Thundersnow12 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Big upgrade/changes just went live to our HRRR on CoD site with new products and graphics just an FYI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 GFS brings the weekend warm-up a lot farther north than the NAM. Love seeing a chinook feed into the warm sector on this system in the lee of the Rockies on the models. Very cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Big upgrade/changes just went live to our HRRR on CoD site with new products and graphics just an FYI i'll check it out if/when we get something to follow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 We lost some snow today dude. And Im not sure where you got forecasted highs of mid 30s or higher. I had a predicted high of 31-32 today.I literally have a depth stick in the ground and the snow did not budge. I suppose maybe it did on the edges of salt splashed interstates. It was a settled snowpack dotted with freezing glaze on top and temps below freezing under thick stratus...why would it? And the forecast high each of the last 2 days was 35-36 for dtw, which dtx already lowered a few degrees from the computer forecast numbers. Not sure where YOU are getting 31-32, unless they were 3pm updates with downgraded highs by dtx. It means nothing by fri but it is what it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Picked up 1.25" last night. I was a little surprised, I had no idea until I let the dog out. I was surprised by the snow this morning. We had 0.7" here, I expected maybe a light dusting. It added a beautiful sparkle to the now 3-inch snowcover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Beautiful day with blue skies and a fresh snow cover. Friday definitely looks like the warmest day here. I don't know about 57° in the grid, but mid 40s seem likely. GFS, NAM brings the warm front up to the I-88 corridor and hovers it there through Saturday. Wondering how much of an impact the clouds associated with the low over Superior will have on temperature predictions. Mid 40s? You could tag 60 even up there if the Euro is right with its 925 mb temps of +11 to +13C. I'm not at work to check but I suspect that the NAM and GFS both are projecting there to be snow on the ground on Friday, which keeps 925 mb and boundary layer temps cooler and mixing shallower than what will occur in reality. Also the NAM has high low level RH, probably because of thinking there will be snow on the ground. Euro is more likely to be closer to correct with this setup. The dry air advecting in behind the front will also help mixing and efficient surface warming. Clouds shouldn't be an issue either with the dry airmass advecting in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Looks like it might be very breezy Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Got a coating of snow yesterday, just enough to be irritating, but not so much that it needed shoveling, so I just let it clear up on it's own. I am not sure, but, it seems like throughout January sunny days were at a premium. After this winter, I am really looking forward to spring. Getting a weather station in the next couple of weeks, so I am looking forward to getting that set up. Sweet. What you going with? I've had a Vantage Vue for almost 5 years. Works great. Only thing I've had to do was replace the 3v lithium battery a few times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 A bit intrigued by Monday's system. The snow swath will be very narrow, but it looks like a pretty solid band could set up N of the vort max as it swings through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Forgot to mention that DVN is thinking high-end advisory or low-end warning type wind event for Fri. Part of their disco from this morning... HOWEVER...TO GETTHIS WARM WEATHER IN WINTER YOU NEED TO CRANK UP THE WIND MACHINE.MODELS DEPICT 55-70 KNOT 850 MB WINDS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHTAND FRIDAY SO HOLD ONTO YOUR HAT! THE DEEP MIXING WILL OCCUR ONFRIDAY DUE TO SUNSHINE ALLOWING FOR VERY WINDY CONDITIONS...WITHWEST WINDS GUSTING EASILY OVER 40 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS POTENTIALLY TONEAR 50 MPH. AT THIS TIME THIS LOOKS TO BE EITHER A HIGH END WINDADVISORY OR LOW END WARNING CRITERIA...BUT IT IS TOO EARLY FOR ANYHEADLINES YET. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL SOAR INTO THE 50SNORTH AND 60S SOUTH BUT AS IT STANDS NOW RECORD HIGHS ARE NOT INJEOPARDY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Mid 40s? You could tag 60 even up there if the Euro is right with its 925 mb temps of +11 to +13C. I'm not at work to check but I suspect that the NAM and GFS both are projecting there to be snow on the ground on Friday, which keeps 925 mb and boundary layer temps cooler and mixing shallower than what will occur in reality. Also the NAM has high low level RH, probably because of thinking there will be snow on the ground. Euro is more likely to be closer to correct with this setup. The dry air advecting in behind the front will also help mixing and efficient surface warming. Clouds shouldn't be an issue either with the dry airmass advecting in. I didn't know about the EURO at the time, so I was wondering what model you were going off of. It sure wasn't the GFS or NAM, or even the GEM. GEM did show low 50s here on the 12z. Well hopefully there's no lake breeze. High of 29° today. Sun felt warmer though and with light winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Some sun today along with temps eclipsing freezing (34) for the first time in a while melted some snow. The sun is definitely getting stronger, it's just rarely out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Plains are gonna torch hard this weekend. Our record highs should be safe, record high for 2/19 is 68 degrees set back in 1930, we are forecasted at 64, should be safe, providing nothing crazy happens. Saturday 2/20 record high is 66 (1930 again) that too should be safe. Wow 1930 must have been crazy warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Forgot to mention that DVN is thinking high-end advisory or low-end warning type wind event for Fri. Part of their disco from this morning... HOWEVER...TO GET THIS WARM WEATHER IN WINTER YOU NEED TO CRANK UP THE WIND MACHINE. MODELS DEPICT 55-70 KNOT 850 MB WINDS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY SO HOLD ONTO YOUR HAT! THE DEEP MIXING WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY DUE TO SUNSHINE ALLOWING FOR VERY WINDY CONDITIONS...WITH WEST WINDS GUSTING EASILY OVER 40 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS POTENTIALLY TO NEAR 50 MPH. AT THIS TIME THIS LOOKS TO BE EITHER A HIGH END WIND ADVISORY OR LOW END WARNING CRITERIA...BUT IT IS TOO EARLY FOR ANY HEADLINES YET. