A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 The trend is there more or less. I'm not sure there is a much in the way of a trend yet with the main show First wave helps salvage scraps but we still have some work to do to stop the SLP from cutting overhead (or to our west) which for the time being had good model support. Given the energy digging into the base of the trough over the southwest, the weenie in my says the models are to quick/far north with lee side cyclogensis which IMO tends to lag a bit from what's typically advertised at this range. If this isn't the case, we're probably boned because it's going to wrap up in a hurry once it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Nice recovery on the 12z GFS after a few kicks to the junk on the overnight runs. Stopped the bleeding at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Need that better/stronger wave on Sunday to pull that baroclinic zone as far south as it can go. I don't know how I pulled it off, but I got 6" on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Need that better/stronger wave on Sunday to pull that baroclinic zone as far south as it can go. I don't know how I pulled it off, but I got 6" on that run. Life's good on Mount Geos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Looking similar to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Life's good on Mount Geos. It must be some LES mixed in on the backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Obviously not looking good down here. Maybe backside flurries. Good Luck to you guys up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 GGEM handles the lead storm (~120 hrs) much differently. Doesn't really wrap up a storm at all. Just a fropa that hangs up in the OV. I think it's better that this storm gets wrapped up but the GEM does sink the baroclinic zone fairly far to the south (probably still not far enough though). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 fwiw, just a refresher on the surface map from Dec 28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 It looks like it is occluding too early on the GFS and GGEM. That really limits a lot of things further east, both on the cold and warm sides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 27, 2016 Author Share Posted January 27, 2016 Impressive Cycloneville to MDW gradient Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 It looks like it is occluding too early on the GFS and GGEM. That really limits a lot of things further east, both on the cold and warm sides. this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 27, 2016 Author Share Posted January 27, 2016 12z GEFS looks a bit SE of the 6z run. From about STL to GYY but as usual members on both sides of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michigander Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 AccuWeather weighs in and mentions a 40-60 degree temp gradient. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/groundhog-day-snowstorm-wind-blizzard-may-disrupt-travel-from-denver-to-minneapolis/55026713 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 i don't think we'll see the euro deviate much from the TX/NM/OK to N. IL track which appears to be gaining some good consensus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Impressive Cycloneville to MDW gradient cmc_snow_acc_mc_29.png I'll take that and run with it. This wave was 4mb lower on this run compared to last. Pulls that baroclinic zone just far enough south for all snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 at this point, i'm comfortable tossing anything, in this case the GGEM, the doesn't wrap up fully Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 The 12Z runs today seem as if they had problems. All had differing solutions and stuff that didn't make sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 at this point, i'm comfortable tossing anything, in this case the GGEM, the doesn't wrap up fully Southern jet might have it's way with it and delay a wrap up. You were saying the EURO usually wraps the lows too quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 The 12Z runs today seem as if they had problems. All had differing solutions and stuff that didn't make sense. Please, elaborate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 I'm wondering if this is more typical in a Nino, but this year in particular it seems to be that southern/SE shifts often result in stronger lows on models while NW trends are resulting in weaker lows. Usually it's the opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Low to the east is stronger and much further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Aleks call for a rainer last week looks to verify for mby. Congrats to those up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 That nose of colder air in MN is further along than 24 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Low to the east is stronger and much further east. we are starting to see a more realistic presentation of the SLP located at the base of the trough as it ejects (moved from NW CO to E. NM from 12z to 12z) but it's still too quick on the heels of the first storm and destined to cut west but a step in the right direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 27, 2016 Author Share Posted January 27, 2016 Baroclinic zone further south on the Euro so far through 120hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 High is bananaing out, like the EPS mean yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Baroclinic zone further south on the Euro so far through 120hrs not enough to save us but at least we went the right direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 man the euro really goes boom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 And then it goes almost straight north into the high... Occludes also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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