dan123 Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Positive height anomalies extend from N of PR to Newfoundland so not a classic SE ridge. The trough axis is centred near Lk Superior. GEFS is similar gefs_z500a_noram_53.png Wouldn't you think that the se ridge would retrograde a little given the position of the -epo ridge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Wouldn't you think that the se ridge would retrograde a little given the position of the -epo ridge? Well see how the wave packet turns out. Ensembles typically broaden wavelengths too much due to member smoothing so the SE ridge could broaden. It goes both ways--the low height centre could always end up further east. The potential is there. Another thing to consider is the STJ. The weaker the STJ, the greater the opportunity for a system to wrap up/intensify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Well see how the wave packet turns out. Ensembles typically broaden wavelengths too much due to member smoothing so the SE ridge could broaden. It goes both ways--the low height centre could always end up further east. The potential is there. Another thing to consider is the STJ. The weaker the STJ, the greater the opportunity for a system to wrap up/intensify. I also heard the eps was stormy. Let's hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 P.S. The month is still spelled wrong... lol lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Positive height anomalies extend from N of PR to Newfoundland so not a classic SE ridge. The trough axis is centred near Lk Superior. GEFS is similar gefs_z500a_noram_53.png Major LES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Last month of met winter, ready to put 2015-2016 in its misery. Starting February off on a warm, windy and wet note. A warmer than average winter is a sure fire lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 East central Illinois sounds like a miserable location if you love snow and cold.. Hard enough to get that in se wisc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Another top shelf late winter day. Mild temps, some sun and chirping birds. You can sense spring isn't far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Another top shelf late winter day. Mild temps, some sun and chirping birds. You can sense spring isn't far. Ditto. Maxed out at 53 here, 3 straight 50+ reading in a row. Was an absolutely gorgeous day, usually when it's this warm in winter, you have howling south winds, 0 wind today. Gonna fire up the grill for some burgers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Upper 30Fs and sunshine today... snow cover is pretty pathetic but that won't last long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Has the late March/early April look around here. Several inches of snow/ice in most places, but open areas where the wind blows the snow and the sun hits constantly are showing grass, big dirty snow piles everywhere, dirty cars, depressing..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 What a difference a year makes. Today marks the 1-year anniversary of Detroit's 3rd biggest snowstorm on record. What a storm it was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 I showed my wife those before and after pics and asked her where she thought that storm ranked all time and she said her guess would be around 15th. I would have guessed the same if that was our backyard/climo like she assumed it was. I didn't tell her the location of the pictures were not here in southern Wisconsin. Pictures just never do snow storms justice. How much snow fell to record the 3rd biggest storm on record there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 I showed my wife those before and after pics and asked her where she thought that storm ranked all time and she said her guess would be around 15th. I would have guessed the same if that was our backyard/climo like she assumed it was. I didn't tell her the location of the pictures were not here in southern Wisconsin. Pictures just never do snow storms justice. How much snow fell to record the 3rd biggest storm on record there?Detroit recorded 16.7" of snow (#1 was 24.5" & #2 19.2"). This areas speciality is frequent snowfall and a typical good winter storm is in the 6-12" range, rarely going past a foot. Even in the record winter of 2014 when the landscape had depths of 2 feet and drifts more than double that, the largest single storm was just over 11". So to blow past the foot barrier by nearly 5" last year was quite nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Made it to 43° with a lot of sun on Monday. Ice/snow pack starting to break up, but enough coverage still to tack on another day to the 36 day streak. Might end tomorrow. This time last year we were wrapping up a blizzard. 15.5" from that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Made it to 43° with a lot of sun on Monday. Ice/snow pack starting to break up, but enough coverage still to tack on another day to the 36 day streak. Might end tomorrow. This time last year we were wrapping up a blizzard. 15.5" from that storm. 