Harry Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Sounds like you're still optimistic lol Not really! More desperate then anything.. Very hard to ignore the GFS which has been pretty steady with the further nw track. Have not totally written it off yet.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Is the GEFS and GFS the same model? GEFS is the ensemble runs of the GFS. They're related. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 GFS has been more or less in the same area in the last few days. Now tonight it decides it wants to do something different. GEM ensemble mean a shade se of 12z run with a track to Port Huron/Detroit vs 12z over Flint. Wasn't expecting to hear this.^ Don't know what to think, other than it's too early to call any shots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Looking at the GEFS, the low doesn't track right over my head although it shows temps in the mid 30s for much of eastern Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Trend in the GEFS today has been to shift slp track to the NW - though it shifted to the SE between 06z and 12z. Lots of time left for this one. These shifts are to be expected but I'm certainly not digging this current trend for MBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Trend in the GEFS today has been to shift slp track to the NW - though it shifted to the SE between 06z and 12z. Lots of time left for this one. These shifts are to be expected but I'm certainly not digging this current trend for MBY. Hey at least the shifts are happening now 3-4 day out. Better than within 48 hours. This was the last run that the GFS had the low crossing NW IL. 18z Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Shouldn't have two large cappuccinos at 9:30pm. Now I'm ****ed. It'll be interesting to see if the EURO and UKIE follow the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Not impressed with the first wave either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Just a little bit slower. Everything else looks the same.^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2016 Author Share Posted January 30, 2016 The Euro is 4mb stronger with the Sunday wave across MI compared to the 12z run FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 What's the euro's track record this winter? So, currently it looks like we have CMC/Euro in the southern camp and GFS in the nothern camp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 994mb near Springfield. That's close to the 0z run yesterday. 1mb weaker at 96 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 What's the euro's track record this winter? So, currently it looks like we have CMC/Euro in the southern camp and GFS in the nothern camp In the eastern US, not so great. Sounds like when the EURO took a more southern dip, it brought up more warm air than the 12z run. Track looks to be still south of here. Or is there zig zagging again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 In the eastern US, not so great. Sounds like when the EURO took a more southern dip, it brought up more warm air than the 12z run. Track looks to be still south of here. Or is there zig zagging again? It goes north of you. Ends up crossing Traverse City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Looks like euro came a little north from the 12z run but still south of the GFS 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Looks like euro came a little north from the 12z run but still south of the GFS 0z run. A little? That was a decent jump nw from 12z.. 12z took it over se MI vs 00z which takes it almost to the UP/Traverse City.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 It goes north of you. Ends up crossing Traverse City. It must zig zag then, going from central IL to Georgian Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 New op Euro deposits best snows from Fort Dodge IA up to around Wausau. That's been the most commonly zeroed in zone for sig accums since we started watching this thing 4-5 days ago. Starting to think that maybe that area will likely end up with the most snow after all. Not throwing the towel in yet, but I'm starting to get the typical here we go again type of feeling. Sure hope we can get our 2nd 1"+ snow event for met winter at least out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 A little? That was a decent jump nw from 12z.. 12z took it over se MI vs 00z which takes it almost to the UP/Traverse City.. Ok - yeah, hard to tell on the TT maps with the 24 hr intervals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Forgot that you can see EURO maps on Wunderground. Surface low near KC at 90 hours. Then the low gets all stretched out as it approaches I-80 like we see at 96 hours. MSLP passes right overhead and up Lake Michigan before moving east of Lake Huron. There's some front end snow in far N IL and southern WI. Rain, then a massive dry slot moves in - precip shuts off. Possibly some freezing rain in southern WI from Milwaukee to Madison around 99 hours. Looks like it gets to about 2°C in the dry slot here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Man the 00z GFS taking the 850mb low right over La Crosse...hopefully not a tease. Some notable changes at 500mb helping this thing come north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 WRF ARW tries to wrap a nice lead wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 No good. Way north for most of us. Did this thing get sampled by chance? A small portion of what will be the main storm is currently being sampled by the RAOB network in NW Washington State and British Columbia. But it's not fully sampled yet and it won't be fully sampled until Monday at best. The initial (Sunday's) wave was fully sampled for the 00z run though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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