Nelson Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 That is true...but at the same time, a ~989 mb low is also a mean of the members. So, the members with a 10+" swath are probably sub-985...which isn't a very impressive max snowfall amount with such a low pressure. If I recall correctly, the infamous January 1999 blizzard never dropped below 999 mb as it moved northeast from IN into MI, yet it dropped 16+" of snow in some areas, and 10+" over a very large area. So, when you see a low that is significantly deeper than this coming together in a few days, it gets your hopes up a bit. Of course every storm is different...but it's frustrating for all of us (whether in MSP, MKE, Chicago, Detroit, QC, etc.) when it seems like everything has to come together absolutely perfectly to get a decent spread-the-wealth storm...or even a decent big dog for a localized area. That's fine for November or March...but it shouldn't be that difficult in DJF. If one town gets 10" of snow in an early Feb snowstorm (with most others getting 4-8" or less), it's really not that impressive. Bottom line - this storm had big hopes when the models were spitting out 20" totals a few days ago. Even so - although it seems like we've been watching this for awhile, there is still a bit of time for things to change. It's been said many times, but I wouldn't get too caught up in amounts at this point. They are going to vary from model run to model. The key right now is slp placement - everything else will fall in line as the time gets closer. Once Sunday night rolls around, then we can start worrying about what models are showing for totals. That said, there are many examples in the past where storms have outproduced model output. It's all good. Sit back and enjoy the ride. It seems likely that someone in the sub will do well with this storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman1952 Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Where do you find the DGEX snowfall map? The only one I can find is the 06Z one from this morning. Here is one website with the DGEX http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/dgexops.conus/eta.snow_animate.html and another: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/dgexops.conus/eta.snow_animate.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman1952 Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 12z GGEM works for me... me too, Lets lock it in. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 me too, Lets lock it in. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Pretty much all models work for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Here is one website with the DGEX http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/dgexops.conus/eta.snow_animate.html and another: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/dgexops.conus/eta.snow_animate.html Thanks, but those are the ones I could already see. I guess there's just more waiting time to see the new runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 I vote for Winter Storm Woodstock. That was the city in Illinois that the movie 'Groundhog Day' was filmed and it has benefitted from the past two GHD winter storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Thought I'd do a little research on how similar this system is to our Dec. 28th storm. There are some very interesting similarities: The top map is from that system. The second map is the most recent GFS run for our upcoming storm. Check out the last map showing some of the tracks predicted for that system. Amazing how similar they are for this predicted system. Some things to think about for what might happen...cold air supply this go around? There is some snowpack established now compared to then....the position of other low pressures and high pressures... EDIT: Having some difficulty getting the last map on here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Haha^ that or they should have named in Phil. I don't think anyone north of Chicago or in Chicago should thrown in the towel yet. The system still doesn't get in for about 100 hours yet. With the sleet and snowstorm there was some last minute tugs ( within 36 hours) to the east/southeast with the low. Only trying to add perspective here... I check this forum before and after work. I look forward to you guys' analysis. The swings for me happen suddenly and all at once when I catch up on 4+ pages at a time. Yesterday, the snow was trending Chicago's way, today it is not...When this thread was started, the snow was way NW of Chicago up in MN Point being, you guys are so invested in tracking the storms (it's a good thing, I love it) that I think sometimes you guys live with the systems minute by minute. You all are so sensitive to new information and subtle changes in the models. But I also know from following you all for so long that I may come home tomorrow and see a bunch of pictures of weenies and it all might be back on for a certain area. Again, just perspective. I appreciate you all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 I did some digging around in the 12/28 storm thread to and a lot of us were noting little differences in track. For example here, 25 mile shift in the 18z GFS could mean 12" or 1". ORD could go to 6" if things sway south by that short distance. We are just not close enough yet. I'm hoping Sunday will be the day to say, so and so will likely get x amount of snow. EPS snowfall maps. A lot of them looking good still for warning criteria snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 I'm not throwing in the towel on a warning criteria event yet here. Today's runs certainly weren't as much eye candy as last night's 00z/06z guidance, but things haven't changed enough to keep it from reverting back in that direction in subsequent runs. If I were going with my gut I still think the best snows line up from Iowa into WI, with our area getting a decent advisory type snow. This does look like one of the more rare systems (for this area) regarding front end snowfall. Like I said a few nights ago we tend to have very short duration "thumps" before quickly mixing over to something else. Like Geos and others mentioned, it's going to be very entertaining from this point on now that the NAM gets to play. Do you work at NWS DVN? I've seen AFD's from DVN with the "gut" word, hence it made me wonder if it was you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Only trying to add perspective here... I check this forum before and after work. I look forward to you guys' analysis. The swings for me happen suddenly and all at once when I catch up on 4+ pages at a time. Yesterday, the snow was trending Chicago's way, today it is not...When this thread was started, the snow was way NW of Chicago up in MN Point being, you guys are so invested in tracking the storms (it's a good thing, I love it) that I think sometimes you guys live with the systems minute by minute. You all are so sensitive to new information and subtle changes in the models. But I also know from following you all for so long that I may come home tomorrow and see a bunch of pictures of weenies and it all might be back on for a certain area. Again, just perspective. I appreciate you all. Nice post - I think you just defined "weenie". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Only trying to add perspective here... I check this forum before and after work. I look forward to you guys' analysis. The swings for me happen suddenly and all at once when I catch up on 4+ pages at a time. Yesterday, the snow was trending Chicago's way, today it is not...When this thread was started, the snow was way NW of Chicago up in MN Point being, you guys are so invested in tracking the storms (it's a good thing, I love it) that I think sometimes you guys live with the systems minute by minute. You all are so sensitive to new information and subtle changes in the models. But I also know from following you all for so long that I may come home tomorrow and see a bunch of pictures of weenies and it all might be back on for a certain area. Again, just perspective. I appreciate you all. Nonsense. I've been consistently riding last Sunday's 18Z GFS which put 7-9 inches down IMBY. Never wavered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 00Z NAM says... what sunday system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 NAM came in weaker with first wave. Still has snow for WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 That was a fast punt to the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Saukville wants a foot or more. He loves snow. I'll take whatever...i think i end up with something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 78 hour NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Comparing it to the 90 hr. map for snowfall off of the 18Z GFS, it looks VERY similar in location and path of snowfall. Future runs may follow very close to GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 h96 CIPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 h96 Mean Snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 h96 Mean Snowfall Looks pretty good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 The NAM would actually bring a half inch to three quarters of inch of rain to Northern Lower Michigan from the Sunday system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Comparing it to the 90 hr. map for snowfall off of the 18Z GFS, it looks VERY similar in location and path of snowfall. Future runs may follow very close to GFS.It's actually very close to CMC snowfall area in KS. GFS was up into Nebraska a lot more by this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 It's actually very close to CMC snowfall area in KS. GFS was up into Nebraska a lot more by this time. gem_asnow_us_16.png I see your point. It's sort of in between the two, but definitely closer to the CMC. It doesn't start "the turn north" into Iowa...at least not yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 I see your point. It's sort of in between the two, but definitely closer to the CMC. It doesn't start "the turn north" into Iowa...at least not yet. If the track is the same on the 6z runs, KC is going to get blasted and only the GEM shows that happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 I see your point. It's sort of in between the two, but definitely closer to the CMC. It doesn't start "the turn north" into Iowa...at least not yet. GFS and ECMWF are little less, exepcting rain but don't think it'l dent the 24"+ snowpack to much. Monday LES kicks i before this system heads are way. Still curious as to how strong the first wave will be and what effect it may have on the Tues/Wed system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 21z sref mean.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Wagons west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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