20150201_1427351.jpg Nice. Yep this time last year we were living the high life. We had 15.1" here, which was well over what I expected. At the time I was just hoping we'd get our first warning criteria event since Feb 2011. Storm far exceeded expectations. Here's a few pics. Top pic here shows the siberian elm in backyard which was severely damaged by the heavy snow that caked to the branches and broke off several large sections of the tree. The tree was eventually taken down about a month later after the snow was melted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Looks like the first 10 days of February are ruined before we know it March will be here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Looks like the first 10 days of February are ruined before we know it March will be here Yeah the first half of Feb is pure trash. Complete throw-away stretch of time. Hopefully the last half of Feb and March bring something that's worth a damn. Given the way this winter is going we'll either see another cutter that dumps snow well northwest, or another east coast bomb. Hopefully that's not the case. Luckily we're about done with this pos winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Decided to sum up monthly snow totals thus far off of the EC website for Windsor. To date 42.3cm or 16.7in has fallen where there has been a big percentage of on melting on contact snow within this data set. Need some true stat padding or perhaps a moisture laden southern storm or this winter will be the #1 clunker in my book. Driving around the region I was thinking on how dry the soil looks for this time of year. With the lack of frost and moisture lacking from snow melt I can all but wonder what spring/summer will hold. Given the lock in the La Nina and its typical data sets which follow. I can see some very hot any dry regions this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Decided to sum up monthly snow totals thus far off of the EC website for Windsor. To date 42.3cm or 16.7in has fallen where there has been a big percentage of on melting on contact snow within this data set. Need some true stat padding or perhaps a moisture laden southern storm or this winter will be the #1 clunker in my book. Driving around the region I was thinking on how dry the soil looks for this time of year. With the lack of frost and moisture lacking from snow melt I can all but wonder what spring/summer will hold. Given the lock in the La Nina and its typical data sets which follow. I can see some very hot any dry regions this summer. The upcoming pattern keeps the dry train rolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Decided to sum up monthly snow totals thus far off of the EC website for Windsor. To date 42.3cm or 16.7in has fallen where there has been a big percentage of on melting on contact snow within this data set. Need some true stat padding or perhaps a moisture laden southern storm or this winter will be the #1 clunker in my book. Driving around the region I was thinking on how dry the soil looks for this time of year. With the lack of frost and moisture lacking from snow melt I can all but wonder what spring/summer will hold. Given the lock in the La Nina and its typical data sets which follow. I can see some very hot any dry regions this summer. That's not far off from DTW (15.9"). In the states we don't count melting on contact snow as anything but a trace. Canada snow measuring ways are funky lol. Count melt on contact snow as 10-1 ratio by moving a decimal point, then if snow blows out of a nipher gague, too bad this storm gets a lower than realistic snow total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 That's not far off from DTW (15.9"). In the states we don't count melting on contact snow as anything but a trace. Canada snow measuring ways are stupid lol. Count melt on contact snow as 10-1 ratio by moving a decimal point, then if snow blows out of a nipher gague, too bad this storm gets a lower than realistic snow total fyp. It's really third world stuff up here. The counting of wet snow happens at primary stations (ie, stations that have nipher gauges) which is a blessing I guess because it mitigates some of the loss from snow blowing out of the gauge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Barring something crazy, meteorological winter should go down as warmer than average across the subforum, and wetter than average in at least the western half. The eastern half DJF precipitation departure will be dependent on what happens this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 2, 2016 Author Share Posted February 2, 2016 Just had the first thunder of 2016 here and a very small cloud to cloud lightning bolt. Nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Feb 2nd and thunder! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 My students thought I was crazy when I told them earlier in the day that we would have a thunderstorm this evening! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 fyp. It's really third world stuff up here. The counting of wet snow happens at primary stations (ie, stations that have nipher gauges) which is a blessing I guess because it mitigates some of the loss from snow blowing out of the gauge. lol. It is very strange. I get the mitigating thing but it would drive me mad. Measure each snow as properly as possible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Looking forward to a few mood flakes tomorrow morning. Although some models don't even give us that, so I'm hoping we can at least see a few flurries for awhile. Here west of the lakes we don't benefit from lake effect flurries on an otherwise "off day" for weather. Only flakes we see are from passing synoptic crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Record highs are going to drop like flies today in the eastern half of the sub forum. Interestingly, today's date has some of the lowest record highs during the winter, making these relatively easy records to break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Stunner of a day here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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