UMB WX Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Big ole fat Mississippi river carp just munching up the qpf in southern wi and ne Illinois Yes I realized that doesn't look like a carp but it sure is ugly like one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 This map has be some kind of fluke around here. I've never seen anything like this and I don't foggiest idea how to explain what it is showing for the Chicago metro. looks like a big brook trout eating the metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 looks like a big brook trout eating the metro Very, very weird snowfall map. I almost thought the southern streak might have been from the first wave, but it is way too warm. Alek would get more than I would if that was remotely possible. lol RGEM has a strong Sunday wave now. Add the 4KM NAM to the idea as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Not comforting the rgem now has stronger first wave. Ketchup squirt bottle to gun fight..rgem will not save us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Not comforting the rgem now has stronger first wave. Ketchup squirt bottle to gun fight..rgem will not save us. This is why I don't think there is any consensus at this point and I cannot pick sides on a weak/strong first wave and a West/East second wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Not comforting the rgem now has stronger first wave. Ketchup squirt bottle to gun fight..rgem will not save us. The RGEM has done a really good job at sniffing out features that other models have missed. Let's give it a chance to prove itself. I can't support the strong wave idea or knock it yet. The 12z NMM has a moderately strong wave in MN on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 I just thought the consensus was stronger first wave gave us a better chance in the east. If we lose that we lose the battle and I think there's a chance we could be bleeding out it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 I should note that the 0z GFS takes the low right over me. Any further shift to the NW would be bad but at least it would take away the humiliation of Cedar Falls getting a foot while I get nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 The RGEM has done a really good job at sniffing out features that other models have missed. Let's give it a chance to prove itself. I can't support the strong wave idea or knock it yet. The 12z NMM has a moderately strong wave in MN on Sunday. I thought a model or two already sniffed that stronger first wave and don't seem to like the smell of it and are making a squealing left turn away from that smell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 This map has be some kind of fluke around here. I've never seen anything like this and I don't foggiest idea how to explain what it is showing for the Chicago metro. Geos anti-lolipop? That's an easy toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 I just thought the consensus was stronger first wave gave us a better chance in the east. If we lose that we lose the battle and I think there's a chance we could be bleeding out it Yeah, if there is a stronger first wave, the idea is that more cold air would make its way South and would give us a better chance at seeing snow/possibly affecting the path of the Low. So yes there was a consensus, but there is NO consensus on wether or not it is going to be a strong wave at this point imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 I just thought the consensus was stronger first wave gave us a better chance in the east. If we lose that we lose the battle and I think there's a chance we could be bleeding out it Yes that is true. A slower ejection of the main wave out of the SW would also be better for us too. Where are you located anyways? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2016 Author Share Posted January 30, 2016 This is why I don't think there is any consensus at this point and I cannot pick sides on a weak/strong first wave and a West/East second wave. If you're in northern IL and want snow, you for sure want a strong first wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 If you're in northern IL and want snow, you for sure want a strong first wave I know that haha but I'm saying I can't decide which models to trust and what trends to notice regarding if the first wave WILL be strong or not (as most of us don't know either). Just to clear things up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Yes that is true. A slower ejection of the main wave out of the SW would also be better for us too. Where are you located anyways? Caledonia, wi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 If you're in northern IL and want snow, you for sure want a strong first wave If we get a good rain on Sunday, that would be a good sign for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 CMC up close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 If we get a good rain on Sunday, that would be a good sign for us. Normally not a fan of rain in January but bring on three quarters of an inch on Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Caledonia, wi O ok. Not far at all away. It's one of those nights of model watching where your left thinking, "what should I believe", or "what just happened!?" TT map doesn't show the Brook Trout as well, so I'm thinking it's picking up on the marine influence more or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Talk about extreme differences between the GFS and CMC. GFS is too far north (giving me nada) while the CMC gives me 6 inches (while Geos and crew cash in). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Now for fun we root how far west we can get it.kind of like ghd 2011 nw trend. Hated that one...guess it could've been worse though if it had been rain. Northern IL and the Milwaukee area did well enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Hated that one...guess it could've been worse though if it had been rain. Northern IL and the Milwaukee area did well enough. You mean all that sleet you got on GHD 2011? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Overreacting to the gfs with a touch of sarcasm to but I just can't have a ounce of faith the rgem will hold tonight's run in 12 more hrs even.. I think a solution the gfs could be close solution and maybe even bit more west warmer in the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 O ok. Not far at all away. It's one of those nights of model watching where your left thinking, "what should I believe", or "what just happened!?" TT map doesn't show the Brook Trout as well, so I'm thinking it's picking up on the marine influence more or less. It just shows a baseball player trying to catch baseballs (or snowballs) over the northern plains... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 It just shows a baseball player trying to catch baseballs (or snowballs) over the northern plains... Hilarious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 GEM ensemble mean a shade se of 12z run with a track to Port Huron/Detroit vs 12z over Flint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Some very big NW shifts on the GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2016 Author Share Posted January 30, 2016 GEM ensemble mean a shade se of 12z run with a track to Port Huron/Detroit vs 12z over Flint. Sounds like you're still optimistic lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Is the GEFS and GFS the same model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Yes that is true. A slower ejection of the main wave out of the SW would also be better for us too. Where are you located anyways? I fear even a slower ejection won't end up better for what she said.. I fear it could still really cut west of us if it wants.. That blocking just doesn't strike me as a brick wall like sometimes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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