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February 2016 Discussion


HillsdaleMIWeather

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performing as modeled at 42 but still a good deal of snow on surfaces...hopefully it melts with the warm overnight temps and high winds before the real torch tomorrow

We were discussing the melt today into tonight at work a few days ago and Gino made a point that anecdotally, the most efficient melting actually seems to occur at night with a strong south wind vs. during the day. Not sure exactly why that's the case, but I've noticed the same thing and would expect all the snow to be gone by tomorrow morning except for piles.
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Except for sw Iowa, much of the state is a few+ degrees short of the Euro's temp forecast today.  It's still only a disappointing 43.  I'm sure the all-day cloudiness hasn't helped, and neither has the southeast wind.  I'm hoping we can perform better tomorrow relative to the model forecast (euro says 58).

 

It's currently 71 in Nebraska City, on the Iowa border.

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melting is far more efficient than sublimation. once the dew points get above 32 tonight, any lingering snow will go in a hurry with that wind. 

 

12Z euro still showing mid-60s on Friday and now has low 60s Saturday. may be able to tie the record at ORD tomorrow if that works out.  some of our probabilistic internal guidance suggests 66-68. 

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melting is far more efficient than sublimation. once the dew points get above 32 tonight, any lingering snow will go in a hurry with that wind.

12Z euro still showing mid-60s on Friday and now has low 60s Saturday. may be able to tie the record at ORD tomorrow if that works out. some of our probabilistic internal guidance suggests 66-68.

Good point about the dewpoints tonight. 66-68 would be awesome tomorrow. The setup tomorrow is close to ideal for getting extreme warmth in February and I think the Euro has consistently had the best handle on it. There hasn't been a big change in its forecast since I did the extended portion of the forecast last Sunday for LOT, it's actually trended warmer past several runs.

Welcome to the board by the way. Just out of curiosity, where do you work?

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Good point about the dewpoints tonight. 66-68 would be awesome tomorrow. The setup tomorrow is close to ideal for getting extreme warmth in February and I think the Euro has consistently had the best handle on it. There hasn't been a big change in its forecast since I did the extended portion of the forecast last Sunday for LOT, it's actually trended warmer past several runs.

Welcome to the board by the way. Just out of curiosity, where do you work?

Thanks! I'm at United Airlines NOC in Willis.  Technically employed by IBM now.

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Wow, DVN mentioning that it's not out of the question that even as far north as here we could make a run at 70 tomorrow.  Gonna come down to amount of sunshine and how high we can mix.  They're also not ruling out the possibility for warning criteria gradient winds.  Gonna be an interesting day tomorrow..

 

from DVN afd..

 

SOME CONCERN THAT EVEN DEEPER MIXING MAY OCCUR
IN AREAS THAT GET INSOLATION SOONER...POSSIBLY TAPING UP CLOSE TO A
H925 MB 60-65+ KT WIND FIELD AND DRIVING SFC WIND GUSTS NOT ALL THAT
FAR OFF OF WARNING CRITERIA/58 MPH IN SOME LOCATIONS.
FOR NOW WILL ADVERTISE THE ADVISORY AT A SOLID SUSTAINED 25 TO 35
MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH.

AS FOR THE WARM TEMPS...WILL KEEP ONGOING HIGHS WITH LITTLE CHANGE
FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE AS A NICE HAPPY MEDIUM OF THE POTENTIALS. BUT
AGAIN...WITH DEEPER MIXING...SOONER CLOUD CLEAR OFF TEMPS MAY GET IN
THE 70S IN THE SOUTHERN TO MIDDLE CWA LIKE WHAT IS OCCURRING IN
UPSTREAM AIR MASS ACRS NORTHWESTERN MO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD
MEAN RECORD HIGHS FOR AT LEAST BRL AND MLI. ..12..
 

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We were discussing the melt today into tonight at work a few days ago and Gino made a point that anecdotally, the most efficient melting actually seems to occur at night with a strong south wind vs. during the day. Not sure exactly why that's the case, but I've noticed the same thing and would expect all the snow to be gone by tomorrow morning except for piles.

Already down to just sheltered areas with light depth and piles here.
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Wow, DVN mentioning that it's not out of the question that even as far north as here we could make a run at 70 tomorrow.  Gonna come down to amount of sunshine and how high we can mix.  They're also not ruling out the possibility for warning criteria gradient winds.  Gonna be an interesting day tomorrow..

 

from DVN afd..

 

SOME CONCERN THAT EVEN DEEPER MIXING MAY OCCUR

IN AREAS THAT GET INSOLATION SOONER...POSSIBLY TAPING UP CLOSE TO A

H925 MB 60-65+ KT WIND FIELD AND DRIVING SFC WIND GUSTS NOT ALL THAT

FAR OFF OF WARNING CRITERIA/58 MPH IN SOME LOCATIONS.

FOR NOW WILL ADVERTISE THE ADVISORY AT A SOLID SUSTAINED 25 TO 35

MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH.

AS FOR THE WARM TEMPS...WILL KEEP ONGOING HIGHS WITH LITTLE CHANGE

FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE AS A NICE HAPPY MEDIUM OF THE POTENTIALS. BUT

AGAIN...WITH DEEPER MIXING...SOONER CLOUD CLEAR OFF TEMPS MAY GET IN

THE 70S IN THE SOUTHERN TO MIDDLE CWA LIKE WHAT IS OCCURRING IN

UPSTREAM AIR MASS ACRS NORTHWESTERN MO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD

MEAN RECORD HIGHS FOR AT LEAST BRL AND MLI. ..12..

 

 

What's the warmest February temp you've experienced?

 

I think here about 64-65°.

Two inches of snow still on the ground. Bare areas on south facing slopes and up next to buildings.

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What's the warmest February temp you've experienced?

 

I think here about 64-65°.

Two inches of snow still on the ground. Bare areas on south facing slopes and up next to buildings.

 

Can't remember lol.  Probably somewhere around 70 I'd imagine.  I do distinctly remember the warmest Jan temp though.  That was back in 89 on Jan 31st when MLI hit 69.  I was home sick from school that day.

 

Been pretty windy the last hour or so.  Getting consistent gusts above 35mph.  60 degree temps still lurking in far southern Iowa.

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Temp has risen several degrees in the last few hours as winds have turned from southeasterly to southerly.  Up to 44 now.  The wind gusts out over the Plains tonight have been pretty extreme.  Several gusts over 70mph in South Dakota, with some 60+ gusts in Nebraska.

Same here. 48° right now, and pretty breezy. 

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Oh, what for?

A getaway long weekend. Was going to be a snow trip to Marquette but they really do have subpar snow (for them). Thinking they have a foot at most in the city, up to 2 feet in Negaunee. Yes it's more snow than I've seen all winter,but I had more in my own backyard much of the last 2 winters and my snow trips to the U.P. usually entail some epic snow. No time to drive all the way to Keweenaw and the parents are going so have to have things to do lol. I figured i will try to take a longer trip next winter way up. Or rather, hope for a 2013-14 repeat and make a snow trip unecessary :weenie:
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