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February 2016 Discussion


HillsdaleMIWeather

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It seems the NAM (and NAM 4km) just doesn't like to forecast warm temperatures in the winter, when cold temps are giving way to warm temps and dry adiabatic mixing. Last night's 00z NAM predicted 45F at Toledo at 21z today (4PM) and Toledo has already reached 62F before 4PM.  The NAM forecast temp profile didn't show a dry adiabatic profile-- it had a much weaker lapse rate below 850mb. In reality, the temp profile is close to dry adiabatic right now.

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Winds starting to show signs of slowing down.  Still getting an occasional gust to 50, but the sustained winds have dropped some.  Had quite the period of 55-60mph gusts this afternoon.  Highest gust on the weather station was 54mph, which is only 5ft above the ground.  

 

This will rank in the top 3 events of the whole winter to be sure.  Nov snowstorm, Dec 23rd severe, and today's extremely impressive gradient wind event.

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Peak gust of 62mph at ORD and 58mph here.

Few LSR's from the LOT CWA...

..REMARKS..

0300 PM NON-TSTM WND GST THORNTON 41.57N 87.62W

02/19/2016 M72 MPH COOK IL TRAINED SPOTTER

WIND DAMAGED A HEATING AND AIR CONDITION UNIT.

0245 PM NON-TSTM WND GST GARY 41.60N 87.34W

02/19/2016 M70 MPH LAKE IN AWOS

61 KT GUST AT GARY AIRPORT.

0246 PM NON-TSTM WND GST OHARE AIRPORT 41.98N 87.90W

02/19/2016 M62 MPH COOK IL ASOS

54 KT WIND GUST.

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From IWX

 

0520 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 N ELKHART 41.71N 85.97W
02/19/2016 ELKHART IN BROADCAST MEDIA

TREE FELL ONTO A HOUSE CAUSING SIGNIFICANT
DAMAGE. INJURIES WERE NOT REPORTED.

 

0345 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 3 E LYDICK 41.70N 86.32W
02/19/2016 ST. JOSEPH IN BROADCAST MEDIA

SEMI BLOWN OVER BY WIND IN THE EASTBOUND
LANES OF THE US 20 BYPASS JUST EAST OF THE
MAYFLOWER EXIT.

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With the lack of ice, I'm surprised there hasn't been talk of a seiche.

 

Yeah that would occur once the winds drop. Usually a seiche on the lake is caused by a thunderstorm line, but these winds are probably high enough and constant enough.

 

I went out and saw all kinds of debris littering roads and yards. Whole trees snapped off at ground level. Power lines down and lights out. Heard of a couple semi's that got flipped over on the interstate in Racine County this afternoon.

My neighbor had a 15 foot diameter trampoline in their backyard. The 60mph gusts took the thing, flipped it over the house and landed it in the street!  

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