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL SOAR INTO THE 50S NORTH AND 60S SOUTH BUT AS IT STANDS NOW RECORD HIGHS ARE NOT IN JEOPARDY. Seems like wind advisories may be issued from eastern Iowa into Ohio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Below guidance right now at 12°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Sitting comfortably at 22°. Almost all snow has melted, but still enough to make ramps out of for RC cars, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Plains are gonna torch hard this weekend. Our record highs should be safe, record high for 2/19 is 68 degrees set back in 1930, we are forecasted at 64, should be safe, providing nothing crazy happens. Saturday 2/20 record high is 66 (1930 again) that too should be safe. Wow 1930 must have been crazy warm. 1930 ended up being a hot summer, especially farther west in the Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Big upgrade/changes just went live to our HRRR on CoD site with new products and graphics just an FYI Nice. Any chance at getting wind speeds added to the surface height? You can see the barbs of course in a few of the selections, but for ease of use having the color filled wind speeds like the other heights would be great. Btw, surprised you haven't lobbied for the 24hr RUC backup to be added. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Sitting comfortably at 22°. Almost all snow has melted, but still enough to make ramps out of for RC cars, haha. Amazing how much warmer it is by you. 16° colder here than at ORD right now. 11° imby currently. 2.5" of snow still on the ground here. Edit: Just noticed single digits in the Fox Valley up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 25 here. Just patches left after hitting 35 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Temperature rising here. 26° with 0 wind. Can't wait for the warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Well, the GFS and GGEM pretty much lost that Sunday / Monday system entirely, unless you're game for another T-1" snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 I didn't know about the EURO at the time, so I was wondering what model you were going off of. It sure wasn't the GFS or NAM, or even the GEM. GEM did show low 50s here on the 12z. Well hopefully there's no lake breeze. High of 29° today. Sun felt warmer though and with light winds. In our verification stats the past several years, ECMWF guidance, including bias-corrected and MOS products, tend to perform very well with temperatures. This has been noted consistently during cool season warmups. The bias corrected GGEM and RGEM have also performed well with MaxT on warm days. There are times where the raw GFS is right for the wrong reasons, but it is more often than not the worst performing temperature guidance. Hopefully the next upgrade coming soon helps in this regard. Regarding the NAM, it can perform decent at times with temperatures, but it has a recurring problem with initializing with snow cover too deep, snow cover where none exists, or holding onto snow cover too long. As I mentioned in the previous post, this manifests itself with a low level cool/moist bias, cooler than in reality at 925 mb, and shallower mixing than what verifies. I still think the Euro will end up having performed the best with the warmth on Friday, and the 00z run was even slightly warmer than the 12z run, bringing mid 60s to Chicago and low 60s to Lake County. I think 60s will be widespread into northeast IL, unless it gets ruined by a lake breeze with SW winds gusting to 45 mph . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Busted way high overnight with low temperatures. Forecasted to bottom out at 17F, only reached 25F. Today starts the stretch of 5/6 days with above normal temps to hopefully bump us back above average for the month. Currently sitting ~ -2.5F for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Point now at 61 for tomorrow. The patches of snow currently on the ground will be gone by sunset today with the upper 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Point now at 61 for tomorrow. The patches of snow currently on the ground will be gone by sunset today with the upper 40s. i'm really just hoping we lose all our snow and dry out a bit under full sun and stiff breezes today so that friday/saturday aren't just mud city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Point now at 61 for tomorrow. The patches of snow currently on the ground will be gone by sunset today with the upper 40s. Wow...just about shorts weather. Enjoy that. We should make 50F Fri/Sat...but the winds will be blowing. I see out in S Dakota they are showing winds in the mid 60s... with temps today in the mid 70Fs in areas east of Rapid City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Low of -7.6F this morning. Probably the last time it gets that cold before next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 -5 this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 In our verification stats the past several years, ECMWF guidance, including bias-corrected and MOS products, tend to perform very well with temperatures. This has been noted consistently during cool season warmups. The bias corrected GGEM and RGEM have also performed well with MaxT on warm days. There are times where the raw GFS is right for the wrong reasons, but it is more often than not the worst performing temperature guidance. Hopefully the next upgrade coming soon helps in this regard. Regarding the NAM, it can perform decent at times with temperatures, but it has a recurring problem with initializing with snow cover too deep, snow cover where none exists, or holding onto snow cover too long. As I mentioned in the previous post, this manifests itself with a low level cool/moist bias, cooler than in reality at 925 mb, and shallower mixing than what verifies. I still think the Euro will end up having performed the best with the warmth on Friday, and the 00z run was even slightly warmer than the 12z run, bringing mid 60s to Chicago and low 60s to Lake County. I think 60s will be widespread into northeast IL, unless it gets ruined by a lake breeze with SW winds gusting to 45 mph . Thanks for the info. I know the EURO can do well with setups like this as long as clouds don't get in the way. Was a cold night last night with a low of 10° early. Had to crank the heat up. At 29° with cloudy skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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