going towards February 1st has to be the exact opposite of what happened last year in Eastern Mass.  The Berkshires and Litchfield hills can sometimes pick up 4" of fluff quickly from some rogue Lake Effect squalls that make it down the Mohawk Valley and upslope into the hills...but that's a 90-day first half of winter total.

Yep sitting at 3 inches here....  :axe:

 

and if eastern sne gets anything this weekend... we'll still be sitting at 3 inches.

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codfishsnowman

codfishsnowman

Posted
Posted

in the winter of 06-07 i had nothing until feb second when i got just under three inches....bdl had a few tiny events prior but there was no more than a coating here until early feb...i must say i never ever thought i would see anything close to that ever again but here we are...and we do average 45 or more inches per season so even with the inch of contraband sleet we are below 10 pct of average...maybe 7 pct...

 

ineedsnow is in even worse shape as he easily averages 50 plus so he is closer to 5 perccent with the contraband sleet

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

This is pretty funny if you skip to the time 2:20 on this video, I asked Tim Kelley in the Gondola to explain why we were getting shafted this winter and on the spot decided to film the response.  Its been dumping out west, dumping up in Quebec, and now dumping in the mid-Atlantic.   This is what he came up with (and he misspoke when he said Berkshires have 6" on the ground, he meant on the season)...we like to draw weather maps on the Gondola windows, ha.  We both agreed that western Mass right now is taking the cake for the lowest snowfall relative to normal.

 

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