A-L-E-K Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 IMO strung out continues to be the less likely scenario and the CMC looks like it took a step towards stronger GEFS like solutions. Getting the 500 mb trough to slow and dig before rapidly closing off lee of the rockies is the wildcard but i have no doubt about robust surface low development Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Another thing different between the GFS and GGEM is the jet stream speed. GGEM shows a stronger jet coming out of the SW, than the GFS. GGEM trough is sharper in Nevada. This kinda makes sense since we're still in an el Nino pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 My feeling is that the GFS would rival the December sleet storm. Would pass on that. Still have piles of sleet glacier around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 It'd be almost inconceivable to get 2 big sleet storms in the same area in the same winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 It'd be almost inconceivable to get 2 big sleet storms in the same area in the same winter. go big or go home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Ha Ha, although this would be a better representation for us "local's living in da sticks And yes this system has the chance to bring us even rain sadly. A Chance that appears to be dwindling. 2 days ago the euro had the low over MSP. Now it's cutting through the lower peninsula. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Hopefully we can establish a pattern where 40's and 50's are common into February. Much better than rain to seasonably cold...rinse and repeat. We were due for a winter like this. Pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 12z GEFS largely amped QPF laden hard cutters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 It'd be almost inconceivable to get 2 big sleet storms in the same area in the same winter. Yup. I need a sleet refresher. I only have black sleet piles left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 go big or go home Unfortunately I gotta agree with what you've been posting about a potential rainer. But we are far enough out and have seen southerly shifts with some other systems coming out of the southwest this winter so I'll hold out a bit of hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Would pass on that. Still have piles of sleet glacier around. Another 3" sleet - wouldn't lose this glacier until late March probably. Yesterday's above freezing temps did nothing to it, except make it more slick to walk on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Another 3" sleet - wouldn't lose this glacier until late March probably. Yesterday's above freezing temps did nothing to it, except make it more slick to walk on. You still have sleet on the ground? Wow, nothing here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Needs to dig more, then we can use the term big dog. For now, let's use the term flip flop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 You still have sleet on the ground? Wow, nothing here. Yes, between 2-3". Now you go towards Racine and it thins out, and you go south of middle Lake County and it thins pretty quickly. Post a picture later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 You still have sleet on the ground? Wow, nothing here. Sporadic spots on the grass, but a solid foot plus where the snowblower stacked it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 144 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 not going to end well, you really want the SLP tucked further south into the base of the trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 989 mb near the KS/OK border at 168 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 989 mb near the KS/OK border at 168 hours. another hard cutter, wraps up fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 High pressure in Canada is a little bit further south than the 12z yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 High pressure in Canada is a little bit further south than the 12z yesterday. won't matter one bit if we have a sub 990 SLP that far west with the h5 trough closing off so quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Resembles the GFS to some degree, but deeper aloft and a bit faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Seems a little early to be throwing in the towel, but the chances of the main storm being a pure snowstorm this far east are slim to nil. Hoping for a front-end thump/ice storm as a consolation prize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Cuts farther east than I was thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Resembles the GFS to some degree, but deeper aloft and a bit faster. on the plus side, hoping for a slowing trend with a southwest trough isn't the worst weenie card to be holding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 26, 2016 Author Share Posted January 26, 2016 Euro wetter in both the warm and cold sector Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Cuts farther east than I was thinking. I could tell at 168 that it wouldn't go too far to the west because of that little s/w rotating around the PV SW of Hudson Bay. It's actually kinda of a replica of what went on with the EC storm last weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Euro wetter in both the warm and cold sector not at all surprised setup has all the hallmarks up a high QPF event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 26, 2016 Author Share Posted January 26, 2016 not at all surprised setup has all the hallmarks up a high QPF event 1.8" QPF in the heart of the snow swath crazy baroclinic zone reminiscent of GHD I too, At 174hrs MSN has an 850mb temp of -5 while northern IN is 12 deg c. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Initial runs a day or two ago had a more shallow low, so at least the consensus is deepening..... I agree with the cutter discussion though. Bummer, but still a ways out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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