Powerball Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 First TSRA of 2016? Now you know darn well that ain't happening this far north in early February (especially with ice cold Lake Erie and Lake Michigan to the S and W). Just prepare for some cold, stratiform moderate rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 A small portion of what will be the main storm is currently being sampled by the RAOB network in NW Washington State and British Columbia. But it's not fully sampled yet and it won't be fully sampled until Monday at best. The initial (Sunday's) wave was fully sampled for the 00z run though. Thanks for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Last map of the NAM. Low crawls out of OK with snow band setting up west to east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Lockin' in cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Yeah not looking good.. Can't imagine how that nam map end up any good to those to right and south. I'd be nervous in western wi to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Looking forward to my rain and wind. I was rooting for the Canadian to verify for Hoosier, but it's not looking good. Congrats to those in IA, WI, southeastern MN, and Northern MI who are going to see some real winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Only got about 6 hours of sleep last night due to anxiety of the models, hoping that the GFS would shift southeast. I checked the 6z GFS at 6:30 AM this morning and it shows mainly rain for us, but it takes the low right over Chicago and not over my head. The 6z GEFS likely has the low over Chicago but has above freezing temps just to my southeast. Either way, if I do get snow, it'll likely be of the cement kind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Only got about 6 hours of sleep last night due to anxiety of the models, hoping that the GFS would shift southeast. I checked the 6z GFS at 6:30 AM this morning and it shows mainly rain for us, but it takes the low right over Chicago and not over my head. The 6z GEFS likely has the low over Chicago but has above freezing temps just to my southeast. Either way, if I do get snow, it'll likely be of the cement kind. I think your golden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 To no surprise, rain will be the precip type for the eastern flanks once again. Nothing new for the region this winter. Was hoping for a positive outcome for all of us but the truth is the southern jet is just overpowering the stale cold air from the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Hoping for snow, and then, hoping we don't get any. I am thinking, based on all that has been posted here, that NE IL gets mostly rain, probably a little snow initially. But, then, I could wind up being wrong, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 To no surprise, rain will be the precip type for the eastern flanks once again. Nothing new for the region this winter. Was hoping for a positive outcome for all of us but the truth is the southern jet is just overpowering the stale cold air from the north. Strong El Nino at work... Anyways, if I had a choice of 10+ inches of cement snow plus strong winds or cold rain plus strong winds, I would (surprisingly) take the cold rain as cement snow and winds do not mix at all, as was the case on December 20, 2012 and again on February 1, 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Yeah you could get a nice rinse job on the vehicle with strong winds and rain. Congrats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 I think your golden. Yeah I don't think I'd pull out the I'd rather take wind driven rain over 10" of paste snow card just yet if was in cedar rapids. We all cope different ways though when we're nervous of being on the edge and wrong side of a cutter. 10" plus storms are just not that common enough in the Midwest unless you live in Chicago for me to pass it up just because it wouldn't blow around for me. Like I said though we all cope different and go through many mental stages leading up to go time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 RAOB weenie last resort appears to be going strong consensus is great, it's time to punt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasmosnow Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 If you can believe the latest NAM southern WI in the sweet spot.Keeps us out of the dry tongue and all snow. Colder at 850 and more southerly track as well as stronger system. It ain't over till it's over! Gonna be a long weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Yeah only getting 3 hrs of sleep it was actually kind of nice to wake up to the 12z nam.. Yeah it's the nam but it was a breath of fresh spring air compared to the 0z spring air storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Where do you guys think the NAM takes the low from there? North along Lake Michigan, or does it flatten out and move E or ENE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Unfortunately I think its getting ready to put its left blinker on last second and head our way for an unwanted visit. I think for us to the east we hope for the best on the front end and enjoy the dryslot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasmosnow Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Where do you guys think the NAM takes the low from there? North along Lake Michigan, or does it flatten out and move E or ENE? Does not go north along lake Michigan. Probably into lower Michigan to Alpena.But is the NAM. Not to be trusted past 48 hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Unfortunately I think its getting ready to put its left blinker on last second and head our way for an unwanted visit. I think for us to the east we hope for the best on the front end and enjoy the dryslot Does not go north along lake Michigan. Probably into lower Michigan to Alpena.But is the NAM. Not to be trusted past 48 hours! I'd rather get a dryslot than more pouring down rain. I've seen enough stupid rain this winter. Sometimes the NAM does well...usually when it's off on its own against all the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 From what little I gathered it preformed well in the east coast blizzard.. Just trying to stay a little optimistic to start this glorious spring like weekend of late January weather..sigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michigander Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 12Z GFS shifted slightly southeast but nothing to get excited about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 12Z GFS shifted slightly southeast but nothing to get excited about. It totally screws over all of lower Michigan... If you drew a line from Milwaukee to north of Montreal, the snow "should" be farther south in Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michigander Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 It totally screws over all of lower Michigan... If you drew a line from Milwaukee to north of Montreal, the snow "should" be farther south in Michigan. I'm worried about our snow pack -- if this turns out to be mostly rain -- we could be looking at dirt for most of February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 I'm worried about our snow pack -- if this turns out to be mostly rain -- we could be looking at dirt for most of February. Eh, we'll fortunately get lake effect snows after this...but we know how a February sun can burn through that fluff. How much snow do you have on the ground over there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Uh, the 12z GFS was not SE of the 06z run. 90 hr it's over McHenry, IL on the 06z. On the 12z at hr 84 it's west of Dixon. Also weaker in the 12z run. Fairly marginal changes on snowfall placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 GGEM going NW as well. Huge shift from last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 GGEM going NW as well. Huge shift from last night. Writing has been on the wall for some time for IL. Rain time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 12z GFS snowfall total map has the gradient cutting right through Cedar Rapids. Also, the 850 mb 0C line is right over Cedar Rapids. In other words, it's going to be a whole lot of paste for me. EDIT: One thing I'm really glad is that there isn't a strong arctic high in Canada like there was on December 28, 2015 or else this would be a nasty ice storm for many folks in this subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Still 3 days for it to come back south....right?................ bahